November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The amount of blocking being advertised on the modeling is a pleasant sight to see.  We haven't seen maps like these in years!  I'm thrilled that the East Asian connection is working out like a charm.  The going LR forecast continues to evolve quite nicely and the middle of the month "pullback", if you want to call it that, will be a brief 2-3 day period, and the strength of the warming will be dependent on your location.  The farther north and east you are, esp near the Upper MW/GL's, it may not warm as much due to the developing -NAO.  The bi-polar wx of the central Plains will likely warm up the most.

 

It was the idea that the Bearing Sea ridge would poke NW and extend westward towards Siberia, N/NE of the Sea of Okhotsk, that would translate to an eastern Canadian ridge/Greenland Block.  This, of course, will now become a dominant North American pattern later next week.

 

I would not expect to see anything different to close out the month of November as the pattern locks in for a long period.  The Japan trough through the extended suggests December to open up very stormy/cold.

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Low 20s here - amazing to see the leaves falling off the trees - just constant dropping after the real cold - I suspect a good couple of gusts of wind would finish the job quickly.

That's funny, you and I both are on the same page this morning!  As the sun was rising earlier this am I happened to notice intermittent shadows coming into my room and it caught my attention.  I looked outside my window thinking someone was walking up to my house or walking on the sidewalk but it was the falling leaves blocking the sunlight.  It looks so peaceful with a calm wind to see the leaves gently falling down off the trees.

 

I took some pics from the heavy frost this morning....

[Niko]

That's funny, you and I both are on the same page this morning!  As the sun was rising earlier this am I happened to notice intermittent shadows coming into my room and it caught my attention.  I looked outside my window thinking someone was walking up to my house or walking on the sidewalk but it was the falling leaves blocking the sunlight.  It looks so peaceful with a calm wind to see the leaves gently falling down off the trees.

 

I took some pics from the heavy frost this morning....

Ahhhh...the beauty of frost.

[james1976]

Yeah we had heavy frost here too. Almost looked like a light snow cover. Got down to 17 in a couple spots on my way to work!

[Minny_Weather]

This time last year, a high in the upper 50s was "cold" here. This year, a high in the upper 50s means apocalyptic warmth. 

 

23 on my balcony at 7am this morning. Water glass still completely liquid. I have a feeling that won't be the case after tomorrow night. I predict that it won't completely freeze till December. Car was so covered in frost that I could see out of any windows.

[VMB443]

That's funny, you and I both are on the same page this morning!  As the sun was rising earlier this am I happened to notice intermittent shadows coming into my room and it caught my attention.  I looked outside my window thinking someone was walking up to my house or walking on the sidewalk but it was the falling leaves blocking the sunlight.  It looks so peaceful with a calm wind to see the leaves gently falling down off the trees.

 

I took some pics from the heavy frost this morning....

Yeah, check this out - first picture was of a tree at 8:02 this morning, second pic the same tree at 9:02 - at times it was dropping hundreds of leaves per minute - really impressive.

[jaster220]

  My former commute route across M-72 thru Kalkaska is going to get hosed over the next couple days. NAM showing a Lakes Nipigon->Superior->Michigan streamer connection on a (fairly rare) NNW LL flow vector. I'll never forget the morning there was zero flakes until just a few miles outside of town, and by the time I was passing thru there had to be a fresh 20" of fluffy LES. All the new vehicles on the dealer lot were so buried it just looked like mounds of snow, couldn't tell there were cars underneath. It'll be that scenario again if the NAM has a clue.

 

Look for some hefty totals up there if this verifies:

 

 

 

[james1976]

Yeah, check this out - first picture was of a tree at 8:02 this morning, second pic the same tree at 9:02 - at times it was dropping hundreds of leaves per minute - really impressive.

Whoa! Good observation

[Hawkeye]

Low 20s here this morning, the second time we've reached that temp.  The airport, of course, hit 18.  The NWS is calling for 15 Friday morning.

 

I'm still waiting for my neighbor's big oak tree to drop its leaves, so I can collect them for my garden.

[Tom]

Yeah, check this out - first picture was of a tree at 8:02 this morning, second pic the same tree at 9:02 - at times it was dropping hundreds of leaves per minute - really impressive.

