December Weather In the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What is your exact elevation Andrew?

 

My house is pretty much exactly 1600'. The top of the property is about 1620', the lower part about 1575'. 

[HighlandExperience]

 

 

WRF has some isolated areas of 5-7 inches towards the far east side. 

[Canadian guy]

You do realize that the "final prize" of his month-long retrogression was pretty close to climatologically impossible...

 

#resistresets

#westerlieswin

#blockingwillbeback

#don'tforgettofloss

 

#MLK

[Deweydog]

I was saying that all along. But he stuck to his guns. Hence the need for some ‘splainin.

Climo won.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Beautiful. I have been many places in this country but it is hard to beat the beauty of the Olympics. 

[Jesse]

Climo won.

 

D**n you're good. You should have released a winter forecast. NWS Portland has a nice climo page that would have been pretty easy to copy/paste.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

WOW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 more.

[ShawniganLake]

Windchill is -29F near our cabin in the Cariboo this morning.

[Jesse]

Windchill is -29F near our cabin in the Cariboo this morning.

Very cold air is right across the border.

[MossMan]

Still only 25 here. Beautiful frosty morning!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z isn't terrible in the super long range.

[MossMan]

12z isn't terrible in the super long range.

Perhaps Jim will be correct about the long range!

[HighlandExperience]

12z isn't terrible in the super long range.

 

Phil will be redeemed. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Phil will be redeemed.

 

Phil has the eye if the Tiger.

[High Desert Mat!]

Mark is getting ready to do another write up, I hear his fork is really shiny.

[Kayla]

Beautiful GOES-16 shot over the NW this morning of the snow cover in Eastern OR/WA and all of MT. Pretty neat to see all the mountains sticking out in OR/WA as well!

 

http://weather.cod.edu/data/satellite/regional/northwest/02/northwest.02.20171223.172724.jpg

[Jesse]

Phil will be redeemed. 

 

That long range would only be good above 1,000' or so. Cold onshore flow.

 

At 300+ hours, granted.

[TT-SEA]

Well defined snow level line on the ridge this morning from down in North Bend... 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Really? Most of the major metros have not had anything that extreme recently. Just feels like this entire period of blocking has mostly gone to waste though.

 

Of course Minnesota has done well.

Yes really... it is coming .... I think Texas is a prime example of how penetrating the cold has been this season. Much of the nation has some great stuff coming up.

 

We on the other hand have some nice climo to enjoy as we watch another great blocking regime go to waste. At least some of us get to go out with a whimper ... better than nothing though. I hope everyone can squeeze out something!

[Deweydog]

A dusting on Hwy 30 toward the coast!

[Jesse]

A dusting on Hwy 30 toward the coast!

[Jesse]

12z ensembles are ok but not great. Definitely starting to look like we can rule out Phil's 12/28-1/4 window.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

37 here. Unlikely to drop below freezing.

 

Oh well...we had a decent winter last year. Central Valley was marginal compared to S and N but one day we will get another big one here. Just won't be this winter, likely not next winter either as I've a feeling it will be +ENSO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ensembles are ok but not great. Definitely starting to look like we can rule out Phil's 12/28-1/4 window.

 

They lean heavily towards Dewey's climo. 

 

Maybe we could get something after January 5th or so. Of course our northern friends should get some snow in the short term to tide them over!

[Jesse]

They lean heavily towards Dewey's climo.

 

Maybe we could get something after January 5th or so. Of course our northern friends should get some snow in the short term to tide them over!

No amount of snow could ever sate the wanton, craving black hole that exists in the pit of some of those souls.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37 here. Unlikely to drop below freezing.

 

Oh well...we had a decent winter last year. Central Valley was marginal compared to S and N but one day we will get another big one here. Just won't be this winter, likely not next winter either as I've a feeling it will be +ENSO.

 

We could still have a good event or two, if the pattern completely resets. I am glad to see this round of blocking die. It did nothing for us.

 

Even from a nice weather standpoint this week/weekend has been terribly disappointing. On Monday we were looking at clear skies and cold temps for the weekend, the reality is gray skies and endless drizzle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well defined snow level line on the ridge this morning from down in North Bend... 

 

 

Jealous. Totally socked in here. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much weaker and farther south with the low tomorrow at 4 p.m.

 

Its still way offshore heading towards Newport at that time... and does not look like much.  

 

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through 10 p.m. tomorrow night...

 

[HighlandExperience]

Nws downplaying any snow. Just flakes

[Jesse]

East winds ramping up here. 36, dp down to 28.

 

Probably won’t get out of the 30s again today. Yesterday was 39/31 and the day before was 34/24. Decent little early winter cool spell.

[TT-SEA]

A very weak low close to Newport or even a little south of there tomorrow night at 10 p.m. and maybe a second broader low north of there?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

One consolation I take up here is that historically the timeline for bigtime snow is actually January 10-March 10. I think climo speaking persistent cold onshore flow becomes more likely after that point.

[seattleweatherguy]

Total snow through 10 p.m. tomorrow night...

 

Still something around an inch at worst

[Winterdog]

23 currently.

Had a low of 23 as well.  The snow total map for the GFS still has that blank area over us.  One of us must have mentioned this snowfall too early...  oh wait.

edit: the Euro says we get a trace to half an inch haha.  Kind of a moot point I guess

[seattleweatherguy]

Nws downplaying any snow. Just flakes

Typical nws.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through 10 a.m. on Christmas morning...

 

[HighlandExperience]

Total snow through 10 a.m. on Christmas morning...

 

Still looks great for our area.

[Timmy]

12z ensembles are ok but not great. Definitely starting to look like we can rule out Phil's 12/28-1/4 window.

What about Jim’s 100% algorithm?