PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

January was exhausting. What a terrible weather month that was.

It sucked except for the end.  Pretty much expected in recent years.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

More like January tried to break us. Jim almost packed his pot pies, tin foil hats and Tandy 5000 in the station wagon and departed for snowier pastures.

Live view from the Wizard! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at my #'s we are sitting at a monthly mean of 37.3 through yesterday. Projecting through the rest of the month, I went fairly conservative and still came up with 35.3, which isn't close to 2019, 1989, 1956, but looks like it would place 5th in our period of record just behind 1990 (And just ahead of 1948 and 1949), very possible we could beat 1990. Not a chance we break into the top 3. If we do make top 10 it would be our 2nd top 5 cold month since November. 

Looking ahead to March, 1951 (37.4) and 2012 (37.6) are the two big dogs. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

You are way behind... we already discussed this! 

I figured.

[MossMan]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I figured.

You got the day off as well? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The next cold trough is on its way at the end of the EURO. 

[Slushy Inch]

Little more WW snow on EPS. Also, I believe it was the first OP run with wrap around moisture Wednesday morning.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

San Jose has only reached 30 degrees in March one time in the last 117 years, in 1966. 

I would absolutely hate that climate.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Little more WW snow on EPS. Also first OP run with wrap around moisture Wednesday morning.

That wrap around stuff is the wild card.  I ended up with 1.3" of that last Feb and absolutely nothing was forecast.

[snow_wizard]

8 consecutive sub freezing mins on the ECMWF for SEA.  Very nice!

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Little more WW snow on EPS. Also, I believe it was the first OP run with wrap around moisture Wednesday morning.

The WRF is picking this up…. Who knows tho. It’s the boomer model

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well would you look at that!  Weekend snow is very much on.

Cold rain by that time in Seattle.

Probably snow at some point earlier, but seems to warm up pretty quickly after the precip arrives.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That wrap around stuff is the wild card.  I ended up with 1.3" of that last Feb and absolutely nothing was forecast.

Check this trend out. 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter is just getting started. lol

Yup. This.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would absolutely hate that climate.

Don’t you absolutely hate this one?

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

The WRF is picking this up…. Who knows tho. It’s the boomer model

Maybe GFS is actually better at one facet of modeling. I think it outperformed in a similar situation early this Winter.

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

We had a break for most of Jan. I guess we did get a little chilly though.

The fact that even that month managed a decent cold snap at the end redeems it somewhat in my book. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would absolutely hate that climate.

We have relatives in CA and lots of relatives in MN and WI and they all pretty much say they would absolutely hate this climate.    But I think I like our climate significantly more than you.   

[Slushy Inch]

Member 12 totally realistic, right?

[Deweydog]

It’s been a good weekend.

 

[AlTahoe]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would absolutely hate that climate.

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

It’s been a good weekend.

 

Props to the GFS honestly.

[Meatyorologist]

38 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

A real nice improvement.

Night and day.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

Get on the windward side of those mountains and lots of places average 50–90"/year.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Don’t you absolutely hate this one?

Sometimes.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cold rain by that time in Seattle.

Probably snow at some point earlier, but seems to warm up pretty quickly after the precip arrives.

Precip is pretty much done by that point.  Most of it falls with 925mb temps in the -2 to -3 range.

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

I lived there and it was the most boring weather ever. Downtown averages like 14" a year while the mountains near Los Gatos 12 miles away get 35" 

It would be insanely boring. 

I think where you're at would be too much for me.  My ideal climate would be colder than your area, but more like 40 inches of snow average a year.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Looks exactly like some of our recent summer ensemble charts, except upside down:

Wow, close to -5 by the end.

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Looks exactly like some of our recent summer ensemble charts, except upside down:

SSWs favor the East though!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow, still close to -5 by the end.

Yeah and that’s Eugene, so I’m sure Seattle is a big cooler. 

[Deweydog]

For that small handful of snow-with-cold fans out there, I took a look at some past examples of these coastal sliders which are stacked at or near the center of the ULL. Pretty consistent with modeling as the best dynamics align parallel or just south of the low. 2/95 illustrates this pretty well…

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah and that’s Eugene, so I’m sure Seattle is a big cooler. 

-6

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

SSWs favor the East though!!!

I heard a few days ago that the entire SSW thing is bupkis. 

[Slushy Inch]

FEB is the new JAN, and March, is the new FEB I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For that small handful of snow-with-cold fans out there, I took a look at some past examples of these coastal sliders which are stacked at or near the center of the ULL. Pretty consistent with modeling as the best dynamics align parallel or just south of the low. 2/95 illustrates this pretty well…

 

Hmmmm 

[ChrisAmunRA]

Gusts of 35 mph here in Belltown/Downtown Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

FEB is the new JAN, and March, is the new FEB.

Buckle up

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pleasant noon time. 

[RentonHill]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wouldn’t be shocked if this thing over performs. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Eujunga said:

Hmm, a 30/27 day here with 2" of snow. Very close to what's modeled for this Wed/Thurs. Except that in 1995, it torched up to 72º a few days later.

That was a fun event. I lived in Sheridan then and had like 10".

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Coldest temps are in Nevada. Must be a torchy run. 

[Gummy]

15 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Precip is pretty much done by that point.  Most of it falls with 925mb temps in the -2 to -3 range.

Yea, the GFS and Euro are similar with the surface details, but the Euro is much colder at the 850 and 925 levels. It will be interesting to see which model is correct.

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Coldest temps are in Nevada. Must be a torchy run. 

SW stays cold the entire time. That BC cold slides down nicely from the north the last third of the run. High confidence. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Snowiest EPS too.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro looks snowy! WOW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Gummy said:

Yea, the GFS and Euro are similar with the surface details, but the Euro is much colder at the 850 and 925 levels. It will be interesting to see which model is correct.

GFS is an outlier on its ensemble suite around that time… fwiw 

[RentonHill]

Who's on the NAM???

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wouldn’t be shocked if this thing over performs. 

I'm very optimistic for the northern Willamette Valley in particular. Portland/Salem's time to shine!

[ShawniganLake]

5 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Euro looks snowy! WOW

Looks like a record breaking event for the coastlines from BC to California