December Weather In the PNW

[MossMan]

Sure would be nice if the GFS and Euro would get on board with the GEM. The GFS 0Z is even worse than the 18Z.

Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern.

[Deweydog]

Fog?

(Insert cool kid suicide reference response here)

[Winterdog]

Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern.

The GEM can show whatever but it really doesn't mean much to me until the GFS and the Euro both show a similar pattern.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Uncle Jesse?

dukes of hazard.

[Deweydog]

The GEM can show whatever but it really doesn't mean much to me until the GFS and the Euro both show a similar pattern.

If you look outside and it's snowing but the GFS and Euro say it's not snowing is it snowing?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Uncle Jesse?

dukes of hazard.

The grandpa always bugged me. That ******* was in bed for, what, 20 years or whatever? The family was dirt poor and all of the sudden he has a chance to go to a candy factory and he's up and dancing in less time than it takes to sing a song about golden tickets. He could have been out there doing something to help make ends meet.

I feel the same. **** that old bastard.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let's hope the commonwealth of the crown can deliver a royal flush

O Canada!

[Winterdog]

If you look outside and it's snowing but the GFS and Euro say it's not snowing is it snowing?

Let me ask Rob.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Models are having a rough go of the evolving complex pattern.

They are but the CMC has trended way way colder 2 runs now. It has to mean something. The CMC could end up looking like a total genius.

[Timmy]

Boy the gfs is a stinker

[MikeInEverett]

GFS: Consistently inconsistent

[TT-SEA]

The good news is that there is absolutely no trend in any direction yet.   Everything is just flip flopping all over the place.   

 

I guess we can say the CMC is trending colder.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

00z UKMET through day 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[BLI snowman]

GFS and GEM both look dumb, for different reasons. Euro is going to school them both.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've never cared for the GEM. Found it exceedingly useless. It saying this means almost nothing to me....ALMOST....Definitely adds to the intrigue and angst!

[Deweydog]

Anybody wanna talk politics?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z UKMET through day 6.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

Looks great!

[Kayla]

I've never cared for the GEM. Found it exceedingly useless. It saying this means almost nothing to me....ALMOST....Definitely adds to the intrigue and angst!

 

Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though.

Yep, and UKMET also scores higher more often than the GFS

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yet it scores consistently higher than the GFS... It does have a high moisture bias though.

 

It was actually never as bullish on the cold last winter. 

[Timmy]

It was actually never as bullish on the cold last winter.

True I remember wanting to discount it when the gfs was showing the goods and the gem wasn’t a lot last winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

True I remember wanting to discount it when the gfs was showing the goods and the gem wasn’t a lot last winter

 

It seemed like the GFS was generally right, but it could just be selective memory.

[Deweydog]

It seemed like the GFS was generally right, but it could just be selective memory.

All the models got fooled late last Decemeber with handling the splitting energy going into the New Year's event.

[ShawniganLake]

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is a battle for international supremacy!

[snow_wizard]

00z UKMET through day 6.

 

 

I think the GFS laid a turd on this run.  The 12z Euro, 12z CMC, 0z CMC, and 18z GFS ensembles all showed great promise for this time frame.

[ShawniganLake]

People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower

 

7CA92932-C1DD-4625-9CB1-0B0FF1DA4900.gif

 

Good to see all that snow in the mountains!

[Parksvillewx]

People on central Vancouver Island are gonna need to borrow Tim’s snow blower

 

7CA92932-C1DD-4625-9CB1-0B0FF1DA4900.gif

 

 

That'd be a nice Pre-Christmas suprise.

[ShawniganLake]

That'd be a nice Pre-Christmas suprise.

Do you have any elevation at your location?

[snow_wizard]

Yep, and UKMET also scores higher more often than the GFS

 

I'm betting the GFS ends up being the outlier of the night.  It shows a feature that should cause the retrogression shown on the GEM, but it fails.

[Jesse]

F0D8C33E-E0A9-4477-A55D-5983F1E44475.png

 

C432994E-F1E5-4A5F-BF9F-80B10A0B0BFA.png

Similar.

[HighlandExperience]

I guess at least the mountains will get some new POW

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble all of a sudden shows 850s staying below -4 for 4 straight days now next week.  It's gaining momentum. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can't remember ever seeing so much ensemble spread in the mid-range.

[snow_wizard]

I can't remember ever seeing so much ensemble spread in the mid-range.

 

Huge uncertainty.  It's actually possible we could be in the freezer by the end of next week.  It's pretty typical for a last minute move like this to show up with these things.  Phil actually mentioned that possibility.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I think the GFS laid a turd on this run. The 12z Euro, 12z CMC, 0z CMC, and 18z GFS ensembles all showed great promise for this time frame.

I agree. It's not the first time the GFS has been the last one to the party.

[snow_wizard]

I agree. It's not the first time the GFS has been the last one to the party.

 

The GFS has been insanely unstable today.  No one run has looked anything like the others.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 1

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017121700/024/500h_anom.na.png

[snow_wizard]

00z ECMWF

 

Day 1

 

That is such a pretty setup.  It always leads to cold to some extent.