March Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

The majority of second year -ENSOs feature stronger NPAC anticyclones during the boreal winter/spring seasons. That tendency is also more prolific during the subsequent summers/autumns (and is additionally more equatorward-biased) under -QBO conditions.

 

[Jesse]

EPS is even colder than previous runs in that period.

 

It also really warms up fast across the entire West in the 10-15 period.

The version of the EPS I look at only goes out to day 10 and I’m fine with that. Too many wild swings beyond that range, sort of like the LR GFS. 10 days out is pretty far away as it is.

[TT-SEA]

55 and sunny here with almost calm conditions... really nice out there.

[weather girl]

EPS is even colder than previous runs in that period.

 

It also really warms up fast across the entire West in the 10-15 period.

The warm up makes me think we could be evolving into our summer pattern. I know it’s too early to know anything, but it seems like it might be. Also, isn’t tornado activity up during a La Niña, even a week one? There just aren’t aa lot of sign for that at all.

[Jesse]

The warm up makes me think we could be evolving into our summer pattern. I know it’s too early to know anything, but it seems like it might be. Also, isn’t tornado activity up during a La Niña, even a week one? There just aren’t aa lot of sign for that at all.

 

Late March is pretty early for the "summer pattern" to show up. I don't think it has ever happened that early in history, even in ridiculously warm springs like 2015 and 2016.

 

This is also assuming a pattern progged at days 10-15 is even remotely close to being correct.

[seattleweatherguy]

Can't we have a hot spring and cool summer one of these years

[Phil]

The warm up makes me think we could be evolving into our summer pattern. I know it’s too early to know anything, but it seems like it might be. Also, isn’t tornado activity up during a La Niña, even a week one? There just aren’t aa lot of sign for that at all.

I suspect that if the summer pattern started in March/April every year, last summer would have turned out quite differently.

 

That said, I haven’t actually checked for a statistical relationship, so I’m not certain there’s zero connection.

[seattleweatherguy]

I always read komo 4 blog they claim el nino or la nina doesn't seem to effect the summer pattern much

[Front Ranger]

His concern was skiing in water and slush and the snow pack disappearing.   That would only be a problem with warm rain.   Its currently 45 and sunny in the village... 32 at mid mountain... and in the mid 20s at the top. 

 

And if someone is so concerned about warmer weather and sunshine which is part of spring skiing... then don't plan a big ski trip in the spring!  

 

I would love to be up there today.    Comfortable and warm with amazing views and soft snow.   Spring skiing at its best.  

 

I think you are just    with the term "spring skiing".

 

Temps around 40 with sunshine and calm winds is definitely better than rain or wind, no doubt.

[Front Ranger]

The version of the EPS I look at only goes out to day 10 and I’m fine with that. Too many wild swings beyond that range, sort of like the LR GFS. 10 days out is pretty far away as it is.

 

I have another convert! Just say NO to models beyond 10 days.

[Front Ranger]

I always read komo 4 blog they claim el nino or la nina doesn't seem to effect the summer pattern much

 

Yeah, ENSO definitely has a smaller effect during summer.

 

That being said, -ENSO/-PDO summers do tend to be cooler overall for the PNW.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hopefully this summer is a -ENSO/-PDO summer? How can we tell/ when. I'm learning so much after being on this forum for a couple years.

[Front Ranger]

Hopefully this summer is a -ENSO/-PDO summer? How can we tell/ when. I'm learning so much after being on this forum for a couple years.

 

We are in -ENSO now. We have a few months to see if we move into -PDO as well. No update for February yet, but it looked to be heading more that direction.

[Geos]

Made it to 55 at my location today after a really frosty start at 30. Noticing the cherry blossoms slowly coming out at the trees at work as well. 

 

Looks like another good dumping of snow for the Sierra's starting tomorrow.

[Phil]

We are in -ENSO now. We have a few months to see if we move into -PDO as well. No update for February yet, but it looked to be heading more that direction.

The March PDO number should be well into negative territory when it’s all said and done, I suspect. There could be a bounce-back in April following the Archambault event, then a return to the long period drop?

 

The IO/IPWP tends to dictate the summer PDO, so I’m watching those waters closely. Right now it’s a weird looking mode there..everything is shifted east of climo.

[TT-SEA]

55 with a dewpoint of 19 and sunny at SEA.

 

Beautiful day out there... some cumulus clouds over the mountains but sunny all day here.

[bainbridgekid]

55 with a dewpoint of 19 and sunny at SEA.

