January Weather In the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Pretty incredible how long it has been since we have seen a significant period of cold onshore flow. Seemed to happen all the time between 2008-12, then someone turned the spigot off.

 

April 2018!

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing to see all of the analogs from the 1950s on recent GFS runs.  I'm not going to be doing much commenting on here until things really come together though.  I'm just burned out on the forum for a while.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

That Arctic front sure pushed into the BC interior in a hurry. Some very cold air is close. Too bad it didn't make its way to the coast, would have made for a decent battle-zone event. As it stands it looks like the Eastern Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley are going to get slammed with snow again as that looks to be the battle zone this go around. The current YWL-YXX gradient is -13mb.

 

[snow_wizard]

That Arctic front sure pushed into the BC interior in a hurry. Some very cold air is close. Too bad it didn't make its way to the coast, would have made for a decent battle-zone event. As it stands it looks like the Eastern Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley are going to get slammed with snow again as that looks to be the battle zone this go around. The current YWL-YXX gradient is -13mb.

 

 

Yeah...SO close.

[ShawniganLake]

Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds.

[TT-SEA]

Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds.

 

About where it stops.   They are expecting rain tomorrow in Chilliwack. 

 

And its really not that cold when you look at the 850mb map for tomorrow (equally cold air over parts of BC and Texas)    It is the middle of January.   

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Phil gets to enjoy 65 on Friday before it crashes again!  

 

Might have low 60s here on Sunday as well...

 

[ShawniganLake]

About where it stops. They are expecting rain tomorrow in Chilliwack.

 

And its really not that cold when you look at the 850mb map for tomorrow (equally cold air over parts of BC and Texas) It is the middle of January.

 

 

 

I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow.

 

Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas.

[TT-SEA]

I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow.

 

Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas.

 

True.

[ShawniganLake]

True.

Currently -12F with a windchill of -22F near our cabin. That’s pretty chilly.

[Phil]

My list is easier to make by listing what states I’d live in. For me it probably would be OR, CA, WA, MT, CO, AK, maybe WY and northern AZ and ID.

I’m guessing you like mountains?

[Phil]

Phil gets to enjoy 65 on Friday before it crashes again!

 

Might have low 60s here on Sunday as well...

 

Omg, and a low of 61*F. Gonna feel great. We’ll probably sleep with our bedroom window open.

 

Low temps plunge back to around 15*F a few days later, though, so it’s mostly a troll job.

[ShawniganLake]

Special weather statements just posted for much of Vancouver Island. Up to 4” of snow for higher elevations and inland areas.

[BLI snowman]

I agree it likely stops somewhere near there but Chilliwack is under a Winter storm watch for snow and freezing rain tomorrow.

 

Your 850 temp map is an anomaly map. I would be willing to bet that the airmass in the BC interior is colder than the one in Texas.

 

Chilliwack will probably see a little snow for sure. Definitely a big snowfall anywhere to the east of there. Shaping up to be a decent winter for the Eastern Fraser River Valley.

[Gradient Keeper]

Outflow has reached Hope and Agassiz with strong NE winds.

As of 12 AM YWL-BLI now -13.1mb

[BLI snowman]

Omg, and a low of 61*F. Gonna feel great. We’ll probably sleep with our bedroom window open.

 

Low temps plunge back to around 15*F a few days later, though, so it’s mostly a troll job.

 

Could be and maybe should be your last real chill before the Pacific eats the rest of your winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 10 - Ridge did slide east nicely to 160 W the sweet spot. If it sets up there and amplifies that could be REAL good after the trough in the US kicks out. Too far out to do anything but speculate.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2018011100/240/500h_anom.na.png

[ShawniganLake]

Chilliwack will probably see a little snow for sure. Definitely a big snowfall anywhere to the east of there. Shaping up to be a decent winter for the Eastern Fraser River Valley.

Their watch was just upgraded to a warning. 8-12” of snow tomorrow.

 

Definitely been a great stretch out that way. Agassiz had over 2 feet of snow at the end of December.

[Gradient Keeper]

IR/Water Vapor update & 3hr Pressure Change

Today's low is now around 996mb located near 45 N, 138.4 W. The past hour or so it's showing better organization and 3hr Pressure Change shows it's undergoing decent cyclogenesis/deepening now. Hmmm....

 

IR 4km Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12

IR Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+12

IR 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir_enhanced+25

WV Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

WV 12hr Loop> https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+25

3hr Pressure Change chart> http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS mirroring the OP nearly identically. Positive anomaly/block is in great placement perhaps a bit further east would be better yet, kick that trough out over the US and then add amplification we'd be set.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2018011100/240/500h_anom.na.png

 

[Phil]

Could be and maybe should be your last real chill before the Pacific eats the rest of your winter.

Haha, whatever gets you through the night.

 

Fortunately for me, it snows here in Pacific airmasses all the time. I don’t live in a maritime climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Driving and cranking some old alice n chains and i am reminded of a cool experience my late wife had. The year was 1992 and she was working at the k2 ski plant on vasion island. She comes home one day and says hey i met some guy from a band today. I say oh ya? She says ya some scruffy guy sat next to me and started a conversion with me just small talk chit chat. She says ya he and the band are signing some snow boards today at work. At this point i am thinking some no name grunge band or something. Keep in mind my wife listened to garth brooks in 1992 and only rock when we were together and i was trying to blow here ears out. So i ask who was this person and band?? She looks at me and says his name was layne staley and the band is called alice and chains or something. My mouth dropped. She sat and talked to him for 10 minutes. I never forget what she said. He looked like a bum but was very soft spoken and polite. I love music amd it was a special moment for sure.

