June Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Historically speaking, these Plains death ridges don’t morph into west coast ridges. They rely on completely different forcings/boundary conditions, which actually oppose one another. It would require highly coincidental timing between changes peripheral forcings for such a progression to occur. It’s not impossible, though.

 

Often times, the GFS/GEFS succumbs to its excessive parameterization schemes, especially after truncation. In a neutral setting of extrapolation, the GFS/GEFS will almost always build western ridging during the warm season. It’s a heat/moisture/terrain feedback that other long range models, like the EPS weekly extrapolations. also tend to suffer from.

I think a more likely outcome, when looking for a return to western ridging, is a weakening of the Plains/4-corners death ridge in conjunction with rising heights across the far NW-Pacific and troughing south of the Aleutians.

 

Until the pattern upstream changes, it will be difficult to maintain any kind of western ridging.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like you're best bet would be to stay on this side of the mountains.

Very possible he won't be able to outrun this one.

[Farmboy]

Luvssnowseattle must be hanging on every model run now...   What a tough spot to be in, hope it works out for him...

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is actually the best solution for the 4th... the WRF shows almost totally sunny skies that day with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

 

I would much rather have the ECMWF in my court over the GFS though.  

[TT-SEA]

Very possible he won't be able to outrun this one.

 

 

Seem unlikely... even if there is a band of rain rotating through eastern WA it would still be warm and go back to sunny much more quickly.    That is what the ECMWF shows.

[Phil]

Check out this awesome new feature on WxModels.com

 

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/almanac/temperature.php

 

Map of average highs/lows for all 365 individual days across the country. Could be other things added too, like precip, dewpoint, cloud cover, etc.

[Phil]

The average high on July 4th across the PNW lowlands is in the lower 70s.

 

So the model solutions, as they stand now, would actually be typical summer weather. The last five years were just a fluky aberration.

 

[Phil]

And the average high for today (June 27) is just barely over 70 degrees in the Seattle area.

 

 

So many on here seem to think 70 degree highs are abnormally cold. Lol. The last five years have spoiled the heat misers into complacency.

[Farmboy]

The average high on July 4th across the PNW lowlands is in the lower 70s.

 

So the model solutions, as they stand now, would actually be typical summer weather. The last five years were just a fluky aberration.

 

 

 

Low 70's North Sound area, mid 70's South Sound.  Mid-upper 70's for Clark county (Vancouver metro) & PDX metro, upper 70's to near 80 for Willamette valley....   And looks like mid- upper 60's to near 70 for coastal areas.

[James Jones]

And the average high for today (June 27) is just barely over 70 degrees in the Seattle area.

 

 

So many on here seem to think 70 degree highs are abnormally cold. Lol. The last five years have spoiled the heat misers into complacency.

Interesting maps for sure but it’s not exactly ground breaking stuff here. I think most of us have a very good grasp of our climatology.

 

Next we'll find out that our typical winter weather is filled with 40s and rain.

[Geos]

It's the year of the CZ's. GFS forms a pretty good one for late on the 2nd into the 3rd. Moistened it up from the 6z run.

 

 

[Phil]

Interesting maps for sure but it’s not exactly ground breaking stuff here. I think most of us have a very good grasp of our climatology.

I was kind of joking, but in truth I’ve seen a lot of people complaining on days where high temperatures are literally right at average, with rhetoric like “now we’re due for highs in the 80s” and other nonsense like that.

[Farmboy]

And the average high for today (June 27) is just barely over 70 degrees in the Seattle area.

 

 

So many on here seem to think 70 degree highs are abnormally cold. Lol. The last five years have spoiled the heat misers into complacency.

 

That map says 73 for the Seattle area.  In an area such as this where they're in short supply, every degree of warmth matters.... 

 

Big difference between 'just barely over 70', and 73.... 

[Front Ranger]

Ruh roh...

 

[TT-SEA]

Ruh roh...

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

 

Dude... a trough along the West Coast is a given on the 4th now.

