September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I'm declaring a moratorium on 12z Euro map posting.

[TT-SEA]

I'm declaring a moratorium on 12z Euro map posting.

 

Looks nice.   

 

Except Saturday is wet up here... per normal for 2018.   Saturday is by far the most common day of the week for rain this year.

[Deweydog]

Looks nice.

 

Except Saturday is wet up here... per normal for 2018. Saturday is by far the most common day of the week for rain this year.

Prove it.

[TT-SEA]

Prove it.

 

This was through mid-July. It has since rained on two of the four Saturdays in August... and two of three Saturdays in September so far.

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/what-luck-its-rained-on-nearly-every-saturday-in-seattle-since-the-start-of-april

 

The first day of the week is called "Sunday" but perhaps the final day of the week should change its name from "Saturday" to "Rainday"? At least in Seattle, it might not be a bad idea.

 

Believe it or not, it has rained at some point on 11 of the past 13 Saturdays in Seattle!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good to see all those chilly lows. 

[Deweydog]

This was through mid-July. It has since rained on two of the four Saturdays in August... and two of three Saturdays in September so far.

 

https://komonews.com/weather/scotts-weather-blog/what-luck-its-rained-on-nearly-every-saturday-in-seattle-since-the-start-of-april

 

The first day of the week is called "Sunday" but perhaps the final day of the week should change its name from "Saturday" to "Rainday"? At least in Seattle, it might not be a bad idea.

 

Believe it or not, it has rained at some point on 11 of the past 13 Saturdays in Seattle!

So the rain likes wine tastings, water skiing and farmer's markets? Lots of people do.

[Front Ranger]

There's definitely a noticeable difference from north to south across WA in late summer and early fall for precip intensity. It lessens as October goes along until things about even out towards the end of the month.

 

Take Clearbrook versus Battle Ground. Clearbrook averages 46.71" of precip annually while Battle Ground is wetter at 51.13". Yet in September, Clearbrook sees 2.98" on average to Battle Ground's 2.25". October has less of a disparity at 4.97" to Battle Ground's 4.47". And by November, Battle Ground is easily wetter again at 6.17" to 7.42".

 

Clearbrook is an extreme example, though. BLI only averages 1.77" in September. Everett averages just under 2".

 

But again, there is very little overall difference in Sep/Oct precip averages from Seattle down to Salem. The idea that early fall is increasingly wetter as you go north from Salem, which was being advertised, just isn't supported by the facts.

 

SLE

 

Sep: 1.53"

Oct: 3.21"

 

PDX

 

Sep: 1.53"

Oct: 3.06"

 

Downtown Portland (whole period of record)

 

Sep: 1.72"

Oct: 3.50"

 

SEA

 

Sep: 1.74"

Oct: 3.51"

 

Sand Point

 

Sep: 1.39"

Oct: 3.18"

 

Of course, there are wetter locations in both the Puget Sound region and Willamette Valley, but they are quite similar with early fall precip as well. 

[Front Ranger]

Fall has arrived in Barcelona! It was notably cooler today and cloudy with several periods of rain.

[Front Ranger]

So says my wife who needs a jacket to even step inside Safeway.   Most restaurants are annoyingly chilly as well.  

 

I will take annoyingly chilly over warm and muggy indoors. Ever been to a hot country where hardly any of the buildings have AC? It's awful.

[TT-SEA]

I will take annoyingly chilly over warm and muggy indoors. Ever been to a hot country where hardly any of the buildings have AC? It's awful.

We were in Paris during heat wave of August 2003.

[Jesse]

Well so much for a below average month.

[Farmboy]

I will take annoyingly chilly over warm and muggy indoors. Ever been to a hot country where hardly any of the buildings have AC? It's awful.

One man's annoyingly chilly is another's hypothermia-inducing conditions.

[TT-SEA]

Fall has arrived in Barcelona! It was notably cooler today and cloudy with several periods of rain.

 

 

I like their version of fall.   

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS turns warm after the weekend... and continues the idea of a warm west and cold east through the end of the run.   

 

Here is the 10-15 day period:

 

[Front Ranger]

Make that 36. Still 9/18/1988 for the last occurrence, however. 

 

Nice.

 

OLM hit 35, which looks like one of the colder temps this early since 1992. Not even close to a record, though...we're talking about a station that has hit 27 on 9/13!

[Front Ranger]

We were in Paris during heat wave of August 2003.

 

Killed more than 70,000 people across Europe. Annoying!

[BLI snowman]

Clearbrook is an extreme example, though. BLI only averages 1.77" in September. Everett averages just under 2".

 

But again, there is very little overall difference in Sep/Oct precip averages from Seattle down to Salem. The idea that early fall is increasingly wetter as you go north from Salem, which was being advertised, just isn't supported by the facts.

