December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least with screaming westerlies I can go check my rain gauge a few times a day...

[TT-SEA]

Day 9

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/216/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

 

That looks like it could be quite a marine push with that little ULL crashing the hot ridge.    Going to have be careful that day on the boat... get off the lake earlier than usual.  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC nothing like the GFS. Block much stronger and no little cut-off system moving in from the southwest.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 10

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Basically no model agreement after day 6 I'd say. Anything could happen. Westerlies breaking through, Block breaking down slightly or reorganizing a few times, or perhaps retrogression.

[Deweydog]

Basically no model agreement after day 6 I'd say. Anything could happen. Westerlies breaking through, Block breaking down slightly or reorganizing a few times, or perhaps retrogression.

They all look ridgy.

[westcoastexpat]

Basically no model agreement after day 6 I'd say. Anything could happen. Westerlies breaking through, Block breaking down slightly or reorganizing a few times, or perhaps retrogression.

 

Seems like there is model agreement to me. Maybe the fine details are a little off but there seems to be consensus of an unrelenting blocking ridge right over us. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 11 for no reason, but that eastern trough and arctic air is shifting due west and very quickly. Pretty weird. Never makes it of course.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017120400/276/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems like there is model agreement to me. Maybe the fine details are a little off but there seems to be consensus of an unrelenting blocking ridge right over us. 

Sure, through about day 6, then afterwards solutions diverge, but there are clear differences with the overall 500mb pattern, energy moving off Asia, trough placement extending south of Aleutians, how far east to 140 W line systems spin up, block amplification, how far the axis is pushed eastward, and displacement of Greenland Block.

[westcoastexpat]

Day 11 for no reason, but that eastern trough and arctic air is shifting due west and very quickly. Pretty weird. Never makes it of course.

 

Because the ridge over Greenland begins to strengthen right when the ridge over us begins to weaken. The cold pool over the east has quite a bit of cyclonic momentum during this period, resulting in rather quick westward propogation/expansion (the propogation being aided by it being dense cold/dry air)... it has nowhere to go but west given the ridge behaviour.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMC Some retrogression

 

Day 7

 

 

Day 10

[Gradient Keeper]

Because the ridge over Greenland begins to strengthen right when the ridge over us begins to weaken. The cold pool over the east has quite a bit of cyclonic momentum during this period, resulting in rather quick westward propogation/expansion (the propogation being aided by it being dense cold/dry air)... it has nowhere to go but west given the ridge behaviour.

Yep, exactly.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

YUCK

[Gradient Keeper]

Well, that was fun, said no one ever.

 

00z ECMWF in 42 minutes!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30. Could I see my first 20s of the season?

[Deweydog]

**** me in the ************* goat *** while Matt Lauer ***** his **** with a rusty golf club. I don't like these models!!!

[Timmy]

32 here already, roads are iced up

[ShawniganLake]

31F here. I’m assuming it has cleared out after dark.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS through day 12 sure looks like a barrel of fun, or barrel of monkeys, or barrel of fun monkeys....

 

00z ECMWF in 23 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

We're transitioning into perhaps the longest cold pool and east wind episode in a long, long time.

[Front Ranger]

Well, that was fun, said no one ever.

**** me in the ************* goat *** while Matt Lauer ***** his **** with a rusty golf club.

 

Where are the air stagnation enthusiasts?? This is your moment.

[Deweydog]

Where are the air stagnation enthusiasts?? This is your moment.

Albuterol stock should be on the rise.

[Gradient Keeper]

Where are the air stagnation enthusiasts?? This is your moment.

Very exciting times ahead for those in Moses Lake to Hermiston.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

32 here already, roads are iced up

 

Looks like your roses have finally met their match. Expecting to see toasted rose pictures in the morning.

[Timmy]

Looks like your roses have finally met their match. Expecting to see toasted rose pictures in the morning.

Wrong Timmy, how’s your drought?

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like your roses have finally met their match. Expecting to see toasted rose pictures in the morning.

What’s your temp at down in the big city tonight?

[stuffradio]

Looks like your roses have finally met their match. Expecting to see toasted rose pictures in the morning.

If you're going to troll, at least troll the right person.

 

33F here right now.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 2

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/048/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Beastly looking block

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/072/500h_anom.na.png

[TT-SEA]

Looks like your roses have finally met their match. Expecting to see toasted rose pictures in the morning.

 

Maybe... its still 37 here with some clouds.  

 

If not tonight... tomorrow night is a lock.

[TT-SEA]

Where are the air stagnation enthusiasts?? This is your moment.

 

I think Jesse and Jim are smog enthusiasts in the cold season.  

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting that the control models on both the EPS and GEFS had really good runs today.  The 12z EPS and the 0z GEFS.  I think we are getting close to meaningful changes showing up on the operationals.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/096/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of interesting that the control models on both the EPS and GEFS had really good runs today.  The 12z EPS and the 0z GEFS.  I think we are getting close to meaningful changes showing up on the operationals.

 

About this time in 1980 we were heading into a nice little event up here. It would have generated high hopes for the winter ahead!

[Gradient Keeper]

Kind of interesting that the control models on both the EPS and GEFS had really good runs today.  The 12z EPS and the 0z GEFS.  I think we are getting close to meaningful changes showing up on the operationals.

I agree I see some signs of that too. Cautiously optimistic

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1648-fall-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=278263

[ShawniganLake]

Kind of interesting that the control models on both the EPS and GEFS had really good runs today. The 12z EPS and the 0z GEFS. I think we are getting close to meaningful changes showing up on the operationals.

What are the “control” models.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120400/120/500h_anom.na.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What’s your temp at down in the big city tonight?

 

Currently cloudy and 39F, I doubt it drops below freezing here tonight.

[Phil]

Toss this Euro run. Waaay too much SW dig in the rear quadrant there.