February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Heavy snow shower! I’m hoping to score again tomorrow night...time will tell!

[Jesse]

Far from over though. Really no end in sight to the cold pattern and snow opportunities.

Oh absolutely. I consider this phase of the cold spell over today though, with PDX rising above 40 for the first time in a week. Although it looks like a generally cold pattern is here to stay.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Far from over though.   Really no end in sight to the cold pattern and snow opportunities.

 

850s don't drop below -7 on the GFS ensembles for PDX.  Pretty sure at least a handful of us have had our goodies for the year.

[DareDuck]

Moderate snowfall throughout a lot of the morning here. Looks like about 4" on top of the 2" left from the previous snow. Nice little snowpack developing which is really nice to see. Blizzard conditions up on Bachelor have just the beginner lifts running.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Things have warmed up here, currently up to 42F, the first time it's gone over 40F since last Saturday. Not expecting much more over the next week for this area, temperatures are forecast to be too warm when the low is in a good spot and cold onshore flow usually shadows Victoria.

[Jesse]

850s don't drop below -7 on the GFS ensembles for PDX.  Pretty sure at least a handful of us have had our goodies for the year.

 

-7c or even warmer can still do the trick for the lowlands in early March as long as surface gradients cooperate. Lots of examples of that in March 2012.

 

The pattern going forward could still have some surprises, even down in the valley.

[Winterdog]

Added about an inch overnight which covered over the waterlogged green area nicely. 35F and drppage in progress.

[ShawniganLake]

Things have warmed up here, currently up to 42F, the first time it's gone over 40F since last Saturday. Not expecting much more over the next week for this area, temperatures are forecast to be too warm when the low is in a good spot and cold onshore flow usually shadows Victoria.

Well if that’s it for winter, I’d probably give it a C maybe a C-

[Canadian guy]

Well if that’s it for winter, I’d probably give it a C maybe a C-

What are your thoughts on later this week?

[MossMan]

November C

December A-

January F-

February A

March A+++...hopefully!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up another few inches over night. Up to 36 and drippy now, though the showers are still snow

[ShawniganLake]

What are your thoughts on later this week?

not sure. The euro shows a deep low crashing into the north coast mid week. That rarely leads to anything exciting down here. We could get lucky if we tracked a low just to our south later in the week. It’s at least a possibility at this point.

[MossMan]

not sure. The euro shows a deep low crashing into the north coast mid week. That rarely leads to anything exciting down here. We could get lucky if we tracked a low just to our south later in the week. It’s at least a possibility at this point.

That doesn’t sound good for us down here either. Guess we wait and see.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tonight could be interesting here. Meso models show a few tenths of rain but snow levels of less than 1500ft can deliver here.

[ShawniganLake]

That doesn’t sound good for us down here either. Guess we wait and see.

Euro is a bit of an outlier with the midweek storm way up north. But it is the euro.

[MossMan]

Still off and on snow showers but it’s a slushy nightmare at 34 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

not sure. The euro shows a deep low crashing into the north coast mid week. That rarely leads to anything exciting down here. We could get lucky if we tracked a low just to our south later in the week. It’s at least a possibility at this point.

late next week looks very dynamic. Some models show another low looping back south from Vancouver island drawing more cold air down.

[MossMan]

late next week looks very dynamic. Some models show another low looping back south from Vancouver island drawing more cold air down.

I sure hope we can score one more biggie!

[MossMan]

At the lake house, sun is coming out and a rowing crew is out!

[snow_wizard]

At this point it appears the cold snap will end by March 5.  We still have a few more snow chances, but the 12z runs weren't great with the possible event late next week.  This was certainly one of the great late February cold snaps especially when you look at the duration, but the Central Puget Sound still underperformed for snowfall.  There is absolutely no question the Seattle area is way overdue to score big during a big cold wave.  Thankfully we have had some decent snows outside of major cold waves and smaller snows within the big cold waves to partially make up for that.

