1/21 - 1/23 Plains/Midwest Blizzard

[Money]

8+ for eastern WI? Guessing it occludes early?

 

What did it have for snow depth before the system

[St Paul Storm]

8+ for eastern WI? Guessing it occludes early?

What did it have for snow depth before the system

Looks like 2-3” beforehand.

[Jaycee]

Rochester looks good!

My parents live just outside of Rochester, they’ve got dumped on for years. It’s crazy.

[gosaints]

8+ for eastern WI? Guessing it occludes early?

 

What did it have for snow depth before the system

Yep fondy looks to be at about .6 QPF in snow on the EURO

[Jaycee]

Wow Marquette Michigan at 4 feet that run. Unreal! This storm is a monster.

[Money]

Yep fondy looks to be at about .6 QPF in snow on the EURO

Thanks.

 

Quite the battle brewing

 

Icon/Euro/Ukie vs GFS/GEM

[Craig-OmahaWX]

This is getting interesting!

[NEJeremy]

Wow Marquette Michigan at 4 feet that run. Unreal! This storm is a monster.

Just an FYI, but those maps I posted are total snowfall on the ground, so Marquette doesn't get 4 feet of new snow with this storm. Weather.US only does total snowfall on the ground and then new QPF for the winter precip maps.

[Hawkeye]

A secondary result from the latest euro track is the mild Sunday/Monday is gone for my area.  Instead of 40s to near 50, which we'd get from a low track to the nw, we would now be stuck in the upper 30s with light rain... the worst result.  It's never good to have the low track over/near you.

 

 

[NEJeremy]

Euro showing gusts to 45-50 mph as well.

[jaster220]

Blizzards to the left of me, blizzards to the right...here I am, stuck in the middle with you (Tom), lol.  Maybe if he would stop saying how great this pattern is, Ma Nature would let us get something big. Reverse psyc works at times..

[Money]

Euro ensembles are nearly identical to the OP at hr 72

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2018011912&fh=72

[Naddan85]

Looks like Hastings NWS is buying in to the SE trend by adding a few more counties to the east of the original WSW. Will be interesting to see if OAX follows suit!

[Nelson]

EPS continues to drift ever so slightly south. Obviously rooting for that for MBY so take that with a grain of salt. Still, an interesting data point.

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

2" of slop imby if Euro verifies.

[snowstorm83]

Yep, EPS snow has ticked south. There's no way that I know of to look at a county view, but it looks like OMA/LNK aren't far from the 6" line. Also basically the entire state is at least 2" except for Falls City.

[Money]

18z Nam is a good bit south of 12z through hr 36

[WBadgersW]

D**n Money, you're potentially in the mix now.

[Snowlover76]

Meh.

[Money]

Def gonna be south of 12z

 

The HP in Canada is also farther SW

[gabel23]

Looks like Hastings NWS is buying in to the SE trend by adding a few more counties to the east of the original WSW. Will be interesting to see if OAX follows suit!

I'm now included but only calling for 2-5". I'm hoping for another 30 mile shift to the southeast so we all can get into the heaviest. Hoping the EURO wins out on this one. 

[St Paul Storm]

I’m not seeing where it’s south yet. I’m at hour 51 and it’s a tick slower/west than 12z.

 

Weaker by 57 for sure

[Money]

I’m not seeing where it’s south yet. I’m at hour 51 and it’s a tick slower/west than 12z.

Check out what’s happening with the HP in Canada. It’s not gonna cut as far north this run

[Minny_Weather]

Hi-res NAM is way weaker it seems.

 

Jk, they're both weaker!

[Money]

The L is in nearly the same spot as 12z euro at hr 66

 

Southern Iowa

[St Paul Storm]

Looks like it’s slowing down for sure. Precip shield is west.

[NEJeremy]

the precip field on the NAM is displaced way west of the surface low too. looks pretty odd. crappy run for eastern Nebraska as shown

[Money]

Looks like it gets to about Dubuque IA and starts to occlude

 

Gonna cut straight east into Milwaukee area

[St Paul Storm]

Occlude, sit and spin away. Good run again.

[Money]

Occlude, sit and spin away. Good run again.

Big step towards the euro tho

[gosaints]

Big step towards the euro tho

More of a left to right snow shield... Still a great run for the MSP crowd.  0z tonight and 12z tomorrow should start to nail down a better idea.

[Minny_Weather]

Yeah I'm taking this run for a grain of salt like I said earlier. I'll go ahead and not really worry about 18Z GFS either. We have more important runs to worry about later.

[St Paul Storm]

Big step towards the euro tho

Still ends up tracking pretty close to you at the end and not terribly far from the 12z NAM.

[Money]

More of a left to right snow shield... Still a great run for the MSP crowd.  0z tonight and 12z tomorrow should start to nail down a better idea.

True

 

Hi res nam is even more colder/weaker/south than the regular nam.

[Money]

Still ends up tracking pretty close to you at the end and not terribly far from the 12z NAM.

100+ mile shift in one run is pretty big

 

12z had it over GB

[St Paul Storm]

18z NAM thru the end of the run.

[St Paul Storm]

100+ mile shift in one run is pretty big

12z had it over GB

The position of the low is one thing. How the precip fields line up is also important. In this case it had no impact here. It’s one run. Much to be decided.

[Minny_Weather]

Hi-res NAM showing 1.1" of ice accumulation here. Thankfully it's extremely cold biased because THAT would be a mess.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow lol much different then 12z. Took out our heavy band completely. More model mayhem ahead

[Tony]

18z NAM thru the end of the run.

Throwing a little snow back towards Chi-Town.