November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[james1976]

That was a helluva run. If that verifies Winter will officially be underway.

That system is back for some of us on the 22nd-23rd as well.

[westMJim]

Well somewhat  related to the hinted cold that could be coming

 I have looked at all of the November’s going back to 1893 and if the current maximum of 53° so far here at Grand Rapids holds up it will tie for the coldest maximum for November in Grand Rapids recorded history. The 53° maximum would match the 53° for the coldest November maximum last set in 1907. So here is a complete list of November’s here in Grand Rapids where the maximum never reached 60 or better.  Along with that November snow fall and the seasons snow fall.

 

1.       1997/98             11.3’     59.8”  Strong El Nino

2.       1976/77            8.5”       70.8”  weak El Nino

3.       1969/70             14.3:     84.6”  weak El Nino

4.       1967/68              11.0”    55.1”  neutral

5.       1925/26                 8.4”    89.5”

6.       1921/22                  9.7”    44.1”

7.       1920/21                  6.5”    35.6”

8.       1919/20                  3.5”     56.9”

9.       1907/08                  0.0      43.7”

At this time the warmest it has gotten this November is 53° IF this holds it will tie 1907 for the coldest maximum and be only the 10^th time in recorded history that Grand Rapids did not reach 60 or better in November. And IF the current snow fall total stays below 3.5” it will be the 2^nd least snowy of the colder November’s

 

While not a map here is some idea of what the temperatures could be like for the next 15 day (at Grand Rapids)

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KGRR

 

Not sure that may update automatically 

[james1976]

Annnnnnnd.......here comes the stratus deck with the CAA. Was sunny all morning with upper 40s. Stiff north wind now and temps have fallen to low 40s. I love watching that roll in.

[Tom]

Nice, 12z Euro trending the right way by Day 6...you can clearly see the ridging building in W N.A each run....although, it's doing the typical holding to much energy near the Rockies and a cut off low is down near TX.

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Shades of 2013??? Current SST's showing anomalous warming in the N PAC...AKA "The Blob"...

 

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.11.13.2017.gif

 

 

More pronounced warmth than Nov '13 around this time...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.11.14.2013.gif

That really is a beautiful looking Niña.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS temperature at noon on Black Friday: 20

 

Euro temperature here at the same time and date: 57

 

Think there's a bit of conflict?

 

Let's see some more GFS runs before we get our hopes up. Right now, GFS' solution is more contradictory to the pattern. Not saying it won't happen, but it's an outlier at this point. Most GEFS members aren't even fully on board.

[Minny_Weather]

If you want to have an eyegasm, here's the full GFS barney rampage.

 

[OKwx2k4]

Yeah!. Most fun GFS run I've had in a long time. I'm thinking I'll hunt deer in some type of wintry wx.

[Tom]

12z EPS trending Week 2 towards the western NAMER ridge and a big time Bearing Sea trough!  Glad to see...colder looking eastern CONUS overall.

[jaster220]

  Per latest update from KGRR, this sounds nice:

 

 

 

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 110 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Widespread IFR cigs/vsbys will continue this afternoon. Even
though the heavier rain will shift off to the east soon, the
lower cigs and ocnl drizzle/light rain should persist until the
cold front passes though late in the day.

Shortly after Fropa (roughly 21z at MKG and 00Z at JXN) we will
see cigs improve to MVFR levels and vsbys to at or above 6 miles.
The winds will shift westerly and become strong with gusts of
25-35 kts tonight.

Lake effect snow and rain showers will develop behind the
front tonight but was not confident enough to go with reduced
vsbys in snow. The DGZ is not saturated in the fcst soundings and
the sfc temps hold up around 40 much of the night per latest LAMP
guidance, which supports more rain than snow.

If there were to be any decent vsby-reducing snow showers tonight
it would probably be between roughly 04Z and 08Z when a fairly
potent shortwave will be passing through the region. This feature
could briefly provide deep enough moisture to saturate the DGZ
with some convective bursts of heavier precipitation and stronger
wind gusts possible as cells pass through.

 

[james1976]

Down to 33 now! Another impressive November cold front.

[Niko]

Raining buckets out there. A chilly 39F.

[Snowlover76]

You should put a fish bowl on your patio and watch that thing Freeze over....lol...

 

Disclaimer: For your viewing pleasure...

Oh look it shafts NE

[Madtown]

Clouds have arrived temps is dropping here

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS was a one run wonder it looks like. D**n.

[Tom]

12z GFS was a one run wonder it looks like. d**n.

