PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

R.I.P Ken block. I know many of you don't know who is is but he was one of the best race car drivers in the world, rally car racing and a bunch of other stuff. Lost his life in a snowmobile crash. 

I wasn't familiar with him, but read an article and seems like he was a really solid and interesting dude.

[Deweydog]

This winter has been rather calamitous. Between Buffalo, Jeremy Renner and now Ken Block.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This winter has been rather calamitous. Between Buffalo, Jeremy Renner and now Ken Block.

Bay area NWS seems to think they're up next.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just was reading the bay area discussion. They are making it sound like the end of the world. I do not know much about that area but has it ever rained there before?

[Phil]

It’s early enough that things can change, but this isn’t the sort of VP signature you’d expect from a decaying La Niña. Quite the opposite, in fact.

Maybe we go the 2000/01-2002/03 route, and the transition to El Niño is a long, slow process? Based on the solar cycle/IPWP relationship, you wouldn’t expect the next IPWP extension for another ~ 2 years at least, so that may also argue for a slower and/or dampened transition into +ENSO & associated WP extension.

[Phil]

That +TNH/Baffin vortex pattern that had relentlessly tormented the SW US for the last decade has (thus far) failed to show its face this winter.

Last winter at this time we were looking at a full blown +NAO/+TNH rex block with no southern stream influence whatsoever in the SW US.

Much better pattern so far this winter. Hadley Cell setup is at least somewhat less “scary” than last year. So far. Not saying it’s like 2018/19 (+ENSO), but it’s definitely better than the last 2 years, esp considering it’s a La Niña low pass regime at the moment.

[Phil]

Badly needed.

 

[LowerGarfield]

Still getting whatever frozen precipitation this is. Not sure if still graupel or sleet. Getting a bit more.if.it but alas lunch is over.

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Actually did get some snow in January up this way last year, but it was the slushy, sloppy variety. Even when it was falling it was clear that the cold snap was waning and would soon be over.

Agree with your general outlook. Not really expecting this month to deliver much in the way of snow. If it does, it will probably be in the final few days as part of a cold snap that straddles months.

We had ~14” in early January last year.  Pretty good chance this January is warmer and less snowy than last year here.  

[BLI snowman]

Last measurable snow in January here over a dusting was 1/11/2017....

[Deweydog]

18z coming soon!

[Slushy Inch]

It's something.

[Christensen87]

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Strait of Juan De Fuca, North Coast, Central
  Coast and East Puget Sound Lowlands.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

[Hawksfan2008]

15 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Western Strait of Juan De Fuca, North Coast, Central
  Coast and East Puget Sound Lowlands.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Anyone pay attention to which models seem to handle east wind events the best? They are all over the place with this setup… 

[LowerGarfield]

Trying to get my spouse to investigate the dusting. I'm curious to see what precipitation has fallen. It's on the branches as well.

[LowerGarfield]

My wife went outside and based on what she told me I think it's probably sleet.

[Doinko]

We had snow today 7 years ago

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

24 minutes ago, Chris said:

For the west coast at least, the results this winter seem more ninoesque than nina.

December with the cold and snow is Nina like.  And there was also a lot of snow and cooler weather in November. Heavy mountain snow pack also is Nina like. 

January of course with the heavy California precip is more Nino like.   

So most of the winter has been like a Nina.  But it's good to see California getting so much snow and rain now.

[Doinko]

Looks very windy tomorrow, this model is forecasting gusts over 50mph for my location

 

[Christensen87]

4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All eyes now turn towards the 12z CFS. 

Not good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Not good. 

It struggles with greatness. 

[MWG]

Low of 28F with fog. Currently 43F light rain.

[LowerGarfield]

On my last break and went outside. It is certainly snow now. Very fluffy and sticking a bit on the grass and some north facing roofs but very light. RIght at 32F now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining and 45 here in South Salem. 

[Doinko]

Looks like the MJO could move into phase 2 at some point


Here's what MJO phase 2 generally looks like in February with -ENSO...

[umadbro]

She’s a beaut

[Deweydog]

Ugh… I leave the forum for like three hours, come back and it takes me almost a minute and a half to get caught up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Doinko said:

Looks like the MJO could move into phase 2 at some point


Here's what MJO phase 2 generally looks like in February with -ENSO...

Go figure 

[The Cats Meow]

January 20th is when we slide back into the freezer.

Mark it down.

[NWbyNW]

6 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

R.I.P Ken block. I know many of you don't know who is is but he was one of the best race car drivers in the world, rally car racing and a bunch of other stuff. Lost his life in a snowmobile crash. 

I'm glad someone brought this up.  I am a major motorsports fans and have brought it up motorsports a few times in the sports banter thread, but there's no traction if you ain't talking NFL or baseball there.  It's really sad what happened to him.

It honestly feels like you always hear about a lot of famous people dying right at the end and beginning of a new year.  

[NWbyNW]

3 hours ago, Doinko said:

Looks very windy tomorrow, this model is forecasting gusts over 50mph for my location

 

You should check out some of the wind models for N. California tomorrow and tonight.  Strong winds plus saturated ground, tons of rain, it's going to be messy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This forum is a straight up ghost town. 

[MikeInEverett]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This forum is a straight up ghost town. 

Lots of people probably taking a break. There definitely hasn’t been a shortage of model riding this winter. Basically since late October it’s been pretty consistent with a few short breaks in between events. This looks like it’ll be the longest break this winter.

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, MillCreekMike said:

Lots of people probably taking a break. There definitely hasn’t been a shortage of model riding this winter. Basically since late October it’s been pretty consistent with a few short breaks in between events. This looks like it’ll be the longest break this winter.

Eye of the storm.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Anyone pay attention to which models seem to handle east wind events the best? They are all over the place with this setup… 

The ECMWF has been very consistent.  Gusts to 50 or so in the windiest areas more near the West Slopes of the Cascades.  This will be a decent blow, but not really destructive I'm thinking.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF has been very consistent.  Gusts to 50 or so in the windiest areas more near the West Slopes of the Cascades.  This will be a decent blow, but not really destructive I'm thinking.

What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Eye of the storm.

I'm thinking so.  This upcoming SSW looks like a big deal.  Certainly enough to shake up the pattern.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

What does the Euro show for here? The WRF-GFS is showing 50mph+ gusts for my location.

Where are you in relation to Portland?

[snow_wizard]

The long range GEFS control was really nice today.

[Slushy Inch]

30 day averages. 18z CFS was much better.