October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Jesse]

Euro was way too cold for today and tomorrow down here, as well.

Wednesday now looks like our best shot at 70 this week.

[BLI snowman]

Wednesday now looks like our best shot at 70 this week.

Today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for the trifecta. Could splash a few more on with the ridge on the 24th and pre-Halloween torch.

[Jesse]

Today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for the trifecta. Could splash a few more on with the ridge on the 24th and pre-Halloween torch.

Hard for me to imagine today topping 66-67.

 

Time well till!!

[ShawniganLake]

Beautiful day today!

[Jesse]

Beautiful day today!

Pretty gorgeous out for sure. I always love the way the high clouds look this time of year, against the colorful foliage.

[BLI snowman]

Hard for me to imagine today topping 66-67.

 

Time well till!!

Likely tracking for 68-69. 70 would take a slight overachievement at this point.

[Jesse]

Likely tracking for 68-69. 70 would take a slight overachievement at this point.

There's always tomorrow, but I can smell a looming high cloud disaster.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 52 here after a low of 35. 

[Jesse]

EPS seems to want to keep heights more suppressed next week.

[Jesse]

PDX 61 as of 2pm.  Surprise 80??

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Beautiful day today!

 

Approaching 60F here.

[ShawniganLake]

Approaching 60F here.

59 here after a low of 38.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4th freeze of the month at EUG.

[Kayla]

GFS was way better with snow amounts and the snow level this week than the Euro. The Euro was way too cold and overdone.

 

I was speaking more on the overall upper level pattern. ECMWF does seem to trend on the cool side at the surface most of the of time though.

[Kayla]

You gonna go out on a limb for warmest October on record?

 

It's funny how testy you get when warm anomalies are in the forecast. 

[stuffradio]

Pretty gorgeous out for sure. I always love the way the high clouds look this time of year, against the colorful foliage.

The foliage around here is turning a dark yellow and red colour.

[Jesse]

It's funny how testy you get when warm anomalies are in the forecast.

Yes, that's it.

[Front Ranger]

4th freeze of the month at EUG.

 

Five at station of the gods.

[Timmy]

PDX 61 as of 2pm. Surprise 80??

Unlikely

[Jesse]

Unlikely

Sunday evening quarterback.

[Deweydog]

Sunday evening quarterback.

Jesse with a sports reference???

[Timmy]

Pretty neat seeing all that snow over santiam pass today. There was a surprising amount between 2000-3000’

[Front Ranger]

Jesse with a sports reference???

 

Weird year, throw climo out the window.

[Deweydog]

Weird year, throw climo out the window.

Except the cold October/cold everything else combo thingy. Keep that.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty neat seeing all that snow over santiam pass today. There was a surprising amount between 2000-3000’

 

How much was there at Marion Forks?

 

My friend went up to Olallie Lake at 4800' and said there was 8" on the ground. I have camped up there toward the end of October with no snow on the ground. 

[BLI snowman]

Bullet dodged!!

[Timmy]

How much was there at Marion Forks?

 

My friend went up to Olallie Lake at 4800' and said there was 8" on the ground. I have camped up there toward the end of October with no snow on the ground.

Not sure where exactly that is. I remember seeing snow a mile or two after seeing the 2000’ elevation sign.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect fall day for the pumpkin patch and a little wine tasting in the Snoqualmie Valley... could not have been more perfect and it seems like many people agreed judging by the number of people out there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure where exactly that is. I remember seeing snow a mile or two after seeing the 2000’ elevation sign.

 

Probably snow there then. It is about 2400', there is a restaurant on the right if you are going towards Bend, and a fish hatchery and campground on the left. Its about 15 miles or so west of the pass. 

[ShawniganLake]

GFS has shifted the heaviest rain a little to the south for the upcoming week.

[snow_wizard]

Now this is what I'm talking about!  Some nice old school sheet right there.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

I was amazed to see how much snow was on the mountains above Snoqualmie Pass this weekend.  I've seen dustings this early, but that was an onslaught.  The pass itself had some snow on the ground, and some was left even today.

[stuffradio]

Some snow forecasts this week for central BC show 150+ cm of snow. That's 4.3 feet+.

[snow_wizard]

Just as I suspected...the GFS is now showing the first shortwave digging in a bit deeper than previous runs which opens the door for the second (more impressive) trough to dig in a bit deeper also.  I have been suspicious of that first shortwave for a few days now.  There was just no reason for it to not dig deeper than modeled.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is certainly looking iffy for any ridging any time soon.  A couple of shots with thicknesses dropping to 540 or lower now.

[Jesse]

I was amazed to see how much snow was on the mountains above Snoqualmie Pass this weekend. I've seen dustings this early, but that was an onslaught. The pass itself had some snow on the ground, and some was left even today.

The snow in the mountains has been incredible for this early. 

 

Here are some shots from Oregon Hikers (a hiking forum I visit) showing Indian Heaven this weekend. This is the same hike I posted pictures of last Sunday. This area sits around 4,000 ft and looks to have about 1.5-2 ft of snow on the ground now. There was none when we were up there last weekend.

 

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Impressive pics!  

[snow_wizard]

The snow in the mountains has been incredible.

 

Here are some shots from Oregon Hikers (a hiking forum I visit) showing Indian Heaven this weekend. This is the same hike I posted pictures of last Sunday. This area sits around 4,000 ft and looks to have about 1.5-2 feet of snow on the ground now.

 

 

Insane for this time of year.  This is bordering on (if not) historic.  That trough was something special.  That would have been a huge snowmaker for the lowlands in the winter.  Nice pics BTW.

[TT-SEA]

The GFS is certainly looking iffy for any ridging any time soon.  A couple of shots with thicknesses dropping to 540 or lower now.

 

GFS and GEM both show ridging building starting around day 7 (10/22) which is the same time the EPS has been showing for numerous runs.  How it evolves or how long it lasts is obviously not clear though.

 

GFS:

 

 

GEM:

 

[Deweydog]

A delightful Halloween on the 00z.

 

#setitandforgetit!