January Weather In the PNW

[Timmy]

It's just one bad run and models change every run, unless it's Dec 2008 where it held steady

It’s only out to day 7 and it’s not worse than any gfs runs since yesterday

[Timmy]

The operational GFS and the ensembles have been lousy and haven't shown much of any action. GEM and EC hint at some cooling off but then it gets taken away when it gets inside of 10 days.

The cmc and euro are both decent at day 7 actually

[MossMan]

Brennan mentioned you wanting to move up north huh? He was showing me a few places on the map that you were interested in.

Yeah we are actively looking, however my wife shot down the idea of moving any further north than Mount Vernon, so we are looking at the area between exits 212 and 218 east of I-5. I refuse to live in Mt Vernon due to the utter lack of snow there. However around the Starbird area (Snohomish/Skagit line) usually does very well in the snow department east of I-5 so that is our target area. Very nice area, and spreadout properties. If I truly had my way though...Sumas area would be awesome! And if jobs weren’t an issue, Eastern slopes of the cascades!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The cmc and euro are both decent at day 7 actually

 

It is interesting how differently they are handling the Tuesday trough than the GFS. If anything the GFS is sticking stronger to its guns with that feature...

[Jesse]

The operational GFS and the ensembles have been lousy and haven't shown much of any action. GEM and EC hint at some cooling off but then it gets taken away when it gets inside of 10 days.

This is not a factual assessment. You’ve really got to stop shooting from the hip like this.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The cmc and euro are both decent at day 7 actually

 

For places 1000'+ yes.  Hopefully the trend will improve. Hell, there hasn't even been much of anything for you so far either.

[Timmy]

For places 1000'+ yes. Hopefully the trend will improve. Hell, there hasn't even been much of anything for you so far either.

I’m strictly talking about the upper level pattern/big picture. I’m not sure you are looking at the models correctly or at all.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12" of new snow the past 24 hours at Santiam Pass Hoodoo ski resort. Up to a 51" base which is nothing amazing even for Hoodoo, but about 2X as much as a week ago.

[TT-SEA]

Precip is done here now... for the time being at least.    Actually looks like some sun is breaking through as well.  

 

Got down to 38 when the precip was heaviest for about 30 minutes.   Back up to 40 now with a fairly strong SW wind.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is not a factual assessment. You’ve really got to stop shooting from the hip like this.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

I don't see much.  The mean drops 850s to -3.  That's not going to get it done.

[Timmy]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

I don't see much. The mean drops 850s to -3. That's not going to get it done.

plenty of potential, the nature of the pattern is going to have a lot of spread based on where the ridge sets up. This chart doesn’t validate your false cmc/euro statement either

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is slighly further west at hour 204, but not significantly as of yet. 

 

By hour 216 there is a more noticeable westward trend versus the 12z, as the arctic air is pushing due south.

[Jesse]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

I don't see much. The mean drops 850s to -3. That's not going to get it done.

Are you familiar with how to read these charts?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

plenty of potential, the nature of the pattern is going to have a lot of spread based on where the ridge sets up. This chart doesn’t validate your false cmc/euro statement either

 

Hasn't it been a trend this winter that the CMC and EC show the goodies about 9-10 days out and then take it away or water it way down once it gets much closer than that? I guess I am remembering wrong then.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Are you familiar with how to read these charts?

 

The ensemble mean is what I tend to favor.  I see several members have 850s go cold and several warm about day 10-11, so the mean is what I default to unless the members come into more lockstep.

[Deweydog]

Hasn't it been a trend this winter that the CMC and EC show the goodies about 9-10 days out and then take it away or water it way down once it gets much closer than that? I guess I am remembering wrong then.

Most anomaly centers are overblown in the long range on any model. None of this new.

 

There is potential in the 8-14 day range. That's all.

[Geos]

Yeah we are actively looking, however my wife shot down the idea of moving any further north than Mount Vernon, so we are looking at the area between exits 212 and 218 east of I-5. I refuse to live in Mt Vernon due to the utter lack of snow there. However around the Starbird area (Snohomish/Skagit line) usually does very well in the snow department east of I-5 so that is our target area. Very nice area, and spreadout properties. If I truly had my way though...Sumas area would be awesome! And if jobs weren’t an issue, Eastern slopes of the cascades!