 

SLE

 

Sep: 1.53"

Oct: 3.21"

 

PDX

 

Sep: 1.53"

Oct: 3.06"

 

Downtown Portland (whole period of record)

 

Sep: 1.72"

Oct: 3.50"

 

SEA

 

Sep: 1.74"

Oct: 3.51"

 

Sand Point

 

Sep: 1.39"

Oct: 3.18"

 

Of course, there are wetter locations in both the Puget Sound region and Willamette Valley, but they are quite similar with early fall precip as well. 

 

Clearbrook is geographically comparable to Battle Ground. Both are nestled near the Cascade foothills and both benefit from upslope in westerly flow. Going further south into Oregon, you see even more of a difference. Stayton, also near the foothills, averages 52.49" annually which makes it wetter than both Battle Ground and Clearbrook. Yet averages only 2.00" in September and 4.18" in October. South of there at Dorena Dam you have a comparable 46.82" average with 1.63" in September and 3.76" in October.

 

The point is that there's a pretty observable N-S gradient to the storm track in the early fall as the Pacific jet starts to rev up. California is drier than Oregon, which is drier than Washington, which is drier than B.C. Not too complicated.

[Front Ranger]

I like their version of fall.   

 

 

You would not have been happy if you tried to go to the beach today and got caught in the massive downpour, though.

 

Fortunately, we did that yesterday...today was museums mainly, so it worked out.

[TT-SEA]

Killed more than 70,000 people across Europe. Annoying!

 

 

The Year Without Summer (1816) might have killed even more.   Cold and wet in the summer is REALLY annoying.  

[Front Ranger]

Clearbrook is geographically comparable to Battle Ground. Both are nestled near the Cascade foothills and both benefit from upslope in westerly flow. Going further south into Oregon, you see even more of a difference. Stayton, also near the foothills, averages 52.49" annually which makes it wetter than both Battle Ground and Clearbrook. Yet averages only 2.00" in September and 4.18" in October. South of there at Dorena Dam you have a comparable 46.82" average with 1.63" in September and 3.76" in October.

 

The point is that there's a pretty observable N-S gradient to the storm track in the early fall as the Pacific jet starts to rev up. California is drier than Oregon, which is drier than Washington, which is drier than B.C. Not too complicated.

 

Except there are a lot of places where the precip is very similar in both WA and OR.   Places that have similar annual precip. And where a lot of people live. Like Bellingham, Seattle, Portland, Salem...

 

What about the fact that Mollala, which averages 5" less rain a year than OLM, averages almost the exact same amount in September? Same with Oregon City.

 

Or the fact that Bremerton averages less precip in September than Mollala or Oregon City, despite averaging about the same annual precip?

[Farmboy]

The Year Without Summer (1816) might have killed even more.   Cold and wet in the summer is REALLY annoying.  

It's interesting how something like that could be so destructive back then, and now would be nothing more than an annoyance for most...

[BLI snowman]

Except there are a lot of places where the precip is very similar in both WA and OR.   Places that have similar annual precip. And where a lot of people live. Like Bellingham, Seattle, Portland, Salem...

 

What about the fact that Mollala, which averages 5" less rain a year than OLM, averages almost the exact same amount in September? Same with Oregon City.

 

Or the fact that Bremerton averages less precip in September than Mollala or Oregon City, despite averaging about the same annual precip?

 

I'm not sure that there are any spots in the Puget Sound region as close to the Cascades as Molalla is that average less precip than them in September-October.

 

Places like Buckley, Monroe, Arlington, and Sedro-Woolley all demonstrate that as well. All are wetter in the early fall. It stands to reason that the patterns that benefit places like Molalla on the east side of the valleys in the early fall will be even wetter on average at comparable places to the north. 

 

As usual, I'm not sure what you're even trying to argue. Do you actually disagree that the storm track has a noticeable latitudinal gradient at this point in the year, which was the gist of the Oregon folks' initial contention?

[TT-SEA]

It's interesting how something like that could be so destructive back then, and now would be nothing more than an annoyance for most...

 

 

Actually... I have read that it could be even worse now.    A global event like that could be a disaster for food production.  

 

http://www.socialviral.xyz/year-without-summer/

 

There are hundreds of active volcanoes, and no one can prevent the next eruption. If the events of 1816 were to occur today, the devastation would be enormous. Population growth has exploded in two centuries. The worlds of finance and trade are more interconnected than ever. A year without summer would kill hundreds of millions or people, and cause nations to descend into chaos. The rush for available food would lead to civil unrest and wars. It’s scary to think about, and maybe a good idea to stock up on on some canned food just in case.

[Front Ranger]

I'm not sure that there are any spots in the Puget Sound region as close to the Cascades as Molalla is that average less precip than them in September-October.

 

Places like Buckley, Monroe, Arlington, and Sedro-Woolley all demonstrate that as well. All are wetter in the early fall. It stands to reason that the patterns that benefit places like Molalla on the east side of the valleys in the early fall will be even wetter on average at comparable places to the north. 

