March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

I will take a 70 degree day in March for several 30 degree days in return!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Thanks for the link. Dry soils wouldn't have been enough to push us over 106-107 last August. We're in a city with plenty of trees, watered lawns, and two large rivers. There's a reason we've never been above 107, despite 850's reaching 28+ before.

You're welcome. Eventually PDX will break 107 and set an all time record high. It sounds like a daunting task but we're talking only 1 or 2 more degrees here. It might happen this summer, next summer or in the next 50 years but it will eventually happen. Records are meant to be broken. SEA for the longest time was stuck at 100 but they finally broke through and got to 103 back in 2009 to set an all time record high. SEA is practically all water so nobody probably expected them to shatter their old record like that. Maybe PDX will break their record like how SEA did by 3 degrees and we jump to 110. Who knows?

[snow_wizard]

Does anyone have the link for the progress of the solar magnetic field strength (graph format)?  I thought I had it in my favorites, but I don't and have been unable to find it online.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

http://komonews.com/news/local/emergency-crews-respond-to-report-of-fall-at-rattlesnake-ledge

 

Is this near your area Tim?

Very unfortunate this happened. Maybe a rattlesnake scared him?

[snow_wizard]

Nice day!

 

And with a ULL parked right over us.  This is much more common during our cold years.  Great pattern for frosty nights.

[TT-SEA]

Very unfortunate this happened. Maybe a rattlesnake scared him?

 

Slipped on a icy patch and fell hundreds of feet to his death.   

 

And there are no rattlesnakes around here.  

[TT-SEA]

44 and sunny at Snoqualmie Summit... my sons are up there skiing with friends right now.

 

[Front Ranger]

You're welcome. Eventually PDX will break 107 and set an all time record high. It sounds like a daunting task but we're talking only 1 or 2 more degrees here. It might happen this summer, next summer or in the next 50 years but it will eventually happen. Records are meant to be broken. SEA for the longest time was stuck at 100 but they finally broke through and got to 103 back in 2009 to set an all time record high. SEA is practically all water so nobody probably expected them to shatter their old record like that. Maybe PDX will break their record like how SEA did by 3 degrees and we jump to 110. Who knows?

Good point about SEA. No one expected them to hit 103 with that air mass (though the land changes around there almost certainly played a role), and no one can say with absolute authority that PDX could not have hit 108 or higher with the air mass last August, if conditions had been a bit different.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Slipped on a icy patch and fell hundreds of feet to his death.

 

And there are no rattlesnakes around here.

Oh I see. There was a woman here in PDX who went hiking on one of the trails near Multnomah Falls during winter recently and she went missing. They are saying she probably slipped and fell down a step incline. To this day her body has never been found. At least the family in this instance has closure and they have a body. Whenever I go hiking I'm always on the safe side and always watch my steps.

 

I just figured there were rattlesnakes if it was called that. What's the story of it being named Rattlesnake Ledge?

[TT-SEA]

Oh I see. There was a woman here in PDX who went hiking on one of the trails near Multnomah Falls during winter recently and she went missing. They are saying she probably slipped and fell down a step incline. To this day her body has never been found. At least the family in this instance has closure and they have a body. Whenever I go hiking I'm always on the safe side and always watch my steps.

 

I just figured there were rattlesnakes if it was called that. What's the story of it being named Rattlesnake Ledge?

 

The early settlers thought the sound of the wind through the native grass sounded like rattlesnakes.   

 

Everyone assumes there are rattlesnakes here because of the name... but there are none.   There are no poisonous snakes here at all.  

[BLI snowman]

Good point about SEA. No one expected them to hit 103 with that air mass (though the land changes around there almost certainly played a role), and no one can say with absolute authority that PDX could not have hit 108 or higher with the air mass last August, if conditions had been a bit different.

 

Just wanted to remind you that Sand Point actually hit 105 in 2009, nine degrees warmer than their next highest event in their POR. 

 

I don't think any land changes around SEA noticeably influenced the magnitude of that extreme event.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

44 and sunny at Snoqualmie Summit... my sons are up there skiing with friends right now.

 

 

It's 44F on the summit? Pretty crazy given the 850mb temps are sitting around at least -3C. Is the sensor exposed to the sun?

[TT-SEA]

It's 44F on the summit? Pretty crazy given the 850mb temps are sitting around at least -3C. Is the sensor exposed to the sun?