Same thing happening over here.  The leaves are falling off the trees constantly and almost looks like big fat snow flakes!  Lol...really cool observation.  All the trees that had nice color yesterday have leafs piling up underneath them.  It's really a treat to see without the wind and looks quite tranquil and majestic with the gorgeous color.

[Tom]

  My former commute route across M-72 thru Kalkaska is going to get hosed over the next couple days. NAM showing a Lakes Nipigon->Superior->Michigan streamer connection on a (fairly rare) NNW LL flow vector. I'll never forget the morning there was zero flakes until just a few miles outside of town, and by the time I was passing thru there had to be a fresh 20" of fluffy LES. All the new vehicles on the dealer lot were so buried it just looked like mounds of snow, couldn't tell there were cars underneath. It'll be that scenario again if the NAM has a clue.

 

Look for some hefty totals up there if this verifies:

 

20171108 6z 48hr NAM precip rate.png

I'm anticipating an epic start to the lake snows this season.  Things are really looking fantastic for the snow belt regions of the GL's.  In fact, the parade of HP's that have been sliding west/east this season I expect to see more frequent LES on the WI/IL shores of LM.  Pretty stoked to have that opportunity to enhance snow fall totals lakeside this season.

[gabel23]

This morning Gary Lezak's team had this to say about the end of November!! 

 

There are still signs of a change after the 20th as not only are the AO and NAO forecast to go negative which increases the chance of blocking at high latitudes (increases the chance of cold air farther south, lower heights and bigger/slower storm systems), but we also expect storm systems to drop in to the southwest USA as we believe the pattern is about to show it’s cycle of 45ish days. This means the systems from October 7-20 will be showing up and when coupled with negative AO and NAO could make for some interesting weather to round out November, just not on Thanksgiving.

[Tom]

12z Euro hinting at a more formidable system out in the Plains with a defo-band (ish) feature swinging through E NE/S IA/N MO...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_6hr_precip_mw_96.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_6hr_precip_mw_102.png

 

 

Not much snow, but it could trend colder...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_114.png

[james1976]

Potential for record cold highs tomorrow according to DMX.

[james1976]

12z Euro hinting at a more formidable system out in the Plains with a defo-band (ish) feature swinging through E NE/S IA/N MO...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_6hr_precip_mw_96.png

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_6hr_precip_mw_102.png

 

 

Not much snow, but it could trend colder...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_114.png

You know...it almost looked like 12z GFS was trying to develop a backside band but ut was extremely light and was in E IA into IL.

[Tom]

12z Euro is increasingly looking very fascinating and continues to show me the harmonics in the LRC pattern.  I'll wait another day or two, but I'll show you all what I'm looking at.  To add to this, throw in the amount of blocking now being advertised and this pattern is going to be loaded with fun and games right around the 18th/19th.  The North American pattern is going to SLOW down so much its incredible, allowing for storms to dig and intensify.  Just wow.

[Niko]

A very pleasant 48F currently. Gorgeous day outside for yard work and Winter preparations.

[Minny_Weather]

12z Euro hinting at a more formidable system out in the Plains with a defo-band (ish) feature swinging through E NE/S IA/N MO...

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017110812/mw/ecmwf_6hr_precip_mw_96.png

 

I will be overjoyed if this happens. I don't even care what type of precip it falls as. Just something that indicates moisture.

[jaster220]

"12z Euro hinting at a more formidable system out in the Plains with a defo-band (ish) feature swinging through E NE/S IA/N MO..."

 

 

But my 300 hrs of zzz's would be a goner!

[jaster220]

So, this be gettin better now. Verbatim, that streamer would be a really close call for Marshall. Hmm..

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Here comes the cold front. Still 37F here but 19 in Fargo and 16 at Int’l Falls. Expecting up to 1” of snow tonight and then the real chill sets in tomorrow night. Currently 11F in the grids.

[Madtown]

LRC.....this attic front arrives on Christmas eve? Brrrrrrrrrr

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I don't see any real potential for snow here this month. Since the start of the new LRC we have gotten nearly no precip and not a single ensemble member for GEFS or EPS are showing anything here thru Thanksgiving week. It's what we're used to by now, I guess.

