Front Ranger Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m still happy about the same thing that was evident 5-7 days ago. We are finally transitioning into a Niña pattern and probably have a nice, generally cool and wet six months ahead of us. In other words, endless +PNA. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Both the Gem and GFS ensembles showed some nice improvement with the trough centered around the 24th/25th. It's sitting at 51F here at the moment, I've got a good feeling about this upcoming pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 The WRF maps for Saturday and Sunday actually show the surface pattern in my snow melting nightmares. I have seen many situations like this destroy our snow cover with a roaring south wind for hours and sometimes days. It may change.. for the worse and better. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 It may change.. for the worse and better. I am not actually worried about ruining a snow cover... it just reminds of a scenario that has done that many times here. It looks like 3-4 days in a row of strong (but chilly) southerly winds. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 00z GFS looks fabulous. Possible snow/ice overrunning event next Wednesday and then snow down to sea level later in the run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Cooler 43F here. Hopefully something good happens before early February. Snow in the first week of February doesn’t really work for my schedule. Where are you going? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m still happy about the same thing that was evident 5-7 days ago. We are finally transitioning into a Niña pattern and probably have a nice, generally cool and wet six months ahead of us.Yep, and we just need that one undercutting low to make things really fun. That can't be ruled out in the Day 6-10 period. --6z GFS in 3 hours 34 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 JMA is chilly... 881D13B5-C881-4A1A-89ED-FA82F1F6C245.pngLooks cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 You know Phil says some respectable things but if he doesn't get his temper in check he will be the Imus of the meteorological world.What makes you think I have a short temper? Is it because I sometimes use mean words on a weather forum? That’s not much to go off. Just don’t twist my words around or throw backhanded compliments my way, and you won’t have to worry about me being a d**k. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Where are you going?Nowhere exciting. Just up to Parksville for the week. But it’s a pain to find someone to cover my snow removal contracts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Nowhere exciting. Just up to Parksville for the week. But it’s a pain to find someone to cover my snow removal contracts. Ahhhh. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Interesting talk of the PV breaking down at the end of the month, and making things fun for everyone into Feb.We’re overdue for one. It’s been 5 years now..second longest SSW drought on record. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Good night shift upcoming. My body is ready. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 00z ECMWF Day 5 nice improvementshttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Cooler 43F here. Hopefully something good happens before early February. Snow in the first week of February doesn’t really work for my schedule. Up to 52F here now, seems to be warming up again. The last week of January / first week of February seem to be the time for things to come together if we're going to get a blast out of this pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Ahhhh.Although, we are considering going south for a week later in February/March. I’ve got a ton of points on my credit card that I could use up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Day 6 decent, chilly trough. Upstream just no blocking. Not good enough, but I still like the improvements in the mid range. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 00z ECMWF Day 5 nice improvements Placement of the low on Sunday is more favorable than the GFS/WRF as well. There is some offshore flow ahead of the front late Saturday night and there is a little lowland snow up here on Sunday morning. Offshore flow can do much more with marginal set ups. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Although, we are considering going south for a week later in February/March. I’ve got a ton of points on my credit card that I could use up How far south? You must be talking about the US... you are about as far south as you can go in Canada. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Day 7 Pattern upstream goes to poo quicklyhttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011600/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Placement of the low on Sunday is more favorable than the GFS/WRF as well. There is some offshore flow ahead of the front late Saturday night and there is a little lowland snow up here on Sunday morning. Offshore flow can do much more with marginal set ups. Similar to the GFS for my area that time period. 1-2” would be fun to see given this winter. How does that total period look? Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 How far south? You must be talking about the US... you are about as far south as you can go in Canada. Like way south. California, Mexico or the Caribbean. We are going to have to look into the Zika virus though, travelling with our little one. I’m guessing it was being overblown by the media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Like way south. California, Mexico or the Caribbean. We are going to have to look into the Zika virus though, travelling with our little one. I’m guessing it was being overblown by the media. Zika is only a concern for pregnant women right? We avoid Mexico... too many safety concerns down there. Hawaii has perfect weather all year around and is in the US... much easier. Unless of course there are missile warnings. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Similar to the GFS for my area that time period. 1-2” would be fun to see given this winter. How does that total period look? Total snow through day 8... in King County this all occurs early Sunday morning. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Total snow through day 8... in King County this all occurs early Sunday morning. At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period. Nothing for Bryant though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period. Nothing for Bryant though Yeah... things are definitely looking a little better for the weekend system and I trust the detailed ECMWF maps by far over the WRF. There might be some lowland snow as the flow goes offshore in between systems. The WRF shows no break in the southerly flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Zika is only a concern for pregnant women right? We avoid Mexico... too many safety concerns down there. Hawaii has perfect weather all year around and is in the US... much easier. Unless of course there are missile warnings. I’m just not sure about Zika. Will have to get a doctors opinion. We’d love to go back to Punta Cana or Cuba too. Cuba is a much shorter flight. Hawaii is an option but seems super expensive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Yeah... things are definitely looking a little better for the weekend system and I trust the detailed ECMWF maps by far over the WRF. There might be some lowland snow as the flow goes offshore in between systems. The WRF shows no break in the southerly flow.Hope the details improve in our favor over the next few runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m just not sure about Zika. Will have to get a doctors opinion. We’d love to go back to Punta Cana or Cuba too. Cuba is a much shorter flight. Hawaii is an option but seems super expensive. Both those places were grazed by Irma right? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 ECMWF still looks sort of blocky in the 9-10 day period... persistent zonal flow is hard to come by this winter. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Both those places were grazed by Irma right?Never thought of that, but probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Wow Euro comes close but not quite. This location sucks. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 At least that is something. This is the third run now showing snow during that time period. Nothing for Bryant thoughLol, can you draw a dot where I am on that map? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just let the dog out... some light rain has fallen and it feels more humid and the air has that distinct smell of rain in the warm season. Smells like fresh cut grass even though there is no fresh cut grass. Hard to describe... but everyone knows that smell and it does not happen too often here in the winter. It was immediately noticeable upon opening the door. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Just let the dog out... some light rain has fallen and it feels more humid and the air has that distinct smell of rain in the warm season. Smells like fresh cut grass even though there is no fresh cut grass. Hard to describe... but everyone knows that smell and it does not happen too often here in the winter. It was immediately noticeable upon opening the door.I just inhaled some grass too 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 I just inhaled some grass tooClever. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 16, 2018 Report Share Posted January 16, 2018 Lol.. because climo wins 95% of the time. Kinda a safe bet. The pattern is pretty consistent with every year around here.I’m well aware of the weather patterns here and climo. It’s called being near an ocean. Only place exempt from that rule is AK. Oceananic influences don’t always apply to weather there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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