PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh boy… 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like EURO is on board with a 2nd anomalously cold upper level airmass. 

[yellowstone]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh boy… 

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, yellowstone said:

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

This is the NWS we are talking about. 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

The Portland office has really fallen in love with this percentage method.

[ShawniganLake]

40 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not much snow on this run for most of the lowlands. 

Less arctic air spills offshore.  Limits surface low development. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Less arctic air spills offshore.  Limits surface low development. 

Yeah hopefully a slight westward trend in the next couple days. Plenty of time for things to change a bit…or for some surprises. 

[thickhog]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This is the NWS we are talking about. 

A group that is far more likely to accurately forecast what's actually going to happen than this board, that's for D**n sure. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO actually looked pretty decent. Sorry to rain on everyone's parade with a positive comment. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Portland office has really fallen in love with this percentage method.

Those dang Gen Z's. 

[Timmy]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO crashes the party.

 

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO actually looked pretty decent. Sorry to rain on everyone's parade with a positive comment. 

 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO actually looked pretty decent. Sorry to rain on everyone's parade with a positive comment. 

Should still be a good time. I’d be pretty pleased with a repeat of December IMBY…which looks quite plausible. We all know these things always have surprises and can change for the better within 24-48 hours. 

[Gummy]

8 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I’m dumbstruck that this is real. This event is 5 days away and they’re making 0.1” snowfall predictions?!?  Even with the range, this is insane. 

I know right? Why not just put trace amounts of snow. They must have some hours an intern needs to fill with busy work.

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Portland office has really fallen in love with this percentage method.

As best as I could tell the area closest to me was supposed to average .01” of snow last Monday evening according to that stupid thing. I got 1.25” of snow. I don’t get these stupid percentage things. 
 

Stupid. 
 

Edited February 17, 2023 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Timmy said:

 

 

Eventually we all learn about Andrew.   Another lesson for everyone this morning.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Timmy said:

 

 

It's like this Timothy, I read everyone's depressive comments, make a factually true comment, "Euro crashes the party." A social commentary on the forums mood. Then I look at the run myself and comment on the fact it is pretty good. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Portland office has really fallen in love with this percentage method.

They should hire you:

”Tuesday night: 10-90% chance of it coming. FEBRUARY. Models will look different next weekend”

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Eventually we all learn about Andrew.   Another lesson for everyone this morning.  

You and Timmy have a lot in common, besides the name. Two words, first one starts with an S, second one ends with an A.

[High Desert Mat?]

As long as it’s rainy and coolish through June in North Bend I’m going to grade this winter an A++

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, High Desert Mat? said:

As long as it’s rainy and coolish through June in North Bend I’m going to grade this winter an A++

NO PERSONAL ATTACKS

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's like this Timothy, I read everyone's depressive comments, make a factually true comment, "Euro crashes the party." A social commentary on the forums mood. Then I look at the run myself and comment on the fact it is pretty good. 

 

Its almost like everyone has their own perspective and preferences... and opinions are entirely subjective.    This will have to be investigated further.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Might be nice if we got a look at the EPS. 

[yellowstone]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The Portland office has really fallen in love with this percentage method.

I’m all for the probability forecasts!  I think they’re terrific and much more clear than what’s been done in the past. That said, the timing and precision of these is just silly. Perhaps PERHAPS if they were expecting a major storm, but for .1” up to max of 2?  They don’t need to do this 5 days out. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like EURO is on board with a 2nd anomalously cold upper level airmass. 

Good catch Andrew.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

As long as it’s rainy and coolish through June in North Bend I’m going to grade this winter an A++

That is almost always the case.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Good catch Andrew.

Someone who just reads the forum, but never looks at the models (Like Randy), probably got the wrong impression of the EURO. 

Come to think of it, he has the same thing the Tim's have. 

Edited February 17, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... mean snowfall through next Wednesday.   Slightly less than 00Z run.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someone who just reads the forum, but never looks at the models (Like Randy), probably got the wrong impression of the EURO. 

Come to think of it, he has the same thing the Tim's have. 

I found the recent model trend to move away from well established blocking lasting a long time to now showing a very quick return to cold zonal with no blocking at all to be sort of interesting.     

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, yellowstone said:

I’m all for the probability forecasts!  I think they’re terrific and much more clear than what’s been done in the past. That said, the timing and precision of these is just silly. Perhaps PERHAPS if they were expecting a major storm, but for .1” up to max of 2?  They don’t need to do this 5 days out. 

Their discussions are quite often just a breakdown of the probabilistic stuff as opposed to a more technical discussion of the actual meteorology. PDX used to be more middle of the road when it came to that, although Spokane’s have always seemed to be the best in the region even though they don’t seem to talk about what’s happening at my house.

[SnowWillarrive]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS... mean snowfall through next Wednesday.   Slightly less than 00Z run.

It’s over 

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I found the recent model trend to move away from well established blocking lasting a long time to now showing a very quick return to cold zonal with no blocking at all to be sort of interesting.     

The three significant blocking episodes this winter… all very favorable and all broke/will break down rapidly but in distinguishable ways. Exciting times!

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s over 

Did you used to post as Alpine Experience?

[High Desert Mat?]

Andrew, that wasn’t a personal attack, I was referring to North Bend Oregon. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Andrew, that wasn’t a personal attack, I was referring to North Bend Oregon. 

I think he was referring to the forum’s biggest vicTim.  

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The three significant blocking episodes this winter… all very favorable and all broke/will break down rapidly but in distinguishable ways. Exciting times!

I really thought this block was going to have staying power... but apparently it's going to vanish just as fast as the others.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think he was referring to the forum’s biggest vicTim.  

I am sure Matt will agree that this post is dripping with irony. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I really thought this block was going to have staying power... but apparently it's going to vanish just as fast as the others.  

Unfortunately long lasting events like December 2021 or February 2019 only come around every few years it seems. Majority of events only last 2-5 days. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's the opening salvo to a very cool and progressively wetter pattern. Pretty obvious pattern progression. Buckle up. 

[umadbro]

Another day. Same handful of people bickering over literally nothing. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Nothing says guilty like needing a defense lawyer.