December 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Niko]

More snow chances over the next couple of days. As a matter of fact....I am forecasted to receive snow Fri-night and again on Saturday w couple of inches to accumulate.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

Great posts, as always, and I can tell you're enthused again! Most you've posted in quite a while. Time to get the rest of y'all into this winterfest party that kicked-off over here in the Mitten a week ago. Nice to see Plains peeps with something more positive on the table. And what's this about building a snow-pack? SMI is a beautiful winter wonderland this morning with the fresh plowed banks. 8-12+ base via multiple rounds and the 2nd snow day for Marshall schools this week! In my youth, it was pretty rare to get a snow day before Christmas, even in the vaunted 70's    

 

Ofc, I've got rain in my forecast looming and bad memories of last year's melt-down, so now it's about how much we lose after our awesome start. Hopefully not all of it.. 

[Money]

Jaster/Niko love rubbing in their snow depth

 

Ha

[Tom]

Ceiling and visibility have come down some in the Black Hills over the last few minutes; but still just an occasional flurry.  Perhaps the daytime heating with produce a bit of convective lift to cause some snow showers.

 

Tom, I was wondering, do you have the map that shows The Way to San Jose?

 

I sure don't, but would you want to order one??  Assuming you are referring to the 500mb maps??  

 

 

@ Tom

 

Great posts, as always, and I can tell you're enthused again! Most you've posted in quite a while. Time to get the rest of y'all into this winterfest party that kicked-off over here in the Mitten a week ago. Nice to see Plains peeps with something more positive on the table. And what's this about building a snow-pack? SMI is a beautiful winter wonderland this morning with the fresh plowed banks. 8-12+ base via multiple rounds and the 2nd snow day for Marshall schools this week! In my youth, it was pretty rare to get a snow day before Christmas, even in the vaunted 70's    

 

Ofc, I've got rain in my forecast looming and bad memories of last year's melt-down, so now it's about how much we lose after our awesome start. Hopefully not all of it.. 

I'll be honest, this week has been hectic as I picked up a side job and I'm running around all day and don't usually get back home till late and by then I'm beat.  I try to post early in the am when I'm up early as I've become an early riser these days.  Speaking of the pattern heading towards the Winter Solstice, this is def intriguing me to finally be able to feel a bit better scoring a snow system of significance.  Gotta jet!  Will be back here later this evening.  Adios!

[westMJim]

I had a low here at my house of -2° still waiting on the official low at GRR so far the low there is 0° and that is the coldest it has officially been here in Grand Rapids since March5, 2015. If they report that it got down to -1° or lower that would be not only the first time it has gotten below zero since February 28^th 2015 and it would tie the record for today (Dec 14)  The official reported snow fall at GRR yesterday is 5.9” GRR is now at 10.9” for the month and 11.5” for the season. At Muskegon yesterday 4.8” was reported and they are at 12.4” for the month in the center of the state Lansing reported 5.7” and is now at 9.2 for the month and 9.6” for the season. Over on the east side of the state Flint reported 7.9” and they are at 11.0” for the month. Detroit reported 6.3” and they now have 12.4” for the month and Saginaw recorded 6.1” and are now at 8.1” for the month. Here at my house I have 8” on the ground.

[westMJim]

Climatology for today December 14th     At Grand Rapids, MI

 

The average H/L is 35/24

The record high is 59° in 2015 the coldest maximum is 12° set in 1914

The record low is -1° set in 1943 the warmest minimum is 49 set in 1975

The most precip is 1.2” in 1975

The biggest snow fall is 5.1” set in 1907 The most on the ground was 15” in 1970

Last year the H/L 22/11 2.6” of snow fell and at 7 AM there was 7” of snow on the ground

[jaster220]

Jaster/Niko love rubbing in their snow depth

 

Ha

 

..says the guy who LOL'd us for our excitement at last January's clipper..and yeah, it's been a pretty awesome week around here. You'd be excited for it as well after 2 winters of non-winter 

[Madtown]

Nothing too interesting till late next week...John Dee has even been scaling back his maps. Atleast my new weather station arrives today!

[NEJeremy]

Omaha is now at the 6th longest streak ever for no snowfall over 3" and Lincoln is at their 3rd longest streak. Last 3" snowfall for both cities was the Groundhog's Day blizzard on 2/2/16.

[jaster220]

Looks like our reprieve won't be too long over here per GRR's morning afd

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

A quieter period with temps returning to near normal values is
expected for the weekend and lasting into early next week. Then we
should turn colder again Tuesday and Wednesday with snow returning.

[St Paul Storm]

..says the guy who LOL'd us for our excitement at last January's clipper..and yeah, it's been a pretty awesome week around here. You'd be excited for it as well after 2 winters of non-winter 

Those of us with snow should be excited about it. Just like the people that don’t have it can voice their displeasure. If talking about the snow you have means you’re bragging about it, so be it I guess. Keep on keeping on, Jaster. I enjoy your posts.

