westMJim Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 After a cold low of +5° here it is now cloudy and 25° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looking forward to 40F and full sun tomorrow, with a stiff wind out of the SW. I’m ready to melt the dirty snow down and lay a nice fresh base. The Twin Cities is currently ranked #1 in the country for reported cases of the flu. I don’t have the flu but I’ve had a nasty respiratory virus for almost 2 weeks. I need to feel the sun and breathe in some fresh air.I am not sure if I had the (flu/bronchitis or what ever one wants to call it) for over a week now. I feel better at times but if I go outside like I did yesterday to shovel out the drive after the plow went by then I spent the rest of the day coughing and just not feeling good. Today I will stay in the house and see if that helps. But I like you will be glad when the thing is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Some interesting stuff on the 12z runs for next week. Multiple items of interest. The areas that got buried in snow last week might have some flooding issues to deal with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 With colder air to the west and northwest and warmer air to the east, Nebraska and the Central Plains should be in the battle zone. I think we could see any types of weather and precipitation with wild swings in temps. I know Tom has mentioned and I see that Joe Bastardi also has shown how wild they think the end of February and March will be. In this area, March tends to be the month where we can get our biggest snowstorms/blizzards then a few days later it can be 60. Let's hope it pans out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 After a cold low of +5° here it is now cloudy and 25° Hit 2º in Marshall Some interesting stuff on the 12z runs for next week. Multiple items of interest. The areas that got buried in snow last week might have some flooding issues to deal with. Yay! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12Z GFS is showing our next big storm opportunity as being an ice storm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12Z GFS is showing our next big storm opportunity as being an ice storm.Seen that before this time of the year. Heavy snow west and part of central NE, to freezing rain parts of central and eastern NE, to plain rain in far southeast Nebraska. Those are the classic storms I remember from the past. Where the rain/snow/freezing rain line can always be tricky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 2m temps in the low to mid teens here while upper 50s approaching N IL. That’s quite the battle zone. PWATS by you well over 1”. Yikes.Wow. Wild weather in our future it looks like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Don't mind taking my chances with this look. Could be rain but could be big snow... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_12z/test8.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Also good consistency between Euro and GFS for the 2/21ish timeframe. Let's see how long that holds up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 just a note on the cold/flu/respiratory stuff. The bug here lasts for just about 5 weeks. Been a ton of it around here and some nurse friends say it's crazy how long it hangs on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 just a note on the cold/flu/respiratory stuff. The bug here lasts for just about 5 weeks. Been a ton of it around here and some nurse friends say it's crazy how long it hangs on.I teach in a high school. It was really bad here 2 weeks ago. Sounds like it has hit our middle school. Teacher at that building said around 25% of the kids were sick today or went home sick. Seems like it is either influenza or the stomach flu. I coach middle school basketball. We played a team last week that out of their 28 players, 16 missed the game due to the flu. Been quite a year for sickness, and not in a good way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 just a note on the cold/flu/respiratory stuff. The bug here lasts for just about 5 weeks. Been a ton of it around here and some nurse friends say it's crazy how long it hangs on.I've had the stuff 2x, both times lasting multiple weeks. I never had it really bad, it just lingered and lingered and lingered for 3-4 weeks. Mainly a hard cough. My wife caught it and was put on a steroid, inhaler, and an antibiotic, and was told she was close to walking pneumonia with some fluid in her lungs. Not fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 What a monster 18Z GFS shows that storm next week being. Of course we get the slot. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I picked up a cold as well over two weeks ago. It peaked in a few days and got better, but the last bits of symptoms have lingered far longer than I had hoped. It is finally about gone. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 A lonely starblinks her goodbye'sher light goes outand she slowly dies I feel revived 2day! It was a beautiful day in the Black Hills and I had to take a drive to Deadwood on business; and the trip was pleasant and the business was accomplished. Though I often believe that at 3465' I am in the Black Hills "Screw Zone" for snow; my trip today confirmed that this may not be entirely true. I left my house with about 4" on the ground...as I headed along RT 44...there were many, many thousands of acres I passed with either bare ground or just a coating in shaded areas. Same as I drove up US 385...for 5 miles north of the intersection between RT 385 & RT 44...very little snow on the ground...and much of this area is above 4800'...some over a mile up. Once I got about 9 miles north of the aforementioned intersection; the snow depth very quickly increased, and in the last 16 miles down to Deadwood; it looked like deep winter...with at least 10 inches or more of snow on the ground. It was very inspiring to see that my spot is not the worst in the area for snow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Now part of this can be attributed to that warm front I mentioned from 5 days afore (last Thursday)...which was bringing temps near 50 F (with rain) just 10 miles to my west while it never got above 17 F here...and that probably played a role in a snow melt in the cited areas. One of the few wintery "benefits" of living on the leeward (east) side of the mountains...as the Pacific Air has a very hard time getting in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Terrible snow years in Salt Lake City, Denver, Flagstaff (like 20% of normal! in Flagstaff), Reno and Boise...though the last two are bad snow towns anyway. Very good winter in Montana; however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 I feel revived 2day! It was a beautiful day in the Black Hills and I had to take a drive to Deadwood on business; and the trip was pleasant and the business was accomplished. Though I often believe that at 3465' I am in the