 

Devil is the details.   Many runs have shown highs in the mid to upper 70s and sunny for that day between ULLs inside a broad trough.  

[TT-SEA]

The average high on July 4th across the PNW lowlands is in the lower 70s.

 

So the model solutions, as they stand now, would actually be typical summer weather. The last five years were just a fluky aberration.

 

 

High on the 4th at SEA in 2016 was 69.   

 

Also... 71 in 2013 and 75 in 2014 and 78 in 2017

 

 

We are well aware of climo.   Its not like its been in the 90s every year on the 4th.   

 

2015 was the exception.

 

If you average the 4th of July in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017... it comes to 73.25 at SEA.    In other words... 4 of the last 5 years have averaged almost exactly normal on that day.   Not a fluky aberration.   

[TT-SEA]

I was kind of joking, but in truth I’ve seen a lot of people complaining on days where high temperatures are literally right at average, with rhetoric like “now we’re due for highs in the 80s” and other nonsense like that.

It's not nonsense. We also have many days with highs in the 60s like today (and likely for the next several days).  So the law averages says 80s are also common to arrive at an average in the 70s.

 

Just math.

 

Your trolling is becoming less intelligent lately.

[Front Ranger]

Stress levels are definitely rising.

[El Nina]

Another perfect day. Just the right temperature for tanning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Stress levels are definitely rising.

 

Yeah!! I am pretty much freaking out on the inside, but my outward persona is Dewey Calm... NOT!!!   

 

A logistic nightmare on sooo many levels...  AND what to do with this??

 

 

[Deweydog]

Yeah!! I am pretty much freaking out on the inside, but my outward persona is Dewey Calm... NOT!!!

 

A logistic nightmare on sooo many levels... AND what to do with this??

 

IMG_0631.jpg

 

IMG_0632.jpg

Active Shooter?

 

Wow...

[Farmboy]

Yeah!! I am pretty much freaking out on the inside, but my outward persona is Dewey Calm... NOT!!!   

 

A logistic nightmare on sooo many levels...  AND what to do with this??

 

IMG_0631.jpg

 

IMG_0632.jpg

 

 

lol, there's a firework called active shooter..  It's been ages since I've been to a fireworks stand, is this new?  I foresee problems of some sort with this one... 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloud deck incoming. WeatherMate shows rain in the coast range.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

lol, there's a firework called active shooter.. It's been ages since I've been to a fireworks stand, is this new? I foresee problems of some sort with this one...

The Chinese are pretty savvy on American culture.

[The Swamp]

Yeah!! I am pretty much freaking out on the inside, but my outward persona is Dewey Calm... NOT!!!   

 

A logistic nightmare on sooo many levels...  AND what to do with this??

 

IMG_0631.jpg

 

IMG_0632.jpg

 

I'd be glad to take some of those off your hands. 

[Deweydog]

Open upstairs windows kinda evening!

[Front Ranger]

Open upstairs windows kinda evening!

Only if you're asking for mildew at Tim's house!

[Deweydog]

Only if you're asking for mildew at Tim's house!

Haha! Tim complains a lot about his wet locale!

[El Nina]

It's raining.

[El Nina]

Haha! Tim complains a lot about his wet locale!

Haha! People poke fun a lot about Tim complaining a lot about his wet locale!

[TT-SEA]

It's raining.

It's not raining here. It's a first!

[El Nina]

It's not raining here. It's a first!

I might catch up by like a trace! Baby steps...

[Phil]

[MossMan]

Everyone I spoke with in Eastern Washington today complained about how chilly it has been over there so far this season.

[Phil]

[BLI snowman]

Pretty good marine push tonight. Almost arctic front-like!

[Deweydog]

Pretty good marine push tonight. Almost arctic front-like!

12-28-90 in almost July!

[Deweydog]

July 1996 redux!

[BLI snowman]

July 1996 redux!

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0702.php

 

This one was sexy too.

 

Boring winter followed!

[MossMan]