November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The strongest signal I see for North America in the long range (beyond day 8) is very cold air building up in Alaska and the Yukon. The EPS and GEFS both show this from day 8 onward.

 

I don't have time to do the research right now, but maybe wxstatman or someone else could point to some other years that featured this happening in mid November?

 

Yeah I think that cold interacting with the NE Pacific is going to get a firehose jet going at us by mid-month. I bet this month has at least one significant AR. 

[Timmy]

Beautiful drive into work today on I-90 with the surrounding hills covered in snow.

 

(As a side note, can you spot the '12'?)

21? i don’t get it. didn’t the hawks lose?

[Jesse]

Heard Seattle had a good snow event that winter!

 

Pedestrian.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like an early freeze up in the interior. This webcam is near our Cabin at Watch Lake. The Clinton weather station in the southern Cariboo has been as cold as -18F with this event.

[Jesse]

Looks like an early freeze up in the interior. This webcam is near our Cabin at Watch Lake. The Clinton weather station in the southern Cariboo has been as cold as -18F with this event.2D6FB8E5-A1D5-49E9-A5D6-1D54F847D4FB.jpeg

 

Very cool pic. Is that the lake?

 

The big fires up there over the summer must have spared this area.

[wx_statman]

Officially their greatest early November (1-10) snowfall on record.

Impressive. Also shows how much of an outlier the Oct. 1971 snowfall was.

[ShawniganLake]

Very cool pic. Is that the lake?

 

The big fires up there over the summer must have spared this area.

This is Sheridan Lake. About 10 miles NE of where we are and a much larger lake. You can’t see it in the pic, but the Elephant hill fire did burn a small portion of shore line in the far distance. That was pretty much where the fire stopped after travelling something like 50 miles from where it started.

 

This was the same view showing the fire burning in the distance near the end of August

 

 

[wx_statman]

The strongest signal I see for North America in the long range (beyond day 8) is very cold air building up in Alaska and the Yukon. The EPS and GEFS both show this from day 8 onward.

 

I don't have time to do the research right now, but maybe wxstatman or someone else could point to some other years that featured this happening in mid November?

Off the top of my head, 1956 and 2011 are a couple good examples.

[Bryant]

[Timmy Supercell]

There was about 1/4" of snow on roads this morning. I'll be sure to log that..

 

Now all of sudden it got very froggy outside, visibility down to what looks like 1/2 mile. Can't see past a handful of homes from up here.

Wait.. meant to say "foggy".. my bad.

[TT-SEA]

Sun!  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun!  

 

 

 

Beautiful. That snow will be gone in an hour or two.

[Front Ranger]

Off the top of my head, 1956 and 2011 are a couple good examples.

 

Thanks. Yeah, looking at -ENSO years where October torched in Fairbanks (2017 did) and then turned cold in November, we have 2011, 2005, 1995, 1989, 1971, 1964, 1942, and 1932. 1956 was very cold in October as well.

 

1995, 1989, and 1971 have showed up as analogs in other ways as well.

[Kayla]

Your gonna see more engine block cracking cold temps this season. You should make a video of you throwing water into the air when its 30 below. 

 

I love the snow but yeah those 30 below temps mean business! Anything below -20 starts to really wreck havoc on cars and equipment. Glad we're in our new house this year with a heated garage!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Currently 44 here. Might not make it into the 50s today. Certainly cooler than normal.

[Phil]

Thanks. Yeah, looking at -ENSO years where October torched in Fairbanks (2017 did) and then turned cold in November, we have 2011, 2005, 1995, 1989, 1971, 1964, 1942, and 1932. 1956 was very cold in October as well.

 

1995, 1989, and 1971 have showed up as analogs in other ways as well.

Lots of -QBO in there, FWIW. Only see two +QBO years.

[TT-SEA]

You just said the other day that you're a believer of the repeating pattern theory. Now you can't stop thinking how it's a bad sign? You're trying too hard

 

I am torn... I like the idea of repeating patterns but looking at all this snow makes me think we might have a warm and wet pattern in the heart of winter.  

 

I am trying hard at all... just thinking aloud as I walked around the yard in the snow.  

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous day... tale of two seasons depending on which side of the road you pick. 

 

[Phil]

Interesting stuff.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6BB71EE4-E888-4032-91C4-23ECE894E926_zpsdmjen1hh.jpg

[Jesse]

Gorgeous day... tale of two seasons depending on which side of the road you pick.

 

It’s gonna melt.

