SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon. The beat goes on. Here is the total precipitation for that entire event... This is in line with most previous GFS runs. The 12z was wetter down here, as are a lot of the GFS ensembles. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Weird that the low at PDX is being reported as 50 when there was an “hourly special” of 49. Yeah, I double and triple check it, but right now it is showing a low of 50. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Yeah, I double and triple check it, but right now it is showing a low of 50. Russian collusion. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Yeah, I double and triple check it, but right now it is showing a low of 50.I think Mueller needs to add this to his investigation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 In +ENSO winters w/ descending westerly shear, it can be a good sign (for the West) when there’s a strong early season Canadian cold/vortex pattern that reverses/develops blocking during the late autumn. This tendency was observed in every “good” +ENSO/Wrly downwell winter in the PNW since 1950. The blowtorch winters, however, kept the vortex over Greenland/Baffin Island through the month of November and sometimes into December, too. So November is a key month IMO. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 The beginning of September was warm here, now it's been consecutively running below normal. If there are no more 80's or mid 70's in the near future, may end up with a below normal month. The lows are really dragging down your departures. The average low in September at K-Falls is 40.7, though now that we are into the back half of the month the average low has dipped into the upper 30s. Still the 28 yesterday was a -11 departure on the low. Average high is still 76. Right now K-Falls is running a -2.3 departure for the month. Very likely you end up solidly below average. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Russian collusion.Great minds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon. The beat goes on. Here is the total precipitation for that entire event... Seems like the gfs is the outlier with the southern most track on Friday. Looks like it could be the first real fall like system, with a uniform widespread soaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Have to love the overall pattern on the 12z ECMWF. Lots of cold continental air pushing south. Hopefully we can see a similar pattern in November/December. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Have to love the overall pattern on the 12z ECMWF. Lots of cold continental air pushing south. Hopefully we can see a similar pattern in November/December. Next week looks gorgeous out here on this run... cool, dry, and sunny. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 NTP drift - should be fixedThe time issue? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 NTP drift - should be fixedDid you weld shut the Cascadia Subduction Zone??? 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Looking at the 12z EPS, I would guess it is wetter down here than the operational for Friday/Saturday. Jet is more suppressed. Beyond that, it is generally troughier than the operational through day 9, but slightly ridgier at day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 In other news, it is about as perfect a mid-September day as one could ever dream of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 In other news, it is about as perfect a mid-September day as one could ever dream of.Observations don't show mid 40s and heavy rain with a 40 mph wind right now down there... very strange. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Side note... the PDX observation shows a temp of 66 and dewpoint of 46 with some high clouds. I was mocked for saying those conditions were beautiful back in mid-April. In fact... Andrew said his wife said it was hot and humid on one such a day and I was wrong for saying it was pleasant. Now they want to move to Dallas. Another person described literally the exact same conditions in April as being "soupy" and miserable for a run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Observations don't show mid 40s and heavy rain with a 40 mph wind right now down there... very strange.Nope. Is that what it’s doing up there? You must keep in mind our climates are VERY different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Nope. Is that what it’s doing up there? You must keep in mind our climates are VERY different. No... its quite pleasant today. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 No... its quite pleasant today.So 110 with a DP of 80? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 So 110 with a DP of 80? No... but I have never expressed giddy excitement over that type of weather and it would be physically impossible here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Some areas in NC are approaching 40” of rain. #nothingburger #ItsWorseInTimsBackyard Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 No... but I have never expressed giddy excitement over that type of weather and it would be physically impossible here.Haha! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 It does indeed look like the posting time issue has been righted. Thank you Fred! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Some areas in NC are approaching 40” of rain. #nothingburger #ItsWorseInTimsBackyard Phil is really offended that it was raining harder here than at some of the reporters' locations that night. But it was. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Some areas in NC are approaching 40” of rain. #nothingburger #ItsWorseInTimsBackyardRain is a consummate blessing. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Rain is a consummate blessing. I bet every living soul in North Carolina is down on their knees thanking God for this bountiful blessing of live-giving nourishment. You can never, ever, ever have too much rain. True happiness would be perpetual rain for eternity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC_mV1IpjWA Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Rain is a consummate blessing. Leave my Tim alone! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Leave my Tim alone!He's a big boy. He can take it. You, not so much but you're getting better! You two keep getting ever so much snugglier in that pod! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 He's a big boy. He can take it. You, not so much but you're getting better! You two keep getting ever so much snugglier in that pod! Good lord Matt... You have gotten pretty goofy lately. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 12Z ECMWF definitely trending toward just drenching WA and southern BC with the Friday into Saturday system... amounts look pretty sparse in Oregon. The beat goes on. Here is the total precipitation for that entire event... Planning outdoor activities on Friday - can you tell what time the rain starts about? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 68 with some scenic high clouds here, after a low of 45. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Planning outdoor activities on Friday - can you tell what time the rain starts about? Per the 12Z ECMWF... it starts late morning on Friday and then Friday afternoon is very wet across all of western WA. Looks like we are in a post-frontal situation with a strong SW wind and a c-zone to the north by evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Good lord Matt... You have gotten pretty goofy lately.I don't know why you find the fact you two share a lot of similarities so goofy and offensive. Tim's a spaz but he's not a bad guy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 I don't know why you find the fact you two share a lot of similarities so goofy and offensive. Tim's a spaz but he's not a bad guy. You are trying too hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 You are trying too hard. Settle down. It's not that big of a deal. The 18z probably won't verify. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 18z looks a little wetter with the Friday/Saturday system than the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 18z looks a little wetter with the Friday/Saturday system than the Euro. Still a generally troughy run but also continues to be dry here. Guessing October will make up for it. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Still a generally troughy run but also continues to be dry here. Guessing October will make up for it. How much rain have you seen this month so far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Tonight’s looking chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Could be more model mayhem in the near future. The first half of October is looking intriguing for another hurricane or two..watching the Gulf/Carribean this time for at least one cyclone, plus a potential EPAC cyclone between the 25th and the 5th of October. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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