Deweydog Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Still about 90 in the garage, which just happens to be wall to wall concrete. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Tonight is the first night of the season where I stepped outside at 11pm to let the dogs out and it was actually still mild out. 66 currently. So nice. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Had a high of 82F here with a 62F dewpoint. Not seeing a drop of rain in the next 2 weeks, hope we can avoid the fires this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Had a high of 82F here with a 62F dewpoint. Not seeing a drop of rain in the next 2 weeks, hope we can avoid the fires this year.The interior is in pretty good shape right now moisture wise. Still there was a fire sparked near Kamloops today. The forecast for tomorrow there is 90F with 35-45mph gusts. Southern Vancouver Island is the driest area in the south, currently sitting in high to extreme fire danger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Tonight is the first night of the season where I stepped outside at 11pm to let the dogs out and it was actually still mild out. 66 currently. So nice.Not even mid June. There was some decent heat then. Much Warmer than today for northern parts of the region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Not even mid June. There was some decent heat then. Much Warmer than today for northern parts of the region.True but the evenings at least in my location cooled very quickly into the low to mid 50’s by evening. Last night felt great! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Looks like most locations in the Willamette Valley finished yesterday in the upper 90s. Troutdale made it to 99 over on the east side. Sunday and Monday we will have another chance to get into the triple digits. PDX only made it down to the mid 60s again this morning. Going to be another hot day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 12Z GFS shows the cool down starting Wednesday morning now... Phil will be happy. His first couple days will likely be quite cool. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Good news with the faster timing is that ridging is building back in already by Friday on the 12Z. Trough slides through BC and gives us a fresh, clean air mass by Thursday. Too bad it probably won't bring any rain. A quick shot of rain would also be nice. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Already 84 in Corvallis and Monmouth. Springfield at 83. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Good news with the faster timing is that ridging is building back in already by Friday on the 12Z. Trough slides through BC and gives us a fresh, clean air mass by Thursday. Too bad it probably won't bring any rain. A quick shot of rain would also be nice.Yeah both the GFS and GEM pump back in the western ridge next weekend. The timing can't be even better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week. PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 PDX is running four degrees behind yesterday at this time. Hmmmmm.... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 PDX is running four degrees behind yesterday at this time. Hmmmmm.... Same with SEA. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Up to 79 after a low of 55 this morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week. PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day.It will be interesting to see what happens first - your grass turning brown or a full-scale Jesse meltdown Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 It will be interesting to see what happens first - your grass turning brown or a full-scale Jesse meltdownI will not allow my grass to turn brown. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 12Z ECMWF is faster and weaker with the trough next week. PDX bottoms out at 81 on Thursday... warming up again by Friday and back around 90 by Saturday which is significantly warmer than the 00Z run for that day.That’s not good...for Oregon. Meanwhile I can hardly keep up with my enthusiast grass, landscaping, and weeds! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Another gorgeous day out here in Hillsboro! Already up to 86. The 12z EURO not backing down from near triple digits on Sunday and Monday. Still showing 98 and 97 highs for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 I will not allow my grass to turn brown. Correction: the free-ranging grass of your microclimate. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Correction: the free-ranging grass of your microclimate.Ahhh... that will be happening soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 93F. Looks like upper 90s again on the way. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Ahhh... that will be happening soon.Probably the same for Jesse. #prayforbreezes Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Two down, five to go! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crf450ish2 Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 New EPS weeklies keep trades pumping along the dateline. Will make it tough for a niño to get going. We're going to end up ENSO neutral or very weak Nina.... My prediction.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 13, 2018 Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 Another reason to suspect things might turn cooler again in early/mid August (following the warm pool MJO passage) is the fact that the warm pool itself is much weaker this year. Here’s a gif I made comparing SSTAs now to last year at this time. Note the warm pool has ventilated quite a bit, which started after the SSW event. The globe is cooler too, which can only help re: cool anomalies. