October 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Deweydog]

Feels a bit like 2005. Cool Sep 15-Oct 15 period transitioned to a mild soup right around this time. Lasted a couple weeks.

12-1-05 redux on the way???

[TT-SEA]

Feels like the Huskies are going to follow the Cougs lead and blow a game they should win.

[wx_statman]

12-1-05 redux on the way???

One can hope! A fake WSW is more fun than no WSW at all.....

[ShawniganLake]

Feels a bit like 2005. Cool Sep 15-Oct 15 period transitioned to a mild soup right around this time. Lasted a couple weeks.

I’ll take a pass on that winter. Lame.

[Jesse]

Feels a bit like 2005. Cool Sep 15-Oct 15 period transitioned to a mild soup right around this time. Lasted a couple weeks.

Maybe a little. Although the first half of that October was milder overall than this one.

[Deweydog]

Maybe a little. Although the first half of that October was milder overall than this one.

Cooling climate?

[wx_statman]

I’ll take a pass on that winter. Lame.

That January was epic. Just not in the right direction...

[Deweydog]

That January was epic. Just not in the right direction...

#55alive!

[ShawniganLake]

That January was epic. Just not in the right direction...

That was one warm Christmas too. 60 on Christmas Eve here, tied for the warmest December day ever.

[wx_statman]

#55alive!

 

I can't figure out what that means.

[Deweydog]

I can't figure out what that means.

55 straight positive anomalies at PDX.

[stuffradio]

00Z GFS says VancouverIslandSouth will have no more drought by Halloween.

[wx_statman]

55 straight positive anomalies at PDX.

Oh yeah. I knew that once. I zeroed in on the 50 day run without a freeze and couldn’t figure out the remainder.

[Phil]

00Z GFS says VancouverIslandSouth will have no more drought by Halloween.

Grabbed this from your twitter post.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F32C88C6-BA6F-4A97-8D3C-EA15D286D406_zpsyiakntuk.jpg

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS says VancouverIslandSouth will have no more drought by Halloween.

 

 

What about here??   Will the mushrooms sprouting in my sopping wet lawn get enough rain?    

[TT-SEA]

Most of NW Oregon may not see rain until Thursday. 

 

00Z ECMWF says you are close to being right.   There is a little bit on Tuesday night down there but almost all the action is in BC and WA until Thursday.

 

And for your house it might be Thursday evening.

[stuffradio]

00Z NCEP WPC going with 5+" of rain over the next 7 days, maybe only 2+ for VancouverIsland South and western WA.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty typical to have the fire hose pointed more north at this juncture. Last October was really unusual in that regard.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z NCEP WPC going with 5+" of rain over the next 7 days, maybe only 2+ for VancouverIsland South and western WA.

Euro looks ridiculously wet for BC and NW Washington.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looks ridiculously wet for BC.

 

It is... and dirtier with the ridge later on particularly up there.

[ShawniganLake]

[wx_statman]

Pretty typical to have the fire hose pointed more north at this juncture. Last October was really unusual in that regard.

 

Seems like the entire N. Pac pattern was suppressed last October. The main city in the southern Kuriles (Yuzhno-Kurilsk) located just off the Hokkaido coast set a monthly record low last Oct with 26 degrees. This is a location that averages 56/47 in October with the strong seasonal lag from the East Asian monsoon. 

[Deweydog]

Seems like the entire N. Pac pattern was suppressed last October. The main city in the southern Kuriles (Yuzhno-Kurilsk) located just off the Sapporo coast set a monthly record low last Oct with 26 degrees. This is a location that averages 56/47 in October with the strong seasonal lag from the East Asian monsoon.

Followed by a significant period of jet suppression for us a couple months later. Hmm.

[Phil]

#GooFuS

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/31DD0E2D-C8A3-4753-914A-9D16C70AEF01_zpsdhb5ub0t.jpg

[Geos]

Not as cold this morning. 39° right now before sunrise.

[TT-SEA]

Not as cold this morning. 39° right now before sunrise.

 

43 here... but only 35 down in the valley.   Colder than I was expecting down there.  

[Thunder98]

It's 33F at CDA. Weather turns wet in a few days there, Only went up to 41F on Friday.

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Another low in the 30s at PDX.

 

35 here with light frost on the cars and rooftops. There appears to be some fog building in now too.

[Jesse]

Cooling climate?

October 2005 held the record for second warmest average October minimum at PDX (49.9) before 2014, 2015 and 2016 came along!! Those were all 50+.

[stuffradio]

6Z GFS just slightly wet, 1 foot of rain through the next 7 days for me.

[TT-SEA]

GFS now looks like the ECMWF for early next week.   Even with the strange cut-off low around AZ and NM it has shown on some recent runs...

 

[Kayla]

GFS now looks like the ECMWF for early next week.   Even with the strange cut-off low around AZ and NM it has shown on some recent runs...

 

 

Looks like the ECMWF weeklies led the way on the ridge development followed by the EPS and now the GFS. Once again proving the superiority of the ECWMF.

 

Looks like it could get quite torchy out this way as well.

[Jesse]

Looks like the ECMWF weeklies led the way on the ridge development followed by the EPS and now the GFS. Once again proving the superiority of the ECWMF.

 

Looks like it could get quite torchy out this way as well.

You gonna go out on a limb for warmest October on record?

[DareDuck]

Looks like the ECMWF weeklies led the way on the ridge development followed by the EPS and now the GFS. Once again proving the superiority of the ECWMF.

 

Looks like it could get quite torchy out this way as well.

GFS was way better with snow amounts and the snow level this week than the Euro. The Euro was way too cold and overdone.

[BLI snowman]

GFS was way better with snow amounts and the snow level this week than the Euro. The Euro was way too cold and overdone.

 

Euro was way too cold for today and tomorrow down here, as well. 

[BLI snowman]

Looking like we might not actually see much rain the rest of the month south of Chehalis or so. Just dying fronts in OR and southern WA before the big ridge flip.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z sure looks warm and ridgy!

[ShawniganLake]

12z sure looks warm and ridgy!

Looks like we might only have a couple of “Cool” days left this month.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Only down to 44F here last night. So far there haven't been any sub-40F lows, the coldest has been a single 40F night.

[Jesse]

Euro seems to hint at the potential for a clipper at the end of the run. Seems like a reasonable progression after flat ridging.