Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 7 Not awful. Chilly trough http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/168/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 A major volcano when we're nearing solar minimum could trigger the cooling we've been expecting after the big Nino.Will be an interesting eruption to follow, regardless. The 1963/64 eruption started off modestly on February 19th, with viscous lava flows and ash clouds. A more explosive phase began on March 14th (IIRC), then another explosion occurs during May of 1963. It's not a guarantee the ongoing eruption will emulate the 1963/64 one. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Paper on that eruption. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.researchgate.net/publication/257428344_The_1963-1964_eruption_of_Agung_volcano_Bali_Indonesia/amp Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 8 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 8 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/192/500h_anom.na.pngCutoff bias on full display. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 9 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Not too bad. Highs in the 30s.Definite cold pool time and fake cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Not too bad. Highs in the 30s. Not bad at all. We will have chilly air in place when the inversion pattern kicks in. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Not bad at all. We will have chilly air in place when the inversion pattern kicks in.Exactly. That could manifest a nice cold pool over the Columbia Basin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017112600/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm..... That's really interesting. Normally that model isn't quite as sensitive to changes that far out. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 00z CMCE Ensembles also shows retrogression during the second half of the week 2 period. Hmmm.....Retrogression will be later than that. At earliest, maybe sometime during week 4. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The Ensembles are starting to agree on a pattern we've seen many times where a decently cold air mass moves over, then a strong ridge, inversion, cold air trapped, cold pool builds over Columbia Basin, east wind for 4+ days, and MAYBE then the ridge retrogrades back towards 150-160 W and right now I have a bit of optimism that is going to occur, but not confident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also.All 3 model camps now showing the same signal. Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Carrots? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Carrots?Baby Carrots.... for now. If this continues another 3-4 days we'll upgrade them to normal/standard sized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Baby Carrots.... for now. If this continues another 3-4 days we'll upgrade them to normal/standard sized.Then beyond that...dipped in ranch? 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Then beyond that...dipped in ranch?If good agreement persists to day 4-5 we can incorporate Ranch dip into the equation as well as Moroccan Spiced Roasted Carrot Dip, Roasted Parsnip Hummus dip, Nutty Swiss Chard and Roasted Garlic dip, and Roast Beetroot and Walnut Dip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=275164 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeInEverett Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 06z gets pretty close.. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 06z gets pretty close..Yeah. Ridge is much stronger, more amplified days 5-10. I also noticed the Greenland block is decimated after day 10. If the energy moving off Siberia is held back any, or the Greenland block weakens sooner we could potentially get into a modified backdoor blast pattern. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tenochtitlan Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Another intense wind shift here tonight. The temperature rose from 49 at midnight to 63 an hour later with roaring southeasterly winds. It's weird that it snowed three weeks ago and now it's in the lower 60s in the middle of the night, with clear skies to boot. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Moderate rain, breezy south wind, and 51 degrees currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 The ECMWF ensemble shows retrogression after day 11 also.Dude give it a rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Low frequency tremor component increasing on the live Agung seismogram. Strongest it's been yet. https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id/live/seismogram/ Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 If Agung does enter an explosive phase (which based on its eruption history, would occur ~ one month from now), all that SO^2 ejected into the stratosphere, right above the crucial WPAC/IPWP area, could change the late-winter picture, as far as the tropical convection is concerned. Agung is probably the ideal volcano to disrupt the Pacific heat budget during boreal winter. It's literally *perfectly* located. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 This does not look good at all. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 If Agung does enter an explosive phase (which based on its eruption history, would occur ~ one month from now), all that SO^2 ejected into the stratosphere, right above the crucial WPAC/IPWP area, could change the late-winter picture, as far as the tropical convection is concerned. Agung is probably the ideal volcano to disrupt the Pacific heat budget during boreal winter. It's literally *perfectly* located.Go Agung go, just don't kill anyone this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Go Agung go, just don't kill anyone this time...If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity. Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"? 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity. Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"?I don't know, I wasn't alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 If Agung maxes out, the subsequent summers might drive Tim to the brink of insanity. Wasn't 1964 the PNW version of the "year without a summer"? Yes... many, many summers will be ruined. I know my unhappiness is what drives you though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Mountain snow looking really sad this morning... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Yes... many, many summers will be ruined. I know my unhappiness is what drive you though.You're just fun to troll sometimes. I don't actually want you feel miserable, though (honestly, I don't). That would be kinda creepy/weird. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Mountain snow looking really sad this morning... At least your roses are happy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Man, you guys are gonna get hammered in January. The EHEM subtropical AAM integral is going to tank in December with the deep -NAM/Eurasian torques playing on the tropics/NPAC thereafter. #retrogression Verbatim, the closest structural-intraseasonal analogs for this upcoming January are February 1989, January 1996, and December 2008. The +QBO50 is still playing its hand. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Mountain snow looking really sad this morning... ‘Tis the season for daffodils rising ... God bless everyone!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 Man, you guys are gonna get hammered in January. The EHEM subtropical AAM integral is going to tank in December with the deep -NAM/Eurasian torques playing on the tropics/NPAC thereafter. #retrogression Verbatim, the closest structural analogs for this upcoming January are February 1989, January 1996, and December 2008.What can we do to you if you are wrong? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 26, 2017 Report Share Posted November 26, 2017 What can we do to you if you are wrong?Lol. I don't want to jinx it. If I do bust, though, I'm fair game for anything and everything. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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