 

Not sure... their reports are usually very accurate.  

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good point about SEA. No one expected them to hit 103 with that air mass (though the land changes around there almost certainly played a role), and no one can say with absolute authority that PDX could not have hit 108 or higher with the air mass last August, if conditions had been a bit different.

Yeah that airmass was truly special back in 2009. Even though PDX didn't tie or set a record it was close. It reached 106 on 2 consecutive days which is quite a feat.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The early settlers thought the sound of the wind through the native grass sounded like rattlesnakes.

 

Everyone assumes there are rattlesnakes here because of the name... but there are none. There are no poisonous snakes here at all.

Fascinating story, kind of makes sense.

[Front Ranger]

Just wanted to remind you that Sand Point actually hit 105 in 2009, nine degrees warmer than their next highest event in their POR. 

 

I don't think any land changes around SEA noticeably influenced the magnitude of that extreme event.

 

True, but Sand Point POR only goes back to 1986. They have no record from events like June 1955, July 1958, August 1960, and August 1981 - all of which brought triple digit temps to parts of the Seattle area. Given that they're further away from the water than SEA, it's not shocking they were a bit warmer that day.

 

Either way, this only further supports my point. No one could have looked at the air mass from July 2009 and predicted 103 at SEA or 105 at Sand Point. So it doesn't really make sense to say PDX could not have gone as high as 108+ with the air mass last August, just because they've seen air masses just as warm before and didn't.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure... their reports are usually very accurate.  

 

 

It is unlikely, but possible if they had a lot of sun. Got up to 46 here today before convective grapuel showers developed. 

[HighlandExperience]

Fascinating story, kind of makes sense.

Yea there is definitely no rattlesnakes there. Right now it’s mostly snow and ice.

[TT-SEA]

Yea there is definitely no rattlesnakes there. Right now it’s mostly snow and ice.

 

Helicopters have been flying overhead during the day.   Always a bad noise here because you know they are trying to rescue or recover someone.  

[TT-SEA]

Very pretty sky here today with some convective cloud development over the Cascades...

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

True, but Sand Point POR only goes back to 1986. They have no record from events like June 1955, July 1958, August 1960, and August 1981 - all of which brought triple digit temps to parts of the Seattle area. Given that they're further away from the water than SEA, it's not shocking they were a bit warmer that day.

 

Either way, this only further supports my point. No one could have looked at the air mass from July 2009 and predicted 103 at SEA or 105 at Sand Point. So it doesn't really make sense to say PDX could not have gone as high as 108+ with the air mass last August, just because they've seen air masses just as warm before and didn't.

July 2009 was an extremely hot air mass and, more importantly in Seattle's case, an extremely amplified ridge. Wednesday was the warmest day, but the thermal trough took on a negative tilt and took the edge off of things at PDX, relatively speaking. I remember there being some anecdotal reports of 110 in Lewis County. Seattle's 103/105 certainly wasn't a renegade.

[snow_wizard]

I like the looks of the progression over the next two weeks.  Looks like a generally cold month in the works with a couple of spikes to make things interesting.  The most dynamic springs are the ones where the temps are on a bit of a roller coaster.  Those are usually the ones with the most frost also.

[DareDuck]

44 and sunny at Snoqualmie Summit... my sons are up there skiing with friends right now.

 

Never got above 25 at Bachelor today. It was a very nice day of skiing, but the two tree well deaths yesterday added a bit of sorrow and anxiety. With the backside opening tomorrow, there’s about 1500 acres of a lot of untouched new deep snow. I hope the snow has been able to settle since yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Never got above 25 at Bachelor today. It was a very nice day of skiing, but the two tree well deaths yesterday added a bit of sorrow and anxiety. With the backside opening tomorrow, there’s about 1500 acres of a lot of untouched new deep snow. I hope the snow has been able to settle since yesterday.

 

Crazy... just reading about those incidents.   There had not been a tree well death there since 2002 and then they have two in one day.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Were those deaths in the maintained ski area at Bachelor or outside it? I can imagine there is civil liability if it was within the maintained boundaries. Of course they have insurance for those kinds of things, but from a business perspective those kinds of things are bad publicity and raise your premiums.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hit 46 here under mostly sunny skies. Then afternoon convection got going and had off and on light grapuel showers the rest of the afternoon. Down to 36 now. 46/28 on the day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like EUG is going to end up with a 44/30 day. Good for a -8 departure.