 

As for cold waves....there is no question that beginning with the January 2007 cold snap we have managed to bring major cold waves in here with relative ease aside form the dreadful March 2014 through 2016 period.  During the Jan 2007 through Jan 2012 period the Seattle area was able to perform rather well for snowfall with many of the cold snaps.  Since then, however, we have had quite a number of big cold snaps that have delivered little snowfall.

 

1. Dec 2013 - major cold wave, little snow

2. Feb 2014 - major cold wave, little snow

3. 2016-17 - numerous moderate cold waves with little snow (the February snow was with fairly pedestrian cold).

4. Feb 2018 - significant cold wave, with only one fairly good snow for most places. 

 

Thankfully we were again saved this winter by a decent snow associated with a pedestrian cold shot on Christmas.  No matter how you slice it Seattle is due for a major snowstorm entering a cold wave, and most certainly due for a huge overrunning snowstorm at the end of a cold snap.  I can't think of any periods on record where so many big cold waves haven't had major snows associated with them.

 

This all having been said it's pretty dam encouraging we have had two consecutive winters with prolonged / significant cold waves.  Next winter is probably going to be the winter before solar min so our chances are good of cold coming around again next winter.  The odds are highly in favor of Seattle ending it's snow problems at that time.

[HighlandExperience]

Good thoughts snowwiz. One of the more disappointing aspects of this cold wave was the lack of big snow. Especially here in Puget Sound. It would have been nice to have a 6+ inch event.

 

Of course there is still a chance something can happen.

[MossMan]

At this point it appears the cold snap will end by March 5. We still have a few more snow chances, but the 12z runs weren't great with the possible event late next week. This was certainly one of the great late February cold snaps especially when you look at the duration, but the Central Puget Sound still underperformed for snowfall. There is absolutely no question the Seattle area is way overdue to score big during a big cold wave. Thankfully we have had some decent snows outside of major cold waves and smaller snows within the big cold waves to partially make up for that.

 

As for cold waves....there is no question that beginning with the January 2007 cold snap we have managed to bring major cold waves in here with relative ease aside form the dreadful March 2014 through 2016 period. During the Jan 2007 through Jan 2012 period the Seattle area was able to perform rather well for snowfall with many of the cold snaps. Since then, however, we have had quite a number of big cold snaps that have delivered little snowfall.

 

1. Dec 2013 - major cold wave, little snow

2. Feb 2014 - major cold wave, little snow

3. 2016-17 - numerous moderate cold waves with little snow (the February snow was with fairly pedestrian cold).

4. Feb 2018 - significant cold wave, with only one fairly good snow for most places.

 

Thankfully we were again saved this winter by a decent snow associated with a pedestrian cold shot. No matter how you slice it Seattle is due for a major snowstorm entering a cold wave, and most certainly due for a huge overrunning snowstorm at the end of a cold snap. I can't think of any periods on record where so many big cold waves haven't had major snows associated with them.

 

This all having been said it's pretty dam encouraging we have had two consecutive winters with prolonged / significant cold waves. Next winter is probably going to be the winter before solar min so our chances are good of cold coming around again next winter. The odds are highly in favor of Seattle ending it's snow problems at that time.

I’m really hoping the models turn around and become more favorable this week...anyway any chance we will get back into the 20’s at all at night or are we looking pretty warm now?

[MossMan]

How much snow did you get Arctic Front?

[ShawniganLake]

Snowfall summary from Environment Canada. It’s in Cm’s but it shows a 6-13” storm hit the greater Vancouver area yesterday. Shawnigan Lake got 1”.

 

1. Summary of snowfall in cm:

 

North Vancouver: 25 - 33

Port Moody: 32

Port Coquitlam: 29

Burnaby: 18 - 30

Coquitlam: 20 - 28

Chilliwack: 26

Langley: 26

Maple Ridge: 20 - 26

Surrey: 16 - 25

Abbotsford Airport: 25

Squamish Airport: 24

Pitt Meadows: 19 - 23

Abbotsford: 20

Vancouver: 16 - 20

Delta: 15 - 20

Vancouver Airport: 15

West Vancouver: 15

[snow_wizard]

I’m really hoping the models turn around and become more favorable this week...anyway any chance we will get back into the 20’s at all at night or are we looking pretty warm now?