Black Hills "Screw Zone" for snow; my trip today confirmed that this may not be entirely true. I left my house with about 4" on the ground...as I headed along RT 44...there were many, many thousands of acres I passed with either bare ground or just a coating in shaded areas. Same as I drove up US 385...for 5 miles north of the intersection between RT 385 & RT 44...very little snow on the ground...and much of this area is above 4800'...some over a mile up. Once I got about 9 miles north of the aforementioned intersection; the snow depth very quickly increased, and in the last 16 miles down to Deadwood; it looked like deep winter...with at least 10 inches or more of snow on the ground. It was very inspiring to see that my spot is not the worst in the area for snow. The back-loaded wintry pattern in your neck of the woods should continue for the foreseeable future. I certainly hope that you can at least recover some of the deficits over the next 2 months and reach normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 The back-loaded wintry pattern in your neck of the woods should continue for the foreseeable future. I certainly hope that you can at least recover some of the deficits over the next 2 months and reach normal. December and January are always bad snow months here; it gets better in February, much better in March...and is still pretty good in April. May is the last month that usually sees an accumulating snowfall; though on June 3, 1998...even the Rapid City saw a 10 inch snowstorm! There was no snow here in October; and very little in November (about an inch). Between those two months; I should have seen 9 or 10 inches of snow; if things were running on average. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 After 2 1/2 months of non-winter here; I finally see a definitive pattern change setting in for the Black Hills; especially after Day 6. A careful examination of the all-important 500 mb chart indicates that a significant trough should begin to become established east of the Mountains. Finally, these penny-ante surface features will have some support aloft. Then the pattern becomes even more active; and I believe that it should lock in right through the end of February. Two days ago; I had a sense that the upper air pattern was trending favorably; and the 0z GFS is showing the possibility of a very major storm towards sunset on Sunday. A very large trough at higher levels...ensuring a SW flow of moisture...in conjunction with a surface reflection east of the Rockies...could produce a very significant storm by Day 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 With only 2 weeks until met Spring, daylight is emerging earlier each day and hints of spring from nature are certainly becoming evident but will the weather cooperate? We have quite a wild week of weather next week and I'm starting to believe that MSP and parts of WI are in line for a decent chance of a winter storm. Overnight runs of the GFS and Euro suggest the storm system to track through the lower lakes which is favorable track to dump snow NW of the system. Last night's 00z Euro has a nasty temp gradient draped across the Plains/MW on Presidents Day. I might as well start a thread for this system later today if trends hold. 00z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021400/180/snku_acc.us_mw.png 06z GFS... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021406/174/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 I'd rather see the storm next week disappear than get the freezing rain/dry slot combo that GFS is showing for us. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 It is now time to take a look at the total snow fall so far this winter season. South West Michigan Muskegon 90.6”Grand Rapids 66.5” Central Michigan Lansing 44.9” East Michigan Detroit 52.5”Flint 65.1”Saginaw 31.1” Norther Lower Michigan Alpena 37.1”Houghton Lake 34.7”Gaylord 92.0”Traverse City 83.3”Petoskey 98.5” Upper Michigan Sault Ste Marie 84.8”Marquette 116.2”Herman 131.5” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabitha Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 It is now time to take a look at the total snow fall so far this winter season. Saginaw 31.1” Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires. Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 12z GFS not backing down on a MSP special on Presidents Day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out.Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 I'd rather see the storm next week disappear than get the freezing rain/dry slot combo that GFS is showing for us.i don't. I want the Rockies to cash in so I can go skiing in April Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 12z GFS going big again it appears. Still a ways to go but the signal is definitely there. 12z ICON started to show something good too but then fizzled out.Looks like the Canadian agrees as well... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Yup, I think your in a great spot. That ridge to the east is a monster and this pattern screams a W GL’s cutter.Looks like the Canadian agrees as well...The placement of the monster ridge is nearly perfect. Still 120 hours to go, I don’t think this thing goes south but I worry about a hard Dakotas cutter. The high to the north might prevent that though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 You can have it Im ready for 50’s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 You can have it Im ready for 50’s50's don't do you any good for a day or two in Feb...just messes up the ice on the lakes for outdoors man. Give me 50's mid/end of March when the vegetation comes alive. Meantime, I think this year Bowling Ball season is going to amp up during the closing days of Feb and esp March. Wild pattern ahead as a back loaded winter is def looking like it has some legs to run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Still not sure it’ll happen here, but I’ll take it. 50s are for March and April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Still not sure it’ll happen here, but I’ll take it. 50s are for March and April.Would this put you AN snowfall for the season??? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021412/138/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 Would this put you AN snowfall for the season??? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021412/138/snku_acc.us_mw.pngThis verbatim would put me about 12” above normal for the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 I think Nebraskans can sit this one out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 14, 2018 Report Share Posted February 14, 2018 The temperature is in the low to mid 40s here in the city, with nearly full sun. There had been talk of clouds and being held in the upper 30s, but nope. Without snow cover, we'd probably be 60 degrees today. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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