January Weather In the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

[MossMan]

661AF002-A8D2-4616-B841-6D236F53D21B.png C0495EA7-FF28-4B68-B14B-72C751C05713.png

Looks slightly encouraging.

[Geos]

661AF002-A8D2-4616-B841-6D236F53D21B.pngC0495EA7-FF28-4B68-B14B-72C751C05713.png

 

Encouraging. 

[Deweydog]

Blusteree!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS doesn’t look as good as it has been.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

661AF002-A8D2-4616-B841-6D236F53D21B.png C0495EA7-FF28-4B68-B14B-72C751C05713.png

Half a degree below normal isn't going to get the job done.

[TT-SEA]

With the snow at Snoqualmie Pass today, it has a current seasonal snowfall total of 176". Last year on this date, we had 174" and ended up pretty close to normal. pic.twitter.com/LuqQjcgcdQ— Scott Sistek (@ScottSKOMO) January 11, 2018

 

My son has been texting pics of the pass all day.

[Jesse]

Runaway warming at PDX!!

[ShawniganLake]

My son has been texting pics of the pass all day.

Post a couple.

[Phil]

The EPS and GEFS have both been too zonal with the pattern in the medium/long range. The recent trends are pretty striking.

[jakeinthevalley]

Runaway warming at PDX!!

Runaway towards 60F, perhaps?

[ShawniganLake]

Half a degree below normal isn't going to get the job done.

I thought the Aleutian ridge looked a little more amplified in the long range on the 12z. Lots of cold air to our north. Could be worse.

[TT-SEA]

Post a couple.

 

He is in school... he is texting me web cam images.   

[Phil]

The EPS and GEFS have both been too zonal with the pattern in the medium/long range. The recent trends are pretty striking.

Usually it’s the GEFS that’s too zonal, but even the EPS is having that issue too, it seems. Couldn’t get the gif from tropical tidbits to link properly, so tried imgur.

 

Again, you see this all the time with the GEFS. Much more infrequent with the EPS.

 

https://i.imgur.com/PhAv72m.gifv

[MossMan]

He is in school... he is texting me web cam images.

He should be skipping and taking advantage of the great snow!!

[Phil]

Goes to show how big Eurasian troughs can screw with model guidance. Wavetrains can be completely mishandled within 3-4 days thanks to all the terrain interactions there, and how that entire system influences the Indo-Pacific convection (and vice-versa). When you include the fact we happen to have an MJO wave over there..lol. This is going to be a rough period for the models.

[FroYoBro]

He is in school... he is texting me web cam images.   

Tell him to put his phone away. Thanks. 

[ShawniganLake]

33F and snowing here now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Tell him to put his phone away. Thanks.

He needs to learn the Dewey Decimal System

[Geos]

Warming up quickly here too. Up to 47 in Bothell with no rain atm. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It still hasn't snowed in Tahoe yet. This is like a repeat of 1976-1977 and 2014-2015

-150" seasonal snowfall anomalies is our new normal.

 

I did already have more than the '14-'15 season but seems like mid-winter wants to take a break. My first snow was as early as October if anyone was curious. 

[Geos]

EB 90 closed due to a jack knife.

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/passes/snoqualmie/default.aspx

 

That looks nasty.

 

[Deweydog]

He needs to learn the Dewey Decimal System

[Geos]

Stevens Pass really dumping.

 

[Phil]

Stevens Pass really dumping.

 

stevenspass_01112018.png

That looks awesome. I can hear the soft pitter-patter of the snowflakes in my head looking at those images.

[ShawniganLake]

33F and snowing here now.

Didn’t last long. Looks like a deformation band is lifting just to the north of here.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ECMWF EPS 15 day for Portland-Troutdale looks nice. Shows an average of 4 inches of snow through day 15. One ensemble member brings almost a foot.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011112/city/KTTD_2018011112_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12z ECMWF EPS 15 day for Portland-Troutdale looks nice. Shows an average of 4 inches of snow through day 15. One ensemble member brings almost a foot.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011112/city/KTTD_2018011112_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

The one for Cascade Locks goes absolutely crazy. Shows an ensemble mean of nearly 2 feet.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2018011112/city/KCZK_2018011112_forecast_EPS_precip_360.png

[MossMan]

Tim! Our sunny weekend is not looking quite as sunny...or dry anymore.

[Phil]

Putin is about to enter the Arctic blender.

 

What in incredible airmass that is. Widespread sub -40C 850mb temperatures.

 

[Jesse]

Runaway towards 60F, perhaps?

Not today. Might have to wait until the late-month blowtorch to hit that magic number. We will then go until the middle of April until we see it again.

[North_County]

Looks like some slushy accumulation around the border at Sumas.

Looks like it has started to stick a bit.

 

 

Still just (sometimes chunky) rain just down the road in Lynden.

[MossMan]

Putin is about to enter the Arctic blender.

 

What in incredible airmass that is. Widespread sub -40C 850mb temperatures.

 

They won’t appreciate it like we would.

[Phil]

They won’t appreciate it like we would.

It gets crazier..

 

Yeeeesh.

 

[Prairiedog]

Looks like Winthrop has about 10" new since this am.  http://www.methow.us/webcams/ 

They were just under a foot before daybreak.  Storm total for me is .74" rain 51f

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It gets crazier..

 

Yeeeesh.

 

****!

[Phil]

This is important...eventually, that gargantuan mass of Arctic air (and the high pressures/anticyclone associated with it) will spill into the NW-Pacific/East Asia. If you think the modeling is struggling now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

Indo-Pac MJO + expanded WPAC warm pool + humongo Arctic air dump into East Asia/NW-Pac..I already feel queasy..

[Geos]

Noticed a cold flow of air coming down the Skykomish Valley right now. Temps have dropped from Index on eastward. Looks like it's almost down to freezing in Skykomish now.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap?lat=47.735&lon=-122.232&zoom=13&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=0&rad=1&rad.num=1&rad.spd=25&rad.opa=81&rad.type=00Q&rad.type2=&rad.smo=1&rad.noc=1&rad.stm=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0

[ShawniganLake]

This is important...eventually, that gargantuan mass of Arctic air (and the high pressures/anticyclone associated with it) will spill into the NW-Pacific/East Asia. If you think the modeling is struggling now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

Indo-Pac MJO + expanded WPAC warm pool + humongo Arctic air dump into East Asia/NW-Pac..I already feel queasy..

I think cross polar flow will develop and dump that into the PNW. -40C crosses the border into whatcom county late January.

[Jesse]

This is important...eventually, that gargantuan mass of Arctic air (and the high pressures/anticyclone associated with it) will spill into the NW-Pacific/East Asia. If you think the modeling is struggling now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

 

Indo-Pac MJO + expanded WPAC warm pool + humongo Arctic air dump into East Asia/NW-Pac..I already feel queasy..

Alright guys this is important....I have no idea what will happen. But I hang around here mostly to feel superior that my climate is colder, and I’m banned from most eastern forums.