 

Edit: Okay, just kidding. 3/50 EPS members show semi-respectable snowfall here.

[Andrew NE]

I am curious to why Gary is so vocal about the thanksgiving and beyond timeframe. He is usually very cautious this time of year to make any sort of bold calls until he knows the first cycle is complete on the new LRC.

 

@LNK weather we may have to rely on some seasonal differences in the LRC cycles as I am getting a bit concerned with our 3rd week of no precip and looks to continue in the 7-10 day at least.

[Andrew NE]

On a side note, I'm very quilty of watching models daily this time of year and it sure is nice to have them come in that hour earlier, it makes a world of difference.

[Niko]

Currently @ 32F. Very calm evening outside. Wind at 0mph.

[Minny_Weather]

On a side note, I'm very quilty of watching models daily this time of year and it sure is nice to have them come in that hour earlier, it makes a world of difference.

I agree, it's awesome. The Euro coming in at noon instead of 1 actually makes more of a difference than it sounds like.

[Niko]

My lows tomorrow night are expected to be 16F and 13F for Friday night. Dang!!!! That is too extreme for November standards.

[Tom]

SW MI posters will be experiencing some intense snow squalls tomorrow evening!  The radar is going to be lit up tomorrow, esp up farther north near the U.P./ N MI.  I would not discount #thundersnow up that way.

 

Heck, I may even see some LES as the lake band pivots west into NE IL Friday am....MKE area is in the game also.  

 

 

 

 

[Money]

Yeah I don't see any real potential for snow here this month. Since the start of the new LRC we have gotten nearly no precip and not a single ensemble member for GEFS or EPS are showing anything here thru Thanksgiving week. It's what we're used to by now, I guess.

 

Edit: Okay, just kidding. 3/50 EPS members show semi-respectable snowfall here.

Honestly this is getting annoying

[Snowlover76]

Can't wait for another 5" winter in SE NE only to be followed by another underwhelming severe season

[Minny_Weather]

Honestly this is getting annoying

Just for you

 

Live here.

[Minny_Weather]

Can't wait for another 5" winter in SE NE only to be followed by another underwhelming severe season

Okay you can't deny that the 100mph straight line wind storm was awesome. I wish I could have seen that one in person.

[OKwx2k4]

Just for you

 

Live here.

Try living here instead. I'll trade you. Lol

[Minny_Weather]

Try living here instead. I'll trade you. Lol

No thanks. I don't want to both be screwed out of storm tracks AND have warmer air!

[OKwx2k4]

No thanks. I don't want to both be screwed out of storm tracks AND have warmer air!

Lol. I like your style man. Cracks me up.

[Minny_Weather]

Lol. I like your style man. Cracks me up.

I grew up where it was consistently too warm but we had wet winters. Then I came here looking for snow last Winter and that worked out well as we had what I'd guess is a normal Oklahoma Winter (78 degrees is NOT NORMAL for February here or there).

[Minny_Weather]

Turkey week should be a cold one. After yesterday's mischief, GFS is back to -AO/-NAO. Euro continues to show that however trending back towards positive around the 21st.

 

In fact, it's the most negative run yet for the GFS in regards to NAO.

 

 

 

I'd be surprised if someone in this subforum didn't get WSW level snows.

[Tom]

Who can't argue this November has had a fast start to winter???  I mean, look at the temp departure map and the current snow cover across the lower 48.  Winter always starts up north first and then begins its shift farther south. 

 

 

 

 

22.6% of the nation have snow OTG...In 2013 at this date, only 8.1% of the nation had snow OTG...the only year you can compare a similar snow coverage percentage in the last 14 years is 2003.

 

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201711/nsm_depth_2017110905_National.jpg

 

 

Nov 19th, 2003...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/200311/nsm_depth_2003110905_National.png

 

 

 

Here's a graphic comparing this year to last year....

 

 

 

 

Our sub forum covers so much area and its very difficult to be specific to one region and not the other.  For the GL's/Upper MW regions, Winter started last month!  

[Tom]

Speaking of snow, I'm getting kinda excited about this lake plume developing tomorrow across N IN which will pivot towards Chitown and hopefully give some members over here a "taste" of their first real snow.