January Weather In the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The GFS finally jumps onboard with a major Arctic Blast with snow! Onto the 00z King EURO!

[Guest El nina]

Massive potential at 240hrs.

It was 240 hours 48 hours ago...

[Brennan]

Yep! Now watching the start of the Dec. 1996 madness!

Looked warm in Portland, and cold in Bellingham!

19 degrees for Bryant, and 33 degrees for PuyallupJon!

Please send more of these shots!’ In fact, start a thread and lets get caught in December 1996 with tons of news footage pics!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think things usually work out like this....

 

[Deweydog]

Praise Jesus!

[Dave]

I can't take it any more. Goodbye.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will be interesting to see the ensembles and the EURO. But it is a shame that early week trough disappeared for next week...All the models were consistent in showing some potential with it for several days and then poof. Doesn't make one feel to great about hour 300 of the GFS.

[Deweydog]

Will be interesting to see the ensembles and the EURO. But it is a shame that early week trough disappeared for next week...All the models were consistent in showing some potential with it for several days and then poof. Doesn't make one feel to great about hour 300 of the GFS.

The long range GFS is far more rock solid considering it's dependent on the behavior of a meandering anomalous high latitude block.

[Phil]

Seems like the torching keeps getting pushed back on the weeklies. It would be nice to have at least one solidly cool winter month this year.

The second half of February will almost certainly be warm/ridgy, but the first half has more potential than any time since the winter of 2010/11, IMO.

 

Whether that potential is realized remains to be seen.

[Phil]

The GGEM is a piece of s**t. It was wrong before and it’s still wrong now.

[Deweydog]

PDX still hanging in there at 43.

[Phil]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The GGEM is a piece of s**t. It was wrong before and it’s still wrong now.

Yeah it's always behind the EURO and GFS in verification scores.

[Deweydog]

[BLI snowman]

PDX still hanging in there at 43.

 

Looks like they'll be able to keep their streak of no colder than average days alive!

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

Looks like they'll be able to keep their streak of no colder than average days alive!

Pretty sure 1996 made it until the snowstorm on the 27th when they posted a -1 or -2.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through day 9 the GEFS is trending east...

[snow_wizard]

Incredible GFS run tonight.  It would sure be fun to have all of the models be great at the same time!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible GFS run tonight.  It would sure be fun to have all of the models be great at the same time!

 

I like our chances next winter. Neutral seems to do the trick these days.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty sure 1996 made it until the snowstorm on the 27th when they posted a -1 or -2.

 

62 degrees on 2/7 incoming!

[Deweydog]

I like our chances next winter. Neutral seems to do the trick these days.

I say scrap this turd and start anew with unbridled optimism this October. A mediocre tweener event at this point only serves to reduce the level of comeuppance going into next winter.

[TT-SEA]

All the models toying with the idea of a major event... usually a sign that something is coming!  

[BLI snowman]

Through day 9 the GEFS is trending east...

 

Looking pretty dire at this point.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM far better than the GFS and more believable 500mb pattern evolution. Pattern at Day 10 is close to being great. There will be a ton of bitter air to our north. Let's see it's the 25th, pattern change with the ridge building offshore begins Monday night. I'd say that gives us 2 to 3 days of model runs to go that will make or break our Winter hopes.

 

--

00z ECMWF in 17 minutes

[MossMan]

KING EURO will save the night!

SCORE!

KIRK CAMERON!

[BLI snowman]

Ensembles like big warm ridge.

[snow_wizard]

I like our chances next winter. Neutral seems to do the trick these days.

 

What about this winter?  This event still has a good chance.  As of now on tonight's models we have...

 

1. Excellent GFS operational

2. so so GFS ensemble

3. Decent GEM operational

4. Fantastic GEM ensemble

[snow_wizard]

KING EURO will save the night!

SCORE!

KIRK CAMERON!

 

GEM ensemble is incredible.

[snow_wizard]

People should know the drill by now.  No one model or ensemble run is going to make or break this.

[snow_wizard]

00z GEM far better than the GFS and more believable 500mb pattern evolution. Pattern at Day 10 is close to being great. There will be a ton of bitter air to our north. Let's see it's the 25th, pattern change with the ridge building offshore begins Monday night. I'd say that gives us 2 to 3 days of model runs to go that will make or break our Winter hopes.

 

--

00z ECMWF in 17 minutes

 

Yup.  I'm just as optimistic as I was 24 hours ago.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Ensembles best yet. Here is Yakima. Mean temp down to almost -9c, more members -10c to -20c, and less 'warm' members. Very nice potential for a significant backdoor arctic blast.

[Gradient Keeper]

Seattle looks pretty good, still a fairly large spread and you'd want to see less 'warm' members on future runs.

 

--

6z GFS in 3 hours 26 minutes

[Timmy]

Seattle looks real good

chart(6).png

I’m guessing Portland doesn’t look good or else you would have posted it?

[Jesse]

I’m guessing Portland doesn’t look good or else you would have posted it?

 

It's possible the Canadian doesn't make an ensemble mean for Portland. Hard to imagine a scenario where Seattle looks that promising and Portland doesn't.

[GHweatherChris]

[Gradient Keeper]

I’m guessing Portland doesn’t look good or else you would have posted it?

On the new German Ensembles site when I type Portland about 15 of them pop up and I have no idea which one is Portland, OR. I can get Troudale's though.

[Deweydog]

42!

[Front Ranger]

What about this winter?  This event still has a good chance.  As of now on tonight's models we have...

 

1. Excellent GFS operational

2. so so GFS ensemble

3. Decent GEM operational

4. Fantastic GEM ensemble

GFS within believable range is nothing to rave about.

 

But given the large spread and model inconsistencies, certainly too soon for forks. 12z Euro was the best sign yet, hopefully 0z continues.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

Wow the GFS was a disaster.  Very bad sign.