 

So your offer on that one place by Big Lake didn't work?

[Guest El nina]

Hasn't it been a trend this winter that the CMC and EC show the goodies about 9-10 days out and then take it away or water it way down once it gets much closer than that? I guess I am remembering wrong then.

You are not remembering wrong, unless I am too.

[MossMan]

So your offer on that one place by Big Lake didn't work?

My wife decided that a 20min drive to get to I-5 was just a little too far so we elected to not put an offer in.

[Deweydog]

Very similar to the days leading up to the Christmas snowstorm...

[Timmy]

18z is so close in the LR

[Jesse]

Very similar to the days leading up to the Christmas snowstorm...

In that we are tracking both on weather models? Yes!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z is so close in the LR

 

I'd love it if the GFS came around to the EC and CMC solutions, but it's just no fun to get one's hopes up.  I think the ensembles will look about the same.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is trying so hard...

 

[Deweydog]

In that we are tracking both on weather models? Yes!

I like snow. I missed the one on Christmas Eve. I'd take a repeat, albeit with higher son angeles.

[Jesse]

18z is trying so hard...

 

 

....to undercut the block.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is gonna get undercut in the long range though I think.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

18z is gonna get undercut in the long range though I think.

 

Sure looking that way.  Bottles up the cold in the great white north.

[Jesse]

I like snow.

I luvssnow. <_>

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the 18z wasn't a step back in the big picture. Pretty much every other model is much better with the trough next week. Including the 18z ICON

 

 

Here is the 18z GFS...

[Deweydog]

PDX is gonna have to do it with a midnight low.

[Bryant]

Yeah we are actively looking, however my wife shot down the idea of moving any further north than Mount Vernon, so we are looking at the area between exits 212 and 218 east of I-5. I refuse to live in Mt Vernon due to the utter lack of snow there. However around the Starbird area (Snohomish/Skagit line) usually does very well in the snow department east of I-5 so that is our target area. Very nice area, and spreadout properties. If I truly had my way though...Sumas area would be awesome! And if jobs weren’t an issue, Eastern slopes of the cascades!

Agree with the Snohomish/Skagit area. It's unfortunate she doesn't want to go any further north that Mt. Vernon... there are some locations in Whatcom County, and north of here of course, that do pretty well. North lake Samish/Top of Yew St location is one of the best performers for how far south it is, then you have Sumas, Lynden, etc which do well. Nice thing about sumas is you can find protected areas from the wind, where as Lynden and other far northern locations, you really can't.

[Geos]

My wife decided that a 20min drive to get to I-5 was just a little too far so we elected to not put an offer in.

 

How about the Lake McMurray area. 

That's a bit closer to I-5

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interested to see if there is any ensemble improvement.

[Deweydog]

Interested to see if there is any ensemble improvement.

Not bad.

[ShawniganLake]

Interested to see if there is any ensemble improvement.

Nope

[DareDuck]

I already have. I have been virtually hands-off Jim since last summer.

What just annoys me is the fact you’ll give crap for doing what your doing now. Posting 10 day surface maps and 15 day EPS maps that you’d give flack for other people for posting. Personally, I like all the maps so if you continued what you’ve been doing the last couple days then that’s fine. It just irks me when someone will post a 10 day surface temp map and you say “Well it’s a surface map 10 days out” then do it yourself. BTW I don’t always think you do it to be a Debbie downer necessarily.

 

Edit: just to clarify; I’m not objecting to your posts this week, just the flack you’ll give others for doing the same on other occasions.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nws is going to bust the hood canal area forecast friday night big time. No mention of snow friday night. Temps in mid thirties surface winds east to north east for a good part of the night. 3-6 inches look like a good bet.  That area is not east for the sw winds to push the cold air out and almost every time it will snow and wont change to rain until fropa. 

[seattleweatherguy]

Most of the time the nws seems to be on the conservative side.

[Jesse]

Interested to see if there is any ensemble improvement.

Basically a continued stalemate between kold and worm members just like this forum sometimes lol