PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[RentonHill]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Can't wait until we are seeing dozens of posts about the ICON and 3K NAM. 

All of these stages of the lead up have their own charm

[MossMan]

15 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

The Carlton General Store just reopened last year. Real up and coming area!!

Our friends moved to Whidbey Island last fall, they lived in Carlton for quite a while but got tired of the snow and the fire danger. Been to the house many times over the years. Wish we had the extra $$$ to buy it. 
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Carlton/2-Justin-Rd-98814/home/101634366?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Hermiston could crack the Big Six-Oh on Saturday.

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Our friends moved to Whidbey Island last fall, they lived in Carlton for quite a while but got tired of the snow and the fire danger. Been to the house many times over the years. Wish we had the extra $$$ to buy it. 
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Carlton/2-Justin-Rd-98814/home/101634366?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link 

That is a gorgeous spot!  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Hermiston could crack the Big Six-Oh on Saturday.

Looks like maybe North Bend too.  

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So many blessings upcoming. 

Summer 2023?   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Summer 2023?   

Triple-digit “blessings?”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Our friends moved to Whidbey Island last fall, they lived in Carlton for quite a while but got tired of the snow and the fire danger. Been to the house many times over the years. Wish we had the extra $$$ to buy it. 
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Carlton/2-Justin-Rd-98814/home/101634366?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link 

Nice place. Could use some trees. 

[Doinko]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Triple-digit “blessings?”

Maybe we'll reach the record number of 100 degree days in a year for the third year in a row...

[TacomaWx]

Nice sunset tonight on the ride home. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonderful extended GEFS run. Fantastic. 

Raining out. 

[TacomaWx]

Another pretty mild day today…51/42 temp spread so far down to 43 now. 

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonderful extended GEFS run. Fantastic. 

Raining out. 

Hoping we can score some snow, even just a few inches. The cold in December was really nice, we had a 23/20 day, easily the coldest since 2014. But some snow would be nice

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

We'll be seeing maps like this soon

Crazy that Seattle got maybe two inches out of this. Wild

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

My top area is still the Winthrop/Twisp/Carlton area! Or NE Wa. 

The problem with the Winthrop area is property is extremely expensive.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The December 1924 event was one of the best for December duration. 

https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=1924&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

That event was epic.  There was 10 to 12 inches of snow in this area followed by days of very cold weather with single digit mins, and a few days around zero.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The problem with the Winthrop area is property is extremely expensive.  

That is really hard to believe as remote as it is and the lack of jobs.  Must be rich people snap it up for vacation homes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

That is really hard to believe as remote as it is and the lack of jobs.  Must be rich people snap it up for vacation homes.

Last I looked property was really expensive.  There is some very VERY high dollar homes in that area. That area was my dream location but I couldn't find what I was looking for and the prices were way out of my budget.  

[snow_wizard]

57 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Our friends moved to Whidbey Island last fall, they lived in Carlton for quite a while but got tired of the snow and the fire danger. Been to the house many times over the years. Wish we had the extra $$$ to buy it. 
https://www.redfin.com/WA/Carlton/2-Justin-Rd-98814/home/101634366?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=copy_link 

Pretty decent for $649.000.  Quite a nice chunk of land.

[SimplySmoothWX]

To me there seems to be two likely outcomes for February, based on the Februarys in recent decades.

1) The forum favorite; Major cold snap. Dry, but still snowy. Notable years of this include 2021, 2011 and 1989. 

2) A more mild, wet pattern. It's a major torch pattern for the Eastern U.S though. Notable years include 2000, 1999, and 1984.

1) Has been more prevalent in recent years

However, I'm inclined to go with 2), at least for the first week. My reason is the MJO is moving through phases 1-2 right now, and by February, it will near phases 4-5, a major torching pattern for the Eastern 2/3s. After that though, it's hard to tell what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if a cold snap drops over us around Valentines day. If one does, it won't be as severe as Feb 2021. I'm not picking up on that right now.

 

That being said, this post is intended to be left in the dirt and see how it grows. I hope into a beautiful rose! They're my favorite.

