Phil Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 A massive blizzard in the upper Midwest next week on the GFS: Yikes. That screams ice storm here. Freezing rain w/ temps in the teens is one of the scariest weather experiences possible for a metro area. People still talk about 1994 & 1999 around here as if it were yesterday. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 My son at Snoqualmie Summit today... invincible! https://vimeo.com/248230240Hell yeah! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 My son at Snoqualmie Summit today... invincible! https://vimeo.com/248230240Me a few year's ago on my 300hp snowmobile. Yes 300hp. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 My invinsable feeling went away when my wife passed. Before that i was crazy on dirt bikes and snowmobiles, 2 years ago i jumped my polaris razer utv 102 feet down at the oregon dunes. Love seing pics like that Tim. Man to be 16 again!!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Serious torching in Alaska this month, the result of all that N. Pacific ridging. Anchorage is running a +12.4 departure. Also had 4 straight days with maximums of 45+ (12/10 to 12/13). First time that's happened in December. That stretch also featured a low of 37 on the 11th, tying the monthly warm record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 12z EPS for KSEA and KPDX show the ensemble mean sitting right at one inch of snow for Christmas Day. http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122012/city/KSEA_2017122012_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122012/city/KPDX_2017122012_forecast_EPS_precip_360.pngWow, a white Christmas is certainly possible now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Me a few year's ago on my 300hp snowmobile. Yes 300hp.What's that "white stuff" in the background? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted December 20, 2017 Report Share Posted December 20, 2017 Yikes. That screams ice storm here.Freezing rain w/ temps in the teens is one of the scariest weather experiences possible for a metro area. People still talk about 1994 & 1999 around here as if it were yesterday.sure does also would scream niña almost to a tee as ice storms and change over events are a bench mark in a lot of winter's here isolated with la niña years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 In the short term all eyes on the Alaskan shortwave now seen on IR/WV Loops. If we want any chance of a last minute sudden change it's to hope this strengthens as much as possible as it would then dig nicely down the BC Coast. I will say at first glance it looks "decent" right now. System looks okay. Sharply defined front hmmm. Not expecting anything, but I will keep an eye on it. 00z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes6z NAM in 6 hours 49 minutes Loop> http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/alaska_realtime_ch4&image_width=1020&image_height=720 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/lindsey/loops/alaska_realtime_ch4/20ch4.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 18z GFS just a tad too warm for snow even here. Roughly showing a 37 degree rain right now. Just need the next few runs to come in a tad colder each time. NAM showing snow north in the lowland at least for Friday. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 This is the most uncertain forecast 3-4 days out I can remember in a long time. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 This is the most uncertain forecast 3-4 days out I can remember in a long time. Something big is coming. Something we haven't seen since 1950 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Down to 29 already! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 34 here already. Going to be in the 20s tonight for sure. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Still 40 in Eugene. With northerly flow we should get down to freezing. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 37/31 here today. Back at the house tonight. Talked to the people at the store, they said we got about 1/4" of snow early this morning. Drive up on the ridge this afternoon and there were a couple inches up there around 2000'. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Still 40 in Eugene. With northerly flow we should get down to freezing. Fox 12 is predicting a high of 35 at SLE and EUG tomorrow. NWS predicting SLE 34EUG 33 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 3km NAM shows Friday as starting with a mix or some ZR briefly before going all rain around PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Talk about one of the worst cases of model teasing and taunting that I've ever seen. Past experience tells us that if this keeps up long enough something big will eventually materialize. The ECMWF might be onto something that would cause a huge pattern shakeup. It depicts a strong MJO wave emerging in region 2 by early January. One possible reason the ECMWF wants to de-amplify the pattern during week two is the fact the current MJO wave gets quite weak and shortcuts through regions 8 and 1. If the forecast of a strong wave emerging in 2 is correct we could be looking at a very desirable strong wave in regions 2 through 5 for a good part of January. Many of our great cold waves come with a strong wave in region 5. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 3km NAM shows Friday as starting with a mix or some ZR briefly before going all rain around PDX. I could see almost everyone getting a dusting at some point in the next 7-10 days. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just read the last four pages and the best thing I got out of it was “ there's something Big out there, something we haven’t seen since 1950!” The rest of the pages had.... Dude Sweet 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 In the short term all eyes on the Alaskan shortwave now seen on IR/WV Loops. If we want any chance of a last minute sudden change it's to hope this strengthens as much as possible as it would then dig nicely down the BC Coast. I will say at first glance it looks "decent" right now. System looks okay. Sharply defined front hmmm. Not expecting anything, but I will keep an eye on it. 00z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes6z NAM in 6 hours 49 minutes Loop> http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/alaska_realtime_ch4&image_width=1020&image_height=720 http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/dev/lindsey/loops/alaska_realtime_ch4/20ch4.gifStrengthen....... to go down the coast. HmmmmUsually they strengthen and curve north, is there toad venom at play? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Another comment about the MJO...The recent wave that went through region 5 had a pretty weird result with the blocking setting up much further east than would normally be the case. That could be due to the fact the wave emerged in 4 instead of over the Indian Ocean and then progressing to the Maritime Continent. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Already 31 at OLM. 1 at Cut Bank, MT. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Already 31 at OLM. 1 at Cut Bank, MT. OLM seems very warm now that you made that comparison. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z NAM HR 45 cold/arctic air backed into BC a few notches further west than 18z, 12z Here was 12z and 00z tonight - Very noticeable you can see the contours clearing digging back 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Down to 32 here with frost on my car windows already. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Talk about one of the worst cases of model teasing and taunting that I've ever seen. Past experience tells us that if this keeps up long enough something big will eventually materialize. The ECMWF might be onto something that would cause a huge pattern shakeup. It depicts a strong MJO wave emerging in region 2 by early January. One possible reason the ECMWF wants to de-amplify the pattern during week two is the fact the current MJO wave gets quite weak and shortcuts through regions 8 and 1. If the forecast of a strong wave emerging in 2 is correct we could be looking at a very desirable strong wave in regions 2 through 5 for a good part of January. Many of our great cold waves come with a strong wave in region 5.I've said it before and will say it again. Epic winters are a lot easier to call months in advance rather than weeks/days. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 HR 57 bit more noticeable now. Here was 18z and 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liquidsnow Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 There's the word "notch" again. *Drink* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z NAM HR 45 cold/arctic air backed into BC a few notches further west than 18z, 12z Here was 12z and 00z tonight - Very noticeable you can see the contours clearing digging back #notchwatch2017 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 21, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z NAM HR 45 cold/arctic air backed into BC a few notches further west than 18z, 12z Here was 12zand 00z tonight - Very noticeable you can see the contours clearing digging back NAM definitely looks more favorable for wet snow in SW WA. It has a tendency to get a little carried away.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 HR 57 bit more noticeable now. Here was 18z and 00zEdited. Correct images in now. Very noticeable now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 #notchwatch2017 Tis' the season #NogWatch2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Edited. Correct images in now. Very noticeable now. Its just playing catch up to the GFS and ECMWF... its more of an awakening than a sign of a coming adjustment across all models. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Tis' the season #NogWatch2017Drinking Nog watching notch watch! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Edited. Correct images in now. Very noticeable now.Cold air was 200-250 miles further west, but the base of the block doesn't hold far enough west to allow it to fully dig over us, but as I said with my IR Analysis earlier, this bares watching. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 00z NAM HR 45 cold/arctic air backed into BC a few notches further west than 18z, 12z It seems there has been a favorable trend today. Given the situation just tiny changes at the 500mb level could make a big difference for how much cold air we will get in here. I will be interested to see how the possible cold shot the 18z GFS showed for next week is looking on the 0z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 I truly believe the next two weeks will give us a few surprises. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2017 Report Share Posted December 21, 2017 Check out HR 66. Quite a shift to the west tonight 12zand now 00z 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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