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 13, 2018 We're going to end up ENSO neutral or very weak Nina.... My prediction....I think it'll be very very weak +ENSO but like literally right barely above the 0 line. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 I think it'll be very very weak +ENSO but like literally right barely above the 0 line.I’m leaning that way too. ONI peak into “niño conditions” by late August or early September, then a walkback to “warm neutral” during O/N/D, then a SSW and/or WWB event around the holidays, with the real move to El Niño initiating during J/F/M 2019 (at least in terms of the subsurface/degree of thermocline shoaling). I suspect 2019/20 will be an El Niño winter, and whether or not it’s a multi-year niño, I suspect it will be followed by a multi-year niña in the early 2020s given what has been a fairly predictable cycle of solar forcing on the IPWP longitude and EHEM ITCZ. Almost like a heartbeat. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Another reason to suspect things might turn cooler again in early/mid August (following the warm pool MJO passage) is the fact that the warm pool itself is much weaker this year. Here’s a gif I made comparing SSTAs now to last year at this time. Note the warm pool has ventilated quite a bit, which started after the SSW event. The globe is cooler too, which can only help re: cool anomalies. FWIW, that’s a good amount of high latitude cooling so far this year. Pretty different from the other recent (non super-niño) years, like 2014 and 2016. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Still 96 in Springfield. Hottest spot in the valley today. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Beautiful sunset about to unfold. Get the cameras ready. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Looks like the 600dam line wants to make a comeback 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 I’m leaning that way too. ONI peak into “niño conditions” by late August or early September, then a walkback to “warm neutral” during O/N/D, then a SSW and/or WWB event around the holidays, with the real move to El Niño initiating during J/F/M 2019 (at least in terms of the subsurface/degree of thermocline shoaling). I suspect 2019/20 will be an El Niño winter, and whether or not it’s a multi-year niño, I suspect it will be followed by a multi-year niña in the early 2020s given what has been a fairly predictable cycle of solar forcing on the IPWP longitude and EHEM ITCZ. Almost like a heartbeat.Nice another El Niño next summer. Should be a hot one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Fire in Silver Falls Park today... https://www.kgw.com/article/news/local/marion-county/fire-in-silver-falls-state-park-grows-to-nearly-6-acres-ymca-camp-evacuated/283-573703206 Need rain down there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Nice another El Niño next summer. Should be a hot one.Not necessarily. Plenty of chilly and/or wet +ENSO summers in your climate record. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Not necessarily. Plenty of chilly and/or wet +ENSO summers in your climate record. We don't really do the the chilly summer thing around here anymore. Been a very long time since our last historically notable one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 We don't really do the the chilly summer thing around here anymore. Been a very long time since our last historically notable one.That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s. And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s. And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there.Really hope you're right in the impending cooler years for us. We shall see. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 Snapped a pic of the fire today on my way home. Was putting off quite a bit of smoke. I mistook it for a field burn when I saw it leaving Salem, but realized it was further into the hills than any of the grass fields once I got closer. This pic is about 2 miles west of my place and about 5 miles WNW of the fire. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 14, 2018 Report Share Posted July 14, 2018 That doesn’t preclude their return in any way. The mode of interhemispheric circulation has just been exceptionally unfavorable for cool western summers in recent decades...same goes for much of Europe. Especially since the mid/late 1990s. And folks living in NE Canada are in the exact opposite situation..where warm summers have become quite fleeting in recent years. This year the cold has been demolishing records up there. Eh, the climate here has been slowly but steadily warming for as long as Europeans have been here to record the temperature. This isn't something that just started happening in the last few decades, though our recent run of summers has been ridiculously anomalous compared to the historical averages. It's on the climate to prove that it's stopped warming at this point. We'll still have the occasional blips on the way up like spring-early summer 2011, winter '16-'17, or the general 2008-2012 period, but I see no reason to believe that the long term trend is suddenly going to reverse course. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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