Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
Looks like SLE is still offline. The warministas finally got to it.
@SilverFallsAndrew might have to kiss the streak of cooler than average months there goodbye
My position was that it was too much cold and wet and that nature always seems to offset that with even more warm and dry. You can complain about that thinking and say it didn't used to be that way but that seems to be how it works now. And of course none of us control any of it and cold/wet fans take what they can get... but it felt to me like the payback was going to make some people angry.
Really like where the 12z GEFS goes in the long range. Would be nice if the Euro came around eventually.
This would also be a pretty “balanced” outcome after what would be about two weeks of warm and dry weather at that point. At least the modern type of balance that leaves us with slightly warmer and drier than average months on the whole, but not shockingly so.
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