Jump to content
The Weather Forums

PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion


Recommended Posts

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its more related to blocky extremes.   We just had near record-setting cold spread across the US.   

Watch out for summer 2023.   

We’ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened. 

C9FB772A-44A2-453E-BB9F-58A8B5B5088D.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

We’ll look back at this next summer and glad this happened. 

C9FB772A-44A2-453E-BB9F-58A8B5B5088D.png

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The models are having serious trouble making up their minds whether the high latitude heights will be above or below normal as we get into the middle third of the month.  That ends up having big implications on how the pattern evolves after day 10.  The SSW can't hurt in that regard.

Unlatched

  • Like 1

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
Just now, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.   How could it be totally up in the air now?   

  • lol 2
  • Snow 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Unlatched

I knew you were going to say something.  Didn't waste much time either!

  • Weenie 1
  • Facepalm 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was just going to mention this... yesterday it was latched down and settled.   How could it be totally up in the air now?   

Some aspects are staying pretty consistent such as the high moving off of Asia that ends up amplifying over the Pacific.  The details are widely varied though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The million dollar question is whether or not the big rains in CA this winter indicate we have gone through a major regime shift.  If so, next summer may be a lot different than recent ones.  Still a good chance that won't be the case though.

2016/17 was very wet in CA and we torched that summer like usual

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At this point the ECMWF has been slowly taming down the winds expected with the east wind event centered around Wednesday.  My guess is places that are having east winds today will be about 50% stronger winds on Wednesday than today.  An exception may be North Bend which had some pretty strong gusts today.  I think places more like here and Enumclaw will be the ones to see the stronger winds on Wednesday.

Eh-- looks basically unchanged down here the past few days. Should be a purely downslope event with some decent upper level support.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I knew you were going to say something.  Didn't waste much time either!

Looks like a nino-esque hodgepodge until further notice to me.

  • Like 4

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Got very foggy all of a sudden. 

FF8031AE-C3DF-4783-87D1-9FD3D785077B.jpeg

 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Posted (edited)

Made it out to Lake Goodwin for the first time since October…The water level is slightly higher than the last time I was here. Forgot to put my fishing boat up on the concrete, oops. Seems okay and will deal with it in the spring. Nice day! 

DF52869B-18FF-40A6-AC0C-88B32A762175.jpeg

3518844B-9297-49CF-A375-643590EF022E.jpeg

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff

12Z EPS was really wet for CA over the next 15 days... and a little drier than normal up here. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-west-qpf_anom_15day_mm-3956800.png

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40F with some light rain.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 22-23 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 31F (Dec 22, 2022)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Nov 19, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 29 (Most recent: Jan 24, 2023)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 20, 2023)
  • Total snowfall: 0.25" (graupel)
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 1, 2022 (mostly graupel)
  • Last sub-freezing high: Dec 22, 2022 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 40.2"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 1

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @363jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

CA is the new Seattle

It was 80 degrees on Christmas down there.   

  • lol 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

Pathetic GFS run. 

  • Sick 1
  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Winter storm warning for 6-15 inches. 18z GFS has finally got the axis placement closer to the other models and nails me with 20 inches. 18z RGEM was at 22 inches and 18z Euro was at 17.

It was dumping snow for a little while but has lightened up a bit now. Looks like a couple inches already but the big stuff will be rolling through tomorrow morning. Thundersnow and 2-3 inch/hr rates are possible by then. It should be a doozy.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2941600.png

rgem-all-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2930800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-2898400.png

Saw this and thought of you... 

Screenshot_20230102-161716_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z GEFS came out pretty good.  Decent -PNA late in the run.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

250 inches of snow in places😯

14BC1B1A-7F2A-4A60-AD5F-C23C6E36E43A.png

C7B13FA7-E685-43CE-A92F-18946D96FB62.png

Pretty ridiculous how fast Mother Nature can even things out.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we all need some eye candy right now! 😍

1675987200-3ZZQ14lBREY.png

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All of the big stations had a nice minus departure today.  I'll take anything on the cold side of the ledger we can get in January.

Nice 50 degree high at SEA with some sunshine.     If its not cold and snowing then low 50s and sun is pretty enjoyable.    Tangible experiences are more important to me than just stats.  ;) 

  • Like 2
  • Downvote 1
  • Facepalm 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think we all need some eye candy right now! 😍

1675987200-3ZZQ14lBREY.png

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

38/30 today. Temp dropped to 34 when precip moved in but it was just rain. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow 

 

 

Wow!  Almost sounds like Jan 1862.  Too bad we don't have the cold NW piece of the puzzle as well.  Maybe that will just be delayed a bit though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Staff
2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has watered down the east wind event to where it's only what I would call high end average for such things.  Pretty remarkable given the strength of the low that's in play.  The details just don't pan out for it to get really big.

Great news.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks nice. Snowing up in February so

it might happen. 

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer

PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Longtimer
Just now, snow_wizard said:

I still think a decent chunk of this month is in play.

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 13.9"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't ever recall all of CA getting hit like this.  The map is only 90 hours worth.

1673006400-zyb3eBptpFo.png

  • Like 4
  • Rain 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmm… IDK about decent chunk. Maybe a few days. 

I was thinking 7 to 10 days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX 44/32

SLE 40/34

EUG 43/35

Kind of nice surprise today.  Other than the lame max at SEA...pretty decent.  Even they dropped to 29 on the low though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.5"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 10

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.4"

Coldest Low = 17

Lows 32 or below = 43

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 2

Highs 40 or below = 17

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...