December Weather In the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18Z nam is way south .

 

But Still good for snow for Puget sound.

[Perturbed Member]

The WRF GFS seems to track the low similarly to the GEM

 

 

 

Gives the PDX metro a really nice snowstorm 

 

 

 

However the sounding isn't even close to snow. I think this track would produce almost entirely sleet/ZR. Silly WRF.

 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice to see offshore flow developing across the north.

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/mwmap.php?map=sewn

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

But Still good for snow for Puget sound.

Only out to 21 hours now, you must be looking at 12Z

[Phil]

I think you win. The bellyaching that had been going on here the last few weeks is worse than any of the summer stuff.

Hmm..

[MossMan]

I think you win. The bellyaching that had been going on here the last few weeks is worse than any of the summer stuff.

Now that’s funny!!!

Currently 35 and mostly cloudy.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah it's just as if you were to draw a straight line up from 0C. I think you were referencing the saturation mixing ratio line!

 

 

FYI

 

It seems that on this particular sounding the temp lines are the diagonal dashed lines that go right. There is no way the precip type there could be snow if the 0c line were vertical. A vertical 0c line on this map would also imply a > 0C 700mb temp on this map which we know simply isn't true.

 

 

The 700mb map shows about -5c or so over PDX which is consistent with the soundings if you use the diagonal dashed lines as the temp lines

 

 

 

Some soundings represent temp lines as diagonal lines and some are vertical (like the UW WRF) according to this example:

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/forum/index.php?topic=1510.0

[Jesse]

Now that’s funny!!!

Currently 35 and mostly cloudy.

Truly flawless segway.

[TT-SEA]

Huge snowflakes here right now... looks just like the decorative snow they have falling every night in Bellevue.   

 

Still no radar.   No idea how long it will last.

 

[MossMan]

Truly flawless segway.

Thanks!!

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM is further north and goes straight to ZR for PDX it looks like. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Truly flawless segway.

[HighlandExperience]

18z puts it at mouth of columbia 

[ShawniganLake]

Huge snowflakes here right now... looks just like the decorative snow they have falling every night in Bellevue.

 

Still no radar. No idea how long it will last.

 

Looks like the UW radar is picking up showers forming near Seattle and moving your way

[FroYoBro]

18z NAM is further north and goes straight to ZR for PDX it looks like. 

Yep, it looks really good for the South Sound and other areas in Washington. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can officially report that it’s snowing at 850 feet just outside of the Bonney Lake area at a temperature of 34°

[HighlandExperience]

 

 

18 Z nam blasts Puget Sound Sound with snow

[Perturbed Member]

3km NAM going even further north?

 

[Winterdog]

18 Z nam blasts Puget Sound Sound with snow

I'd rather Oprah was forecasting than that worthless tool.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the UW radar is picking up showers forming near Seattle and moving your way

 

That is actually being picked up from the coastal radar...

 

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=lgx&product=N0R&loop=no

[Perturbed Member]

I'll take a complete non-event over a bunch of ZR. Yikes

 

[HighlandExperience]

18Z 3Km nam seems to be a blend between the GEM and the EURO. The Low eventually seems to go straight over the mouth of the columbia. That is good for Puget Sound. If I recall correctly this was the same track the UKMET took. 

 

[Jesse]

I’d believe the Euro over the NAM any day.

[ShawniganLake]

That is actually being picked up from the coastal radar...

 

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=lgx&product=N0R&loop=no

Yea. I realize that. Just meant the regional composite radar is picking it up.

[James Jones]

I’d believe the Euro over the NAM any day.

Yeah, thank god it's the NAM. I recall it doing well last winter though.

[TT-SEA]

SEA radar is back up... moisture is about gone here.

 

[Geos]

Total snow on Christmas Eve day... looks like most of the area is getting light rain with the main front.  

 

 

That map doesn't look right. Wouldn't makes sense for there to be more snow in Aberdeen than here. Or snow accumulation over the water. That's goofy. 

[TT-SEA]

Bellingham is the place to be today if you don't like the soupy weather...

 

[Tenochtitlan]

yeah, it's beautiful up here today. It even snowed a tiny bit last night (just enough for a dusting on sidewalks, it's long gone now).

[bainbridgekid]

Total snow on Christmas Eve day... looks like most of the area is getting light rain with the main front.  

 

The next frame is much snowier:

 

[ShawniganLake]

Bellingham is the place to be today if you don't like the soupy weather...

 

Outflow kicking in. Abbotsford has NE winds gusting to 25mph

[Geos]

Its going south.   The ECMWF even trended a little farther south on the 12Z run.   It would have trended north at this point if it was going north.   But its still trending south.   

 

In my experience of watching the EURO for years, the northern edge of the precipitation shield is usually cut off too far south on the model. We're still talking about a storm 2.5 days away so things can change still.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Outflow has reached Abbotsford, the dewpoint has dropped to 17F with moderate NE winds.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Will the 18z trend south?

[Geos]

I think I just got a bunch of fog last night with some drizzle. That weak system wasn't forecast very well.

[Geos]

18z NAM was quite a bit farther north.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Will the 18z trend south?

Let's hope so!

[Geos]

Not bad. Would give Portland folks something too.

 

 

 

3km NAM low comes ashore near Long Beach it looks like.

 

Through 10pm Sunday.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z is even further north lol.

[FroYoBro]

The Euro is going north tonight for sure.