January Weather In the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Op gets closer to where we want to go, but not just yet. A massive reservoir of Siberian cold builds over Alaska, Yukon and down into BC after Day 10 with 850s near -50c. Massive block is just a bit west of 160 W and tilted too much. Overall troughiness is a bit colder, deeper, so there should be a ton of mountain snow. You can see at the end of the run in clown range/la-la land that the block is about to pivot and drop the motherlode of cold air over us. There might be some slight improvement on Ensembles.

 

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12z GEM in 4 hours 49 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The La Nina is really going nuts now. Nino 3.4 has dropped below -1.6 on the latest update with an insane trade wind burst going. Maybe this will trigger the round of global cooling we are due for following the spike caused by the super Nino a while back. A Nina of this strength means a cold spring is pretty much a done deal for us. I still say I will be astonished if we don't score a good blast before this winter is done.

That's good to hear!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z is so close to something good

[Geos]

NAM is also quite generous with snow amounts for higher elevations to the North and west of Victoria

 

CA38165C-A8BF-4927-A79D-1012723C19F6.png

 

Definitely your winter up there. Nice amounts along the border as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Another 100 miles south with this low and things would be different as far as snow is concerned. at this point near the border looks to have a decent shot for some snow. Over the next 2 weeks ton's of snow coming to the mountains and it looks like the deepest snow at my cabin since I've been going up there will happen soon. 8 inches tomorrow will push the depth over 2 feet and more to come the next week. GOT TO GET UP THERE.

[HighlandExperience]

Definitely your winter up there. Nice amounts along the border as well.

Shawnigan lake area always does well. Nothing unusual for that location.

[High Desert Mat!]

That 12z though. Hmmmm

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If we get anything regionally good it is going to be in February...

[Deweydog]

If we get anything regionally good it is going to be in February...

Late December/early January.

[BLI snowman]

12z was a step back into doodooland.

[ShawniganLake]

12z was a step back into doodooland.

Ensemble also digs the trough well to our west at day 10. Putting us in southerly flow again.

[Farmboy]

12z was a step back into doodooland.

We were told yesterday to ignore the day to day fluctuations of the GFS because it's mishandling the MJO.... So good times are on the way.....!

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It would appear that winter is over...If it ever truly began.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It would appear that winter is over...If it ever truly began.

It certainly hasn't here. Thicknesses still haven't dropped below 528 and I'm not sure they will.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It certainly hasn't here. Thicknesses still haven't dropped below 528 and I'm not sure they will.

 

Then I remember mid-Feb through March 2012 when it seemed like we never had thickness values above 528...Or last Dec/Jan for that matter. Its just been completely dead. I was just looking at my weather stats from last Dec-March and there were so many dynamic fun systems. Even the system that delivered the snowfall to Seattle last February was fun down here. I had a 72-hour rainfall of almost 5" and then 3.5" of wet snow. I hardly remember that event, but it would be the highlight of this winter. My only consolation is that about 1/3 of my snow last winter fell the last week of February/ first week of March and I had about 60" of snow in 2012 after Valentine's Day, so things could still turn around. 

[Deweydog]

Morning takeaways:

 

1. The models appeal to those with a fecal fetish.

 

2. Winter is over. That said, things could turn around during the second half of winter.

[weather girl]

The La Nina is really going nuts now.  Nino 3.4 has dropped below -1.6 on the latest update with an insane trade wind burst going.  Maybe this will trigger the round of global cooling we are due for following the spike caused by the super Nino a while back.  A Nina of this strength means a cold spring is pretty much a done deal for us.  I still say I will be astonished if we don't score a good blast before this winter is done.

 

 

Good info, Jim.  I hope we get some sort of a flip before the end of FEB.  I am so over winter by then. It sounds like our spring is going to suck.  Hard.  And summer will likely start sometime after JUL 5th.  

[Jesse]

Good info, Jim. I hope we get some sort of a flip before the end of FEB. I am so over winter by then. It sounds like our spring is going to suck. Hard. And summer will likely start sometime after JUL 5th.

I am unconvinced we will be that lucky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I am unconvinced we will be that lucky.[/quote

 

 

The way things are going maybe some upper 60s in late February this spring!

[HighlandExperience]

It certainly hasn't here. Thicknesses still haven't dropped below 528 and I'm not sure they will.

You live in a bad location.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You live in a bad location.

Monmouth is actually a really nice college town.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You live in a bad location.