[Minny_Weather]

Omaha is now at the 6th longest streak ever for no snowfall over 3" and Lincoln is at their 3rd longest streak. Last 3" snowfall for both cities was the Groundhog's Day blizzard on 2/2/16.

No kidding. Last Winter made 2013-14 look like an awesome year here.

[jaster220]

k, fantasy range (d10+) maps aren't normally my thing, but this one (timed at Christmas Eve no less) is just so picture perfect I couldn't NOT post it 

 

[james1976]

k, fantasy range (d10+) maps aren't normally my thing, but this one (timed at Christmas Eve no less) is just so picture perfect I couldn't NOT post it

 

20171214 0z 252hr GFS 500mb & precip for Dec24.jpg

Nice but that was 2 runs ago

[bud2380]

12z GFS shifted further south with the 20th/21st system.  Looks a lot like it did 2 days ago.  Gets snow as far south as southern MN.  

[Money]

..says the guy who LOL'd us for our excitement at last January's clipper..and yeah, it's been a pretty awesome week around here. You'd be excited for it as well after 2 winters of non-winter

I was just kidding

 

:/

[Minny_Weather]

12z GFS continues the flip to Winter around the 21st here. Temperature of 43 at 6am gives way to temperature of 15 at 6pm. It sucks that I'll be gone for that as wind chill values will be crazy, but it should hopefully stay when I get back after Christmas.

[May Grey]

ECMWF looks very interesting, hangs the trough back west a little too long for my liking which could have potential to cut off completely, but I like where its going along with the other models.

 

Man, we need some cold wet weather here in California! I hope this comes to fruition! The Thomas Fire is the 4th largest fire in CA history! 

[Money]

12z GFS shifted further south with the 20th/21st system. Looks a lot like it did 2 days ago. Gets snow as far south as southern MN.

CMC develops a storm that cuts up through Chicago or so

 

Ukie at hr 144 has some sort of system also

[FV-Mike]

Give Me

 

 

[bud2380]

yeah i'll take that CMC run all day.  Too bad the Euro is going to be 400 miles further north 

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017121412/174/prateptype.us_mw.png

[Tony]

Finally the models are starting to show something to track next week...about time!

[james1976]

Nice to see a bit of consensus. Hope the Euro joins the party.

[bud2380]

Total QPF from the GFS through the morning after Christmas.  This encompasses the 2 storms showing up on the GFS during this time.  One on the 20th/21st, and another on the 24th/25th.  

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121412/288/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

[james1976]

Total QPF from the GFS through the morning after Christmas. This encompasses the 2 storms showing up on the GFS during this time. One on the 20th/21st, and another on the 24th/25th.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017121412/288/qpf_acc.us_mw.png

Nebraska!

[gabel23]

I'm just looking at the SLP track, but it looks like the EURO has a nice storm around here next week at this time........

[Tom]

Taking my lunch break now and I’m glad to see the models trending towards the anticipated “Winter Solstice” storm. 12z Euro flashing a major storm from the Plains/GL’s. Should be a fun storm to track IMO.

[james1976]

I'm just looking at the SLP track, but it looks like the EURO has a nice storm around here next week at this time........

Would be amazing if all 3 models agreed on this

[Tom]

Low 980’s on the Euro near the GL’s. I expect to see adjustments in track as the models digest a tanking -EPO. Lots of cold air around and this thing has explosive potential.

[Minny_Weather]

From what has come of the run so far, while Euro does give Lincoln some nuisance snow from the Solstice system, it's not the most favorable model run due to not exactly being hard on cold. We'll see once the run is finished. 

[james1976]

Taking my lunch break now and I’m glad to see the models trending towards the anticipated “Winter Solstice” storm. 12z Euro flashing a major storm from the Plains/GL’s. Should be a fun storm to track IMO.

This system, regardless of exact track, will be the beginning of the much anticipated pattern change. Finally the stupid ridge will be broken down. And right at the Solstice.

[Tom]

This system, regardless of exact track, will be the beginning of the much anticipated pattern change. Finally the stupid ridge will be broken down. And right at the Solstice.

Nature has its peculiar ways of timing, ay?

[Minny_Weather]

This system, regardless of exact track, will be the beginning of the much anticipated pattern change. Finally the stupid ridge will be broken down. And right at the Solstice.

If Euro weeklies are right, the pattern could stay active with a few quick breaks till around the second week of January, when the Western ridge pops back up and gives us a January thaw.

[Money]

All 3 models have a storm and it’s within the medium range so that’s a start

[james1976]

Whats the Euro spitting out for QPF?

[Money]

Whats the Euro spitting out for QPF?

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

 

Like .75-1 in the snowband in western and central wi

 

.5 in northern Iowa

[Minny_Weather]

Whats the Euro spitting out for QPF?

Insane amounts in NE WI / Michigan U.P. Holy hell.

[james1976]

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php

 

Like .75-1 in the snowband in western and central wi

 

.5 in northern Iowa

Good stuff!

[james1976]

Might finally have some good AFD reads this afternoon.

[St Paul Storm]

At least we’re finally inside 7 days with one of these storms. Feels like forever since we had a medium range storm to track.