[Doinko]

It started to snow today 6 years ago. This was the WRF-GFS forecast.


Euro Forecast:



And this is what happened:






It snowed a few inches after this as well. And then it lasted for a week. PDX dropped had a 29/11 day and HIO had a 25/3 day with all of the snow on the ground.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Last I looked property was really expensive.  There is some very VERY high dollar homes in that area. That area was my dream location but I couldn't find what I was looking for and the prices were way out of my budget.  

Bummer. 

Very desirable climate.  The ratio of annual water equivalent to snowfall is about as good as it gets anywhere.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

To me there seems to be two likely outcomes for February, based on the Februarys in recent decades.

1) The forum favorite; Major cold snap. Dry, but still snowy. Notable years of this include 2021, 2011 and 1989. 

2) A more mild, wet pattern. It's a major torch pattern for the Eastern U.S though. Notable years include 2000, 1999, and 1984.

1) Has been more prevalent in recent years

However, I'm inclined to go with 2), at least for the first week. My reason is the MJO is moving through phases 1-2 right now, and by February, it will near phases 4-5, a major torching pattern for the Eastern 2/3s. After that though, it's hard to tell what happens. I wouldn't be surprised if a cold snap drops over us around Valentines day. If one does, it won't be as severe as Feb 2021. I'm not picking up on that right now.

 

That being said, this post is intended to be left in the dirt and see how it grows. I hope into a beautiful rose! They're my favorite.

I want no part of 1999 or 2000.  I still have nightmares about those winters.

[snow_wizard]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice place. Could use some trees. 

My ideal would be something like that with scattered trees.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

And yet some 2.25 million people choose to live in King County.   

There are far better places to live in this state though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

End of the run. Just MAGIC. 

[RentonHill]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

It started to snow today 6 years ago. This was the WRF-GFS forecast.


Euro Forecast:



And this is what happened:






It snowed a few inches after this as well. And then it lasted for a week. PDX dropped had a 29/11 day and HIO had a 25/3 day with all of the snow on the ground.

 

Where do you get those old model forecasts ? Do you have them saved?

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Had 32 with frost here this morning. Utterly amazing how much warmer it’s been up that way. 

Eh.  It all sucks on this side of the Cascades. 

Whatcom County is almost acceptable I suppose.

[Doinko]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

Where do you get those old model forecasts ? Do you have them saved?

Mark Nelsen's old blog posts, he posts some model forecasts usually before an event.
Expect Some Snow Tonight | FOX 12 Weather Blog (wordpress.com)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There are far better places to live in this state though.

I want to leave western Washington so bad I'm close to selling a bunch of my stuff, down sizing and either find someone to run my business or just close. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Eh.  It all sucks on this side of the Cascades. 

Whatcom County is almost acceptable I suppose.

And my wife says I am negative...

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I want to leave western Washington so bad I'm close to selling a bunch of my stuff, down sizing and either find someone to run my business or just close. 

That sounds pretty serious.  Kind of interesting how we have both reached this point so close to the same time.  For me it's been building up for years though.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

And my wife says I am negative...

I think others on this forum will reach the point I have eventually.  It just wears you out after a while.

[Deweydog]

Didn’t it just snow up north a few weeks ago?

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This explains what happened in January. 

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/how-to-think-clearly-about-climate-change.html

Oh brother.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I think others on this forum will reach the point I have eventually.  It just wears you out after a while.

I guess living outside of town insulates me from some things after a while. I would like some colder winters and all, but we get plenty of snow up here and my mortgage is extremely affordable, so that helps. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Didn’t it just snow up north a few weeks ago?

It did.  Just not doing it for me and several others on here though.  These bummer Januarys are getting really old.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Oh brother.

I really hope you read it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

There are far better places to live in this state though.

Actions speak louder than words. In which county do you reside?

[icyasf]

I personally don’t think I could live in a climate where snow is very common. Don’t get me wrong I love snow and cold but something about getting snow in the western lowlands just feels more exciting because it’s harder to get. :)