Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Back to the LOL GFS Day 9'er 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GFS is trash GFS did this in December too. And then it caved to the other models. Much weaker with blocking this time and last time compared to the other models 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Already having flashbacks to December when the GFS never really got on board at this range while euro was dropping those bombs all down the west coast 5-6 days out 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 7 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro is going to be a jaw dropper, brain buster, knock your socks-off kind of run. Make sure you put your socks on BEFORE 9:44 PM even 1 minute before initialization at 9:45 PM to be safe. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Doinko said: GFS did this in December too. And then it caved to the other models. Much weaker with blocking this time and last time compared to the other models Lolz just posted the same. Except if I recall it wasn’t completely wrong because it never showed the full blasts like the others were. It had stupid runs and whatever it was showing didn’t really verify but the fact it was so stubborn should have been a clue 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 hour ago, joelgombiner said: I just completed my PhD last summer, part of which is focused on the history of the Okanogan Lobe (The Puget Lobe's neighbor east of the Cascades) (https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/49189). From my perspective, we are still in the very early stages of understanding the Cordilleran Ice Sheet. Weather and climate during the glaciation and deglaciation is a big question mark... but it was obviously much colder and/or much snowier for glaciers to have grown to the extent they did. Part of the reason I'm on this forum is to learn more about weather and climate in this region to understand the geologic history of the ice sheets. I found something online a while back that talked about the weather in the Puget Sound area before the glaciation and that was just as fascinating as the glaciation itself. It spoke of sage brush, sub alpine trees and precip amounts maybe only 30% of current normals. They were able to guess on how much colder it was than present just south of the maximum southern extent of the glaciation, based on pollen samples, and it was something like 14 degrees lower than present. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Gradient Keeper said: Euro is going to be a jaw dropper, brain buster, knock your socks-off kind of run. Make sure you put your socks on BEFORE 9:44 PM even 1 minute before initialization at 9:45 PM to be safe. If Euro matches GEM this place will be nutz. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GFS kinda going to the December route. LRC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Doinko said: GFS did this in December too. And then it caved to the other models. Much weaker with blocking this time and last time compared to the other models Yup. Too anemic with the block. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Lolz just posted the same. Except if I recall it wasn’t completely wrong because it never showed the full blasts like the others were. It had stupid runs and whatever it was showing didn’t really verify but the fact it was so stubborn should have been a clue I think it kind of ended up being a compromise of the later GFS solutions and those crazy Euro runs. I think the Euro got the idea of that weaker ridge driving the cold air farther south but the GFS was farther east while the Euro dropped a huge arctic airmass over us but I'm nto sure. At least this seems like a less crazy setup so far at least 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: GFS kinda going to the December route. LRC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This whole thing does kind of fit the LRC come to think of it. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Doinko said: I think it kind of ended up being a compromise of the later GFS solutions and those crazy Euro runs. The Euro got the idea of that weaker ridge driving the cold air farther south but the GFS was farther east while the Euro dropped a huge arctic airmass over us. At least this seems like a less crazy setup so far at least Would just feel a lot better if ensembles were all aboard. Maybe they will be after tonight. Sure hope so!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 10 LOL 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Doinko said: That is straight up orgasmic. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said: Day 10 LOL Looks like it took a bad acid trip on this run. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 GEFS, some progress already. Way better than 0z. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Can't help but laugh at the GEM dropping an arctic bomb. It's on the table right now. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: GEFS progress already. Way better than 0z. I think this is third straight run with improvement. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Down to 33.1 now. Probably going to pull off 5 consecutive freezing mins...In January!!! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's on the table right now. I've seen GEM drop arctic nukes like that all the time, it always moderates. I'll wait until the Euro. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: Down to 33.1 now. Probably going to pull off 5 consecutive freezing mins...In January!!! 2031st 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: Down to 33.1 now. Probably going to pull off 5 consecutive freezing mins...In January!!! At has been chilly in mid January! I'm at 33 as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 144hours 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: I've seen GEM drop arctic nukes like that all the time, it always moderates. I'll wait until the Euro. The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support. Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with. 6 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Really impressive improvement on the GEFS when looking at the 12z, 18z, and 0z.  All noticeably better than the previous. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: I've seen GEM drop arctic nukes like that all the time, it always moderates. I'll wait until the Euro. It was right in November 2010. Nailed that thing to the wall. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Deweydog said: The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support. Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with. Hmmm I was thinking it looked more like 2023 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The GEM absolutely loves to get all cyclogenic with reloads especially, despite waning block support. Tonight’s run is almost a spitting image of the 1989 event at a 500mb perspective, just gets there via a different path. As a result, it has far less cold air to work with. On this one it keeps that block pumped up really nicely though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days. GFS needs to lose one of the nuts on its cockNball ridge formation 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 00z GEFS Day 5.5 (4-run trend) 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Not terrible from Seattle south. 4 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I have angered the weather gods somehow. 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days. Doesn't carve a notch out of the ridge over Alaska like GFS does. Could still go bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, snow_wizard said: Not terrible from Seattle south. You do realize there’s no snow for randy? 2 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Some ice too 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Maybe I’m crazy, but the GFS/GEFS look like they’re in lock step through six days. The GEFS is colder on 850s. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies!  Winter 2023-24 stats  Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I have angered the weather gods somehow. You must give 50% of your snow. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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