 

We have another legit cold shot coming in late tomorrow through early Tuesday.  One more solidly cold night looks pretty doable.

 

One more thought about the Christmas snow.  It's kind of ironic the Central Puget Sound was able to push the absolute limits of what was possible given the situation while in the same winter we couldn't score big in an almost certain snow situation.  We threaded the needle so perfectly with that Christmas snow it's nearly a miracle how good it turned out.  That event had added points for being on Christmas and lasting for a few days as well.

 

Also...if I was a betting man I would put some money on snow in March at some point.  March actually has nearly the same average snowfall as February and I think we will see a lot more of the GOA ridge this spring.

[TT-SEA]

Live view from and our new garage under construction per our security camera...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just sitting here thinking of past cold waves and back in the day it almost was a guarantee we went into and out of arctic air with a major event. I even remember Harry Wappler saying once, it's pretty hard to come out of arctic air without a over running event.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well if that’s it for winter, I’d probably give it a C maybe a C-

 

The snow this past Wednesday afternoon helped here, it wasn't a lot but it was a quality "dry" snow followed by cool dry day. Otherwise, this winter has been a bit of a dud; I can't speak to the Christmas snow since I was in North Vancouver for that, which ended up with next-to-nothing. The Victoria snow must have melted quick though. North Vancouver was sure nailed yesterday, my parents reported over a foot of snow at their place in Deep Cove.

[HighlandExperience]

We have another legit cold shot coming in late tomorrow through early Tuesday. One more solidly cold night looks pretty doable.

 

One more thought about the Christmas snow. It's kind of ironic the Central Puget Sound was able to push the absolute limits of what was possible given the situation while in the same winter we couldn't score big in an almost certain snow situation. We threaded the needle so perfectly with that Christmas snow it's nearly a miracle how good it turned out. That event had added points for being on Christmas and lasting for a few days as well.

 

Also...if I was a betting man I would put some money on snow in March at some point. March actually has nearly the same average snowfall as February and I think we will see a lot more of the GOA ridge this spring.

Christmas snow made this winter special. I will give it that

[ShawniganLake]

The snow this past Wednesday afternoon helped here, it wasn't a lot but it was a quality "dry" snow followed by cool dry day. Otherwise, this winter has been a bit of a dud; I can't speak to the Christmas snow since I was in North Vancouver for that, which ended up with next-to-nothing. The Victoria snow must have melted quick though. North Vancouver was sure nailed yesterday, my parents reported over a foot of snow at their place in Deep Cove.

Probably a glass half empty view. But I think the Christmas snow made Christmas special not the winter season special.

[Esquimalt]

I think we've spend all our luck.  Looking at the models I see nothing but 39 degree rain upcoming.  Unless that March 1st event suddenly becomes good looking, I don't see there being anything more .  Just not our winter.  

[Jesse]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I give my winter an A-. Anytime I get at least a foot of snow at my house it gets an A- at the very least. Not an A because I didn't get a January Arctic Blast or even snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think we've spend all our luck.  Looking at the models I see nothing but 39 degree rain upcoming.  Unless that March 1st event suddenly becomes good looking, I don't see there being anything more .  Just not our winter.

 

Late next week is dripping with potential. But you are at 6ft so i see your point.

[Arctic Front]

How much snow did you get Arctic Front?

A sloppy inch roughly. Temp was too warm to produce anything meaningful. Looks like just north of me did much better.

[Farmboy]

Winter cancel?

[MossMan]

Winter cancel?

Sure is sounding that way on here!

[MossMan]

A sloppy inch roughly. Temp was too warm to produce anything meaningful. Looks like just north of me did much better.

Well crap. I was seeing posts from my friends between Mt Vernon and Alger and they had nearly 8”!

[Jesse]

Winter cancel?

Just 106 hours and 19 minutes left. Let’s make this count guys!

[Jesse]

Sure is sounding that way on here!

Sometimes just looking at the models yourself can be better than getting swayed back and forth by the mercurial mood of this forum.

 

Basically there are a lot of frustrated Vancouver Island and Skagit county posters today who just watched areas directly to their north and east score big time.