 

Beautiful day out there... some cumulus clouds over the mountains but sunny all day here.

The bright sunshine at 7 PM is pretty nice too. Tomorrow should be great as well.

[Phil]

Random fireball here about 30mins ago. To the N/NE.

[snow_wizard]

55 with a dewpoint of 19 and sunny at SEA.

 

Beautiful day out there... some cumulus clouds over the mountains but sunny all day here.

 

A dp of 19?  Crazy stuff there!  I'm really liking this pattern.  Clear frosty nights / mostly sunny days with a trough right over us is good stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Random fireball here about 30mins ago. To the N/NE.

 

Those things are so cool.  I've seen a couple in my lifetime.  One of them came in from behind me while I was driving down the freeway.  Quite a sight.

[snow_wizard]

OLM just barely missed a record low today when they dropped to 26.  The record is 24 from 1988.

[Front Ranger]

55 with a dewpoint of 19 and sunny at SEA.

 

Beautiful day out there... some cumulus clouds over the mountains but sunny all day here.

 

Just a tad different than last spring.

[TT-SEA]

Just a tad different than last spring.

So far.

 

I honestly expected it to be better after the very persistent precip in January and February.  I knew it was a good sign for spring.

 

We could still end up with a May like 1962 though.  That was a mess from start to finish.

[GHweatherChris]

So far.

 

I honestly expected it to be better after the very persistent precip in January and February. I knew it was a good sign for spring.

 

We could still end up with a May like 1962 though. That was a mess from start to finish.

Or not....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The majority of second year -ENSOs feature stronger NPAC anticyclones during the boreal winter/spring seasons. That tendency is also more prolific during the subsequent summers/autumns (and is additionally more equatorward-biased) under -QBO conditions.

 

Nat Johnson is my brother.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

50/30 here today. 37 now with light rain falling. Winter weather advisory up for Oregon cascades.

[Jesse]

50/30 here today. 37 now with light rain falling. Winter weather advisory up for Oregon cascades.

Good. They really need it.

 

Would be nice to have a high in the 40s at some point this March.

[TT-SEA]

Good. They really need it.

 

Would be nice to have a high in the 40s at some point this March.

 

Pretty sure that next Friday will fulfill that desire.  

[Phil]

Nat Johnson is my brother.

Is he actually? Or am I missing a punchline somewhere?

[FroYoBro]

Absolutely pouring here right now.

 

GO BLAZERS.

[luminen]

Dry and sunny here all day. Amazing weather today.

[Phil]

So far the Sun has been spotless on 40% of the days in 2018. That strikes me as unusually quiet for so early in the solar minimum.

 

I know some predictions are calling for the minimum to arrive early (in 2019) but the magnetic belts below the photosphere are nowhere close to their solar minimum positions right now. They won’t cross until at least 2020 at their current rate.

 

So I think the “consensus” view of a 2020 minimum will verify, largely. Then again, I’m not a solar physicist, so it really doesn’t matter what I think.

[Phil]

The D10-15 EPS isn’t very warm in the PNW. Still just starting to transition into to the ridgy episode, right at the end of the run.

 

[Jesse]

The D10-15 EPS isn’t very warm in the PNW. Still just starting to transition into to the ridgy episode, right at the end of the run.

 

 

Was wondering why it wasn’t mentioned today.

[Deweydog]

Get out your splat test kits, people.

[Jesse]

Heavy rain here tonight, the best in a long time. Can verify some positive splats on the windshield as well. Temperature is down to 39.

[TT-SEA]

Was wondering why it wasn’t mentioned today.

 

I did tell you about the EPS today.   See post below... you responded to it.

 

And it was more than transitioning at the end of the run.   It goes from cold to warm from day 10 to day 15.    Phil is showing a blended 5-day mean which does not represent the big change from day 10 to day 15.    It was definitely colder in the 7-10 day period as well.

 

Here is day 15:

 

 

EPS is even colder than previous runs in that period.  

 

It also really warms up fast across the entire West in the 10-15 period.

 

[TT-SEA]

Here was the 500mb map from this afternoon... interesting that this resulted in a perfectly sunny and pleasantly warm day up here.

 

[TT-SEA]

Some lowland snow on day 8 and 9 of the 00Z ECMWF run tonight.   Its a little slower to bring the trough inland as well.

 

[snow_wizard]

Very chilly Euro run tonight.  850s drop into the -6 to -8 range for a sustained period and significant lowland snow is indicated.