Just wait, it comes back at 00z...flip through the 18z/06z and 00z/12z.. you can see similar runs...better data on 00z/12z runs.

[bud2380]

The storm is still there on the 18z, it's just not as cold at the outset and not as well organized.  

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2017111518/USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_252.gif

[Tom]

The storm is still there on the 18z, it's just not as cold at the outset and not as well organized.  

 

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2017111518/USA_PCPPRSTMP_850mb_252.gif

Just an FYI, you can't copy and paste Instantwxmaps bc they don't show.  You need to save them and then upload.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Just wait, it comes back at 00z...flip through the 18z/06z and 00z/12z.. you can see similar runs...better data on 00z/12z runs.

No other run besides todays 12z had that though. 

[bud2380]

Just an FYI, you can't copy and paste Instantwxmaps bc they don't show.  You need to save them and then upload.

i knew that used to be the case but I tried it anyway.  Initially it posted on my end, but now it's not there anymore.  

[Tom]

No other run besides todays 12z had that though. 

I feel that we are getting closer to the period and the models are now just beginning to pick up on the western NAMER ridge which follows the cycling pattern.  IMO, this is something we have to monitor and see if the ridging in the NE PAC blossoms like it did in the last harmonic cycle.

 

You can see the 48hr GFS 500mb trends here...

 

[OKwx2k4]

There has been a storm there in various model runs for a couple of days now. 00z and 12z are the only model runs that use relevant new information.

[Minny_Weather]

I'm more concerned about the cold air that 12z showed. We weren't supposed to get a storm anyway so I'm not overly concerned about that yet.

[Tom]

I'm more concerned about the cold air that 12z showed. We weren't supposed to get a storm anyway so I'm not overly concerned about that yet.

I would worry about you guys out in the Plains getting cold. Just prob not to the extreme the 12z GFS run showed. Sub freezing high temps still on the table IMO after Thanksgiving?

[james1976]

​18z wasn't that bad. Still showed hints of what the 12z run had. I bet 00z run will be closer to what we all want.

[hlcater]

​18z wasn't that bad. Still showed hints of what the 12z run had. I bet 00z run will be closer to what we all want.

an absolute. mega. blowtorch.

[james1976]

an absolute. mega. blowtorch.

I doubt it. I mean if you look at the current LRC there hasnt been a blowtorch at all. Re-cycle should start next week. Models are definitely struggling but the theme has been for them to trend colder. Last year was mostly opposite.

[Doppler_Dustin]

18z NAM is developing some impressive snow on the backside of the upcoming storm compared to earlier runs.  Maybe this will be our first inch here in Rochester.

 

[OKwx2k4]

The way this pattern will be driven, any warm ups or large ridges anywhere but the coasts (SW and northeast US) will be transient at best.

[Tom]

18z NAM is developing some impressive snow on the backside of the upcoming storm compared to earlier runs. Maybe this will be our first inch here in Rochester.

 

Welcome! Glad to see another poster here from the Rochester area. Have you already seen your first flakes?

[Minny_Weather]

Looks like it'll be sunny and boring again tomorrow. I kind of feel like going down to the capitol and protesting something. What should I protest?

[Doppler_Dustin]

Welcome! Glad to see another poster here from the Rochester area. Have you already seen your first flakes?

Thanks for the welcome!  We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it.  Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!  

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks for the welcome! We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it. Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!

Welcome!

[james1976]

Thanks for the welcome! We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it. Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!

Lol!! Nice. Welcome to the forum!

[Tom]

Thanks for the welcome! We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it. Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!

Did you make a move recently? If this is your first year here, you picked the right time. Should be a good season for snow.

[hlcater]

I doubt it. I mean if you look at the current LRC there hasnt been a blowtorch at all. Re-cycle should start next week. Models are definitely struggling but the theme has been for them to trend colder. Last year was mostly opposite.

I was being more satirical than serious

[Minny_Weather]

Thanks for the welcome!  We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it.  Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!  

Welcome! Rochester is a good spot. You get all the storms that screw us over here in Nebraska by shifting North at the last second.

[Minny_Weather]

Already hit the freezing mark here. That was fast.

[St Paul Storm]

Thanks for the welcome!  We did get a few flakes the morning of October 28th but that is it.  Moved here from Oregon to get away from 40 degree rain all winter!

 

Always nice to have another MN poster here! Rochester and the Twin Cities always compete for snowstorms it seems the last few years.

[Niko]

Picked up .50" of rainfall. Currently at 39F.