Deweydog Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 This is a pretty weak front coming in Sunday/Monday....Wind storm cancel. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gfs caved to the nam. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Candy is dandy but liquor is quicker. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The only way to catch a doper is when you yourself become a smoker. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 You say this after being nailed last winter? I don't get it. As far as the post you were commenting on...we are still very early in the winter. I don't get the negativity on here when we have a great shot at seeing snow. It almost makes it not fun to visit the forum during these events. What is difficult to understand? Last years storm here was absolutely stunning, a weather geeks dream. I enjoyed every moment of it. It would be wonderful to have it every year. But I've lived here long enough, both Seattle and Portland for long enough to know not to expect anything like that on any given winter. We've had several winters in a row before where we saw hardly any real accumulating snow and many heart breakers before where events fall apart at the last moment. I just don't count on really getting anything on a given winter. If we get a great event, I will gladly take it and enjoy it, but I keep my bar low because the reality is that we don't live in a very snowy climate. It is very marginal. I'm not denying that this winter probably has an above average change of entertaining us, but even that hardly guarantees anything, we've had plenty of arctic outbreaks before that yield zero snow. To those who want to be optimistic about our chances, go ahead, I have no issue at all with it but I'm surprised that anyone could be confused about why someone would not hold very high hopes of an eventful winter in the PNW lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS IS A PILE. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS says portions of King County will get 6+ inches. Shows it falling mainly overnight Sunday into Christmas day. That is perfect timing. how about up north? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS IS A PILE.A pile of fluffy white puppies?? 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Easterly winds have picked up in Hood River. Temp down from 38 to 34. Still 38 here with rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 how about up north?Hope you guys can score too! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Down to 29. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I think this is coming together pretty nicely for SW WA through areas North of Seattle. NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, all favor the northern track. The Euro stands alone right now on taking things south. 00z Euro will be very telling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest El nina Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 I think this is coming together pretty nicely for SW WA through areas North of Seattle. NAM, GFS, GEM, UKMET, NAVGEM, all favor the northern track. The Euro stands alone right now on taking things south. 00z Euro will be very telling.When is the next euro run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 When is the next euro run?It starts around or just after 9:30...I think. DJ left us without a model countdown. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 It starts around or just after 9:30...I think. DJ left us without a model countdown. Thought it was closer to 10? Where is DJ? I'm surprised he isn't here at this time... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS says portions of King County will get 6+ inches. Shows it falling mainly overnight Sunday into Christmas day. That is perfect timing. I like the snow it's showing Christmas morning for King County. Classic backwash situation. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 What is difficult to understand? Last years storm here was absolutely stunning, a weather geeks dream. I enjoyed every moment of it. It would be wonderful to have it every year. But I've lived here long enough, both Seattle and Portland for long enough to know not to expect anything like that on any given winter. We've had several winters in a row before where we saw hardly any real accumulating snow and many heart breakers before where events fall apart at the last moment. I just don't count on really getting anything on a given winter. If we get a great event, I will gladly take it and enjoy it, but I keep my bar low because the reality is that we don't live in a very snowy climate. It is very marginal. I'm not denying that this winter probably has an above average change of entertaining us, but even that hardly guarantees anything, we've had plenty of arctic outbreaks before that yield zero snow. To those who want to be optimistic about our chances, go ahead, I have no issue at all with it but I'm surprised that anyone could be confused about why someone would not hold very high hopes of an eventful winter in the PNW lowlands. The deck is heavily stacked in our favor this winter and likely will be next winter too. Don't underestimate the power of a Nina winter during solar minimum. You add to that the persistent above normal heights over the GOA during the autumn and you have the recipe for a good winter here. I don't blame you for feeling the way you do though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Skew-T looks good at KSEA: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The operational run is a bit colder for Christmas Eve than previous runs. It shows less areas having rain. The amount of moisture being shown is pretty generous. Another interesting point is the current trough is verifying colder than earlier runs had shown. Nice to see things trend colder at the last minute with these. The situation next week still looks very close with us being on the back edge of that huge trough over Canada. Still potential for that to be another cold shot. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 When is the next euro run?It will start running on the free site at 10pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat! Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Classic backwash? Snowstorms are anything but classic here. Just to few and far between. Backwash, maybe we can start it as a new top ten!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Plenty. That pink bulls-eye over king county bruh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Plenty. Beautiful! Though almost every one of those maps shoes a small area of nothing right over my house for some reason... Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Plenty. Wow that looks awesome for King County. Crossing fingers on euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC staying consistent. Especially good for Pierce County Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Beautiful! Though almost every one of those maps shoes a small area of nothing right over my house for some reason...Over mine as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Over mine as well. Apparently we have been put on the naughty list. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Apparently we have been put on the naughty list.I already said you were nice earlier. It must be something else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z UKMET looks south compared to 12z run, hard to tell though. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_060_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Definitely slower on the WRF... that is usually a good thing. All the action is south during the day on Sunday which is what the ECMWF has been showing for the last couple runs. This is through 4 p.m. (waiting for the next 12 hour total map to update) Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Down to freezing here. Nice numbers. Like 7" here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 WRF still showing widespread snow over King County. Not bad totals either. Isolated 5 inch totals near Issaquah Alps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The WRF is fantastic for the East Puget Sound Lowlands for a white Christmas. I'm not sure what type the precip will be when the low center is SW of us, but once the center shifts east of the area the model depicts crashing 925mb temps with continued precip. If true it will be more than cold enough for snow. Could be a few inches with temps in the upper 20s on Christmas morning. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 You beat me to it! Nice totals for King County for sure. It is definitely moving toward the ECMWF with the sharp cut off to the north... that was not on previous WRF runs but the ECMWF has been showing that since yesterday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 If the GFS verifies the next week looks quite cold in spite of an unimpressive 500mb pattern. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 The UKmet appears to want to bring the low right over the columbia river? I am not sure, but it looks like it to me. I am only mentioning that model, because it is legit =) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Holy ! The longer range GFS looks fantastic. Major blocking setting up over the GOA. This is getting good now! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 Holy s**t! The longer range GFS looks fantastic. Major blocking setting up over the GOA. This is getting good now!? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 23, 2017 Report Share Posted December 23, 2017 28! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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