[TT-SEA]

It’s gonna melt.

 

I hope so!  

[Phil]

Man..beautiful wavetrain showing up on the modeling during week two. Recipe for a -NAM/reduced static instability integral in the tropics, should it couple to the upper level mass circulation/BDC mode.

 

In other words..blocking and a cooling globe.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is seriously wet early next week... and it shows 3-4 feet of snow in the mountains.

 

I told my sons they might be skiing by Thanksgiving weekend!  

[crf450ish]

I love the snow but yeah those 30 below temps mean business! Anything below -20 starts to really wreck havoc on cars and equipment. Glad we're in our new house this year with a heated garage!

No doubt. I put a wood stove in my uninsulated shop last fall. Needs insulation though.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Gonna head up to Hoodoo if that's the case.  Hopefully Sisters will get some flakes too. So beautiful over there in these types of winters.

[BLI snowman]

Gorgeous day... tale of two seasons depending on which side of the road you pick. 

 

 

Surprising how leafed out those trees still are.

[Front Ranger]

Interesting stuff.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6BB71EE4-E888-4032-91C4-23ECE894E926_zpsdmjen1hh.jpg

 

Pedestrian.

[Jesse]

Surprising how leafed out those trees still are.

Historic lack of freezing lows this season to date is to blame.

[BLI snowman]

Historic lack of freezing lows this season to date is to blame.

 

Only 2 degrees below average.

[Front Ranger]

12z EPS has a blowtorch +EPO pattern for much of the country by day 10, with the PNW staying just on the peripheral. 

 

[Phil]

Yup, definitely jaws music time.

 

1) Anticyclone retrogrades into Siberia.

2) East-Asian topography does its thing w/ the jet/AAM budget.

3) Throws surf zone into NAM domain.

4) High latitude blocking develops.

5) Then begins the next phase of discontinuous retrogression.

 

End result =

 

Second phase (2) of this process is clear on the d11-15 12z EPS:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/571FA86A-F47A-4061-87DB-57EDB94A5B86_zpsv1d5yzoa.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1E05B482-845E-4D73-9C02-EF12100D7E27_zpswcbbguar.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

These maps look like AR in W. Oregon time coming up...

[Phil]

The 12z EPS is super bullish by d15. Big -NAM, and increased instability/convection in the tropics/subtropics.

 

This looks like something out of the 1960s. Whether or not it actually verifies like this remains to be seen, however.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B6F92B8F-7CD9-4891-AA69-EF908B7F7BA9_zpslrghikph.png

[Phil]

These maps look like AR in W. Oregon time coming up...

Yeah, will be hard to avoid it during the transition. At least for a period of time.

 

Probably warms up afterwards (during the retrogression) before the next shot of polar air as the ridge re-establishes across the NPAC. Timing of all this remains very fluid, IMO.

[Geos]

Sun!  

 

 

 

That first pics with the yellow/orange leaves is stunning.

 

I had enough extra time to take a journey this morning up Cougar Mountain to where I found 6-7" snow totals at the top. Uploading pictures into the picture thread shortly. Snow was heavy enough to bring down tree limbs - especially ones that had leaves on them still.

[Front Ranger]

Phil, I think 1989 is one of the leading analogs right now, and as you know that led to some serious cold in the East during second half of Nov/Dec. That loading pattern in the maps above looks like it's probably headed in that general direction.

[TT-SEA]

Snow is really only melting in the direct sun... which is a limited as we approach the shortest days of the year. Very typical scene in this situation (despite being well above 40) with snow on the trees in the shade and almost gone in the sun. The rain and wind on Wednesday will take care of this though.

 

[MossMan]

Snow is really only melting in the direct sun... which is a limited as we approach the shortest days of the year. Very typical scene in this situation ( despite being well above 40) with snow on the trees in the shade and almost gone in the sun. The rain and wind on Wednesday will take care of this though.

 

I noticed at work the little bit of snow that accumulated yesterday is having a hard time melting even in the sun.

[Geos]

It was fun to watch and see which cars had more snow on them this morning. 

 

Posted the rest of the pictures from this morning in the winter picture thread. Here is some additional ones.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Snow is really only melting in the direct sun... which is a limited as we approach the shortest days of the year. Very typical scene in this situation (despite being well above 40) with snow on the trees in the shade and almost gone in the sun. The rain and wind on Wednesday will take care of this though.

 

One of the vans at work which has been in the full sun for hours with very little melting to my surprise.