 

I agree, but I still like to keep track of events that do happen here and their "regularity", and there have occasionally been some pretty good ones since I have. We are actually in a better location than those at this elevation in the east valley and also Eugene, who get warm-nosed more often and quickly in winter events. Once I have brain surgery and am seizure-free for a year or so, I'd love to move to Bend.

[HighlandExperience]

Monmouth is actually a really nice college town.

I’m thinking on terms of snow

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Monmouth is actually a really nice college town.

 

It really is.  There aren't enough students to make it feel crowded and the summers are beautiful as we are in the rain shadow of Mary's Peak as well as some of the pretty high mountains at the border of Polk and Lincoln Counties. I wish they would build a good radar on top of Laurel Mountain or Mary's Peak for the Central Willamette Valley. I would get one built if I had Kokh Brothers cash.

[DareDuck]

It really is. There aren't enough students to make it feel crowded and the summers are beautiful as we are in the rain shadow of Mary's Peak as well as some of the pretty high mountains at the border of Polk and Lincoln Counties. I wish they would build a good radar on top of Laurel Mountain or Mary's Peak for the Central Willamette Valley. I would get one built if I had Kokh Brothers cash.

Another radar for the Willamette Valley? How about locations that don’t have any coverage like the central OR coast or central OR itself?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’m thinking on terms of snow

 

For regular snow yes.  But again, even with snow, we stay cold longer than the south valley and we also feel the effects and get snow with events like the Christmas one if it were any more significant with the cold/outflow than it was, and a lot of those types of events give us the cold a bit faster than the south valley as well. But, like most of the valley, if the flow is cold, but onshore, it's pretty much always just a bit too warm in the lowest levels unless there is heavy enough precip, so we don't get nearly as much as places like you.  That's why I would love to move to Bend.  Hot, dry summers and usually pretty cold in the winter.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro going the wrong direction too. Jim jinxed us.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro going the wrong direction too. Jim jinxed us.

We never learn. I am still clinging to hope for February.

[Front Ranger]

Trough retrogression!!!

[jakeinthevalley]

It really is.  There aren't enough students to make it feel crowded and the summers are beautiful as we are in the rain shadow of Mary's Peak as well as some of the pretty high mountains at the border of Polk and Lincoln Counties. I wish they would build a good radar on top of Laurel Mountain or Mary's Peak for the Central Willamette Valley. I would get one built if I had Kokh Brothers cash.

Laurel Mountain actually used to have a radar base up there...except it wasn't Doppler.  I believe it was Dept of Defense.

[MossMan]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I don't remember a winter so boring up to this point.  Even 2002-03 had some AR events. This one has been a snoozer so far.  Like others, I anticipate we will have 50 degree highs in June and summer won't start til July 5 as per usual.

[Farmboy]

Nobody read what I posted on the last page.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It never started so how can winter be over?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't remember a winter so boring up to this point. Even 2002-03 had some AR events. This one has been a snoozer so far. Like others, I anticipate we will have 50 degree highs in June and summer won't start til July 5 as per usual.

Pretty sure the only snow up here that winter was in April.

[Phil]

Looks like we have another 3 weeks of favorable tropical forcing for -PNA. So there’s plenty of time..but obviously the window won’t last forever.

 

Top: GEFS. Bottom: EPS. Window for troughing/-PNA continues until the MJO reaches the west-Pacific. So again, we’ve got several weeks of potential ahead of us.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like we have another 3 weeks of favorable tropical forcing for -PNA. So there’s plenty of time..but obviously the window won’t last forever.

 

Top: GEFS. Bottom: EPS. Window for troughing/-PNA continues until the MJO reaches the west-Pacific. So again, we’ve got several weeks of potential ahead of us.

 

 

 

Well we know we can write off the next 7-10 days...So that certainly narrows the window. I feel like we have some minor potential in the January 20-25 range still. Then maybe again the first 10-15 days of February...

[Phil]

If we get anything regionally good it is going to be in February...

I think it depends on how deep/slow this MJO wave is going forward. A deeper wave = a slower wave and a deeper -PNA through the rest of January, but it also means a deeper/slower wave when it reaches the WPAC and probably another western ridge/eastern trough in February as a result.

 

A shallower wave probably precludes an exciting event this month/less -PNA in the near term, but it also implies a weaker WPAC event in February and a faster orbit through the unfavorable domains..so maybe a return to the favorable Indo-Pacific domain my mid/late February.

[Front Ranger]

Looking at the latest EPS, it's actually slightly better than previous runs. Certainly no worse. Pattern change is still a go.