[Gradient Keeper]

Michael Ventrice ‏ 15 hours ago

 

"Interesting signature from the latest ECMWF Week 4 Clusters; Top 3 clusters show a similar pattern, though vary on the latitude of the ridge forecast to build over the eastern U.S. (from +NAO to -NAO)."

 

 

I'll take Cluster 4 please. 10% chance? Oki doki. Cluster 6 would be strong backdoor blast.

[Phil]

Michael Ventrice ‏ 15 hours ago

 

 

 

Interesting signature from the latest ECMWF Week 4 Clusters; Top 3 clusters show a similar pattern, though vary on the latitude of the ridge forecast to build over the eastern U.S. (from +NAO to -NAO)

 

 

I'll take Cluster 4 please. 10% chance? Oki doki. Cluster 6 would be strong backdoor blast.

Reality will probably be cluster 1, 2, or 5, except maybe moved up about one week. Then a bifurcation/Plains trough develops to open February when the MJO propagates back into the west-Pacific.

[ShawniganLake]

[Phil]

FWIW, the difference between those EPS week 4 clusters is likely explained by the speed at which the MJO propagates into the west-Pacific. Clusters 6, 7, 8, are probably the members with a shallower/faster wave, hence they transition the pattern faster than clusters 1, 2, 4, and 5, which might have the slower/deeper wave.

[BLI snowman]

Haha, whatever gets you through the night.

 

Fortunately for me, it snows here in Pacific airmasses all the time. I don’t live in a maritime climate.

 

Interesting...I guess Pacific airmasses do tend to be pretty good in Potomac Basin Snowbelt. Impressive monthly totals like 0.0" in DC in Pacific Jet dominated stretches like December 2001, January 2006, December 2006, February 2012, December 2015, and  February 2017 certainly attest to that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Reality will probably be cluster 1, 2, or 5, except maybe moved up about one week. Then a bifurcation/Plains trough develops to open February when the MJO propagates back into the west-Pacific.

That's ALWAYS our reality, but I do agree. We'll see.

 

F8720114-2759-4EBE-90CC-3C2AF679D014.png

No bueno. Block reorganizes a bit too far west. Hopefully that changes in the coming days.

[Phil]

Interesting...I guess Pacific airmasses do tend to be pretty good in Potomac Basin Snowbelt. Impressive monthly totals like 0.0" in DC in Pacific Jet dominated stretches like December 2001, January 2006, December 2006, February 2012, December 2015, and February 2017 certainly attest to that.

Lol, swing and a miss. The periods you mention were failures because of an overpowering northern jet that induced early phasing upstream from here. A strong Pacific jet is actually a good thing here during most winters.

 

The winters of 1982/83, 1999/00, 2004/05, 2005/06, and 2015/16, to name a few, were all memorable here thanks to a strong Pacific jet that left residual energy in the south-central US after rectracting.

[Phil]

Winters with weak Pacific jets tend to be mostly snowless and moisture starved here. This one is a perfect example of that.

 

Believe it or not, I actually had more snowfall (locally) by this time last year than I do now. Shocker, right?

[BLI snowman]

Lol, swing and a miss. The periods you mention were failures because of an overpowering northern jet that induced early phasing upstream from here. A strong Pacific jet is actually a good thing here during most winters.

 

The winters of 1982/83, 1999/00, 2004/05, 2005/06, and 2015/16 were all memorable here thanks to a strong Pacific jet that left residual energy in the south-central US after rectracting.

 

I think it's just kinda cute how much you occasionally strive to play up your borderline, very mild winter climate. DC is far enough south that it usually requires pretty needle-threading blocking to score any significant winter weather. El Nino years favor your region for that blocking so whatever cold air is present usually gets dumped around you.

 

I leave you with this

 

https://www.houzz.com/discussions/2089667/palms-popping-up-around-washington-dc

[Phil]

I think it's just kinda cute how much you occasionally strive to play up your borderline, very mild winter climate. DC is far enough south that it usually requires pretty needle-threading blocking to score any significant winter weather. El Nino years favor your region for that blocking so whatever cold air is present usually gets dumped around you.

 

I leave you with this

 

https://www.houzz.com/discussions/2089667/palms-popping-up-around-washington-dc

Yeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though.

 

What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes.

[FroYoBro]

Yeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though.

 

What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes.

 

Everyone is so sick of reading this post. This is a thread for the PNW. 

[MossMan]

Rain. A lot of it.

[Jesse]

Yeah, I’m well aware that our winters suck. They still kick the crap out of yours, though.

 

What is SEA’s coldest low this winter? Like 25*F? That’s literally 10*F warmer than our average temperature over the last two weeks. So forgive me for rolling my eyes.

Sounds like a more exciting eastern forum might be a good place for you then.

[Geos]

Radar is really lit up this morning.

 

 

At 42 right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought the 06z was encouraging, haven’t seen the ensembles yet.

[HighlandExperience]

[tomas]

     

[Jesse]