[DareDuck]

Were those deaths in the maintained ski area at Bachelor or outside it? I can imagine there is civil liability if it was within the maintained boundaries. Of course they have insurance for those kinds of things, but from a business perspective those kinds of things are bad publicity and raise your premiums.

Inbounds. Tree wells are a special kind of danger, you can't predict which trees will be the worst, they're everywhere, and attempted to "fill" them in would be impossible after every storm. 

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)
 
http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1711-winter-2017-18-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=328518

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Inbounds. Tree wells are a special kind of danger, you can't predict which trees will be the worst, they're everywhere, and attempted to "fill" them in would be impossible after every storm. 

 

I have a friend who moved to Bend a few months ago. He always give me updates about how much snow he's had, and it seems like WAY more than you have on your signature. He lives in the southern part of town. I think a mile or two south of the business loop before it connects back into the main 97. He is a big time exaggerator so I'm not sure what to think of his snow reports. In your experience does that part of town get a lot more snow than where you live?

[DareDuck]

I have a friend who moved to Bend a few months ago. He always give me updates about how much snow he's had, and it seems like WAY more than you have on your signature. He lives in the southern part of town. I think a mile or two south of the business loop before it connects back into the main 97. He is a big time exaggerator so I'm not sure what to think of his snow reports. In your experience does that part of town get a lot more snow than where you live?

It certainly does. I'd guess he has around 25". Every little bit south and west of Bend will get you more snow and I'm technically in the NE part of town. We're right on the cutoff line for most storms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS looks pretty chilly in the long range. Plenty of snow chances up here after about the 12-13th...We'll see, I doubt I've seen my last snow.

 

Down to 29 now under starry skies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was driving down I-5 from Eugene to L.A. and caught some fun weather, including convective storms which made for beautiful cloud formations. Mt. Shasta looked moody with the clouds around it:

 

 

 

 

Wonderful pics. Thank you for sharing!

[Front Ranger]

July 2009 was an extremely hot air mass and, more importantly in Seattle's case, an extremely amplified ridge. Wednesday was the warmest day, but the thermal trough took on a negative tilt and took the edge off of things at PDX, relatively speaking. I remember there being some anecdotal reports of 110 in Lewis County. Seattle's 103/105 certainly wasn't a renegade.

 

That wasn't the main point. Whether or not SEA was at all assisted by land use changes in that instance (which are well documented and fairly consistent on warm, sunny summer days), July 2009 proves that you can't just judge surface temps based on past events with similar 850s. There's more to it than that, as you alluded to.

[snow_wizard]

Another 150 ridge develops during week two on the 0z GFS.   This might be a spring I can actually like.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS is a bit early with the cold compared to the ensembles, but definitely a strong dip in the long range.

[snow_wizard]

That wasn't the main point. Whether or not SEA was at all assisted by land use changes in that instance (which are well documented and fairly consistent on warm, sunny summer days), July 2009 proves that you can't just judge surface temps based on past events with similar 850s. There's more to it than that, as you alluded to.

 

That July 2009 heatwave was a beast.  It hit 102 here and it was HOT.  One of the only times I can remember that metal that was sitting in the shade felt slightly hot to the touch.  I was actually surprised it wasn't a couple of degrees hotter here in light of what other places had.  I have multiple thermometers so I know the reading was correct.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS is a bit early with the cold compared to the ensembles, but definitely a strong dip in the long range.

 

I have a pretty good feeling this will be a really nice spring.  A lot of cold trough to ridge transitions which means lots of frost and pretty nice weather.  This February had the highest pressure ever recorded over the GOA for the monthly composite.  That puts us in league with 1955, 1985, and 2011 among other years that had cold springs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have a pretty good feeling this will be a really nice spring.  A lot of cold trough to ridge transitions which means lots of frost and pretty nice weather.  This February had the highest pressure ever recorded over the GOA for the monthly composite.  That puts us in league with 1955, 1985, and 2011 among other years that had cold springs.

 

I enjoy cool springs.

[snow_wizard]

I enjoy cool springs.

 

I especially like the ones that have a nice mix of cold scenarios.  Some of the springs in the 1980s were incredible.  Extreme temperature fluctuations, very late snowfalls, late frosts, plenty of sunshine.  I hate springs that feature endless light rain and gloom.