Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
For my area we are under the slight for today. We will have an initial round of decaying storms this morning near sunrise, with CAMs showing some supercells popping off in the afternoon. There is little agreement on exactly where or when, other than that it will probably happen near or east of Tulsa. So I don't actually expect a lot of activity here today.
It looks like a better bet of dry line convection on Saturday afternoon, and this happens in a jacked out parameter space. Still a little early to try to guess exactly what this ends up looking like but the ceiling is high and I expect a moderate to come out on tomorrows outlook for Saturday. Saturday into Sunday either over or just east of me the initially discrete storms merge into a line of heavy rainfall so that is also in the potential mix.
It's worth noting that the rainfall forecasts from the NWS are dictated by WPC, not the local offices. Local offices can make changes to WPC for days 1-3 providing they can get their neighboring offices to agree to changes.
Additionally, its worth noting that WPC has a chronic high precip bias for amounts over 1" or so. So when you see big rainfall forecasts a few days out, it's probably going to diminish as it gets closer.
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