 

As usual, I'm not sure what you're even trying to argue. Do you actually disagree that the storm track has a noticeable latitudinal gradient at this point in the year, which was the gist of the Oregon folks' initial contention?

 

I've just looked at the stats and don't see much evidence for a significant north/south precip gradient in early fall. You can find some locations that seem to support it, but overall it doesn't look like a widespread thing, and you can find just as many if not more comparisons that don't support it - as I've shown. Until you get down to around Eugene.

 

Sure, I can see the logic behind it, but the idea of a slowly sinking storm track for the PNW this time of year seems to be overestimated. Generally, when you start to get an active storm track pattern for periods in early fall, it affects most of the region similarly. 

 

What we've seen this month so far is atypical. 

 

[TT-SEA]

I've just looked at the stats and don't see much evidence for a significant north/south precip gradient in early fall. You can find some locations that seem to support it, but overall it doesn't look like a widespread thing, and you can find just as many if not more comparisons that don't support it - as I've shown.

 

Sure, I can see the logic behind it, but the idea of a slowly sinking storm track for the PNW this time of year seems to be overestimated. Generally, when you start to get an active storm track for periods in early fall, it affects most of the region similarly. 

 

What we've seen this month so far is atypical. 

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

 

All that map says to me is that we are good on rain up here and can enjoy the upcoming sunny, warm spell.  

[Farmboy]

Actually... I have read that it could be even worse now.    A global event like that could be a disaster for food production.  

 

http://www.socialviral.xyz/year-without-summer/

 

There are hundreds of active volcanoes, and no one can prevent the next eruption. If the events of 1816 were to occur today, the devastation would be enormous. Population growth has exploded in two centuries. The worlds of finance and trade are more interconnected than ever. A year without summer would kill hundreds of millions or people, and cause nations to descend into chaos. The rush for available food would lead to civil unrest and wars. It’s scary to think about, and maybe a good idea to stock up on on some canned food just in case.[/size]

It would surely be an epic moral conundrum for cold-summer enthusiasts!

[Front Ranger]

All that map says to me is that we are good on rain up here and can enjoy the upcoming sunny, warm spell.  

 

Smoke concerns should be minimal. Even with the sun angles, you'll still want to wear sunscreen between 11-3.

[James Jones]

Actually... I have read that it could be even worse now.    A global event like that could be a disaster for food production.  

 

http://www.socialviral.xyz/year-without-summer/

 

There are hundreds of active volcanoes, and no one can prevent the next eruption. If the events of 1816 were to occur today, the devastation would be enormous. Population growth has exploded in two centuries. The worlds of finance and trade are more interconnected than ever. A year without summer would kill hundreds of millions or people, and cause nations to descend into chaos. The rush for available food would lead to civil unrest and wars. It’s scary to think about, and maybe a good idea to stock up on on some canned food just in case.

 

Wow. What a scholarly and scientific article there.

 

I don't know if another 1816 would cause widespread food shortages in first world countries (I'm sure it would cause a lot of problems in poorer countries though) but that article is nothing but pure conjecture. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow. What a scholarly and scientific article there.

 

I don't know if another 1816 would cause widespread food shortages in first world countries (I'm sure it would cause a lot of problems in poorer countries though) but that article is nothing but pure conjecture. 

 

It would be a major problem for crops and food production.   And that would have ripple effects across the globe.  

[Front Ranger]

Wow. What a scholarly and scientific article there.

 

I don't know if another 1816 would cause widespread food shortages in first world countries (I'm sure it would cause a lot of problems in poorer countries though) but that article is nothing but pure conjecture. 

 

Probably sponsored by Big Canning.

[Jesse]

Wow. What a scholarly and scientific article there.

 

I don't know if another 1816 would cause widespread food shortages in first world countries (I'm sure it would cause a lot of problems in poorer countries though) but that article is nothing but pure conjecture.

I copy/paste stuff from wikipedia for the majority of my university research.

[TT-SEA]

I copy/paste stuff from wikipedia for the majority of my university research.

 

 

I am sure volcanic nuclear winter would not be any problem at all in today's world.

[Deweydog]

I've just looked at the stats and don't see much evidence for a significant north/south precip gradient in early fall. You can find some locations that seem to support it, but overall it doesn't look like a widespread thing, and you can find just as many if not more comparisons that don't support it - as I've shown. Until you get down to around Eugene.

 

Sure, I can see the logic behind it, but the idea of a slowly sinking storm track for the PNW this time of year seems to be overestimated. Generally, when you start to get an active storm track pattern for periods in early fall, it affects most of the region similarly.

 

What we've seen this month so far is atypical.

 

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

You're gonna give Tim a run for his money as the vacation posting top dog.

[Jesse]

I am sure volcanic nuclear winter would not be any problem at all in today's world.

It would take more than a couple volcanoes erupting to trigger such an event. Unless it was a massive one like the Yellowstone caldera. Odds are very low.

 

People who like cool summers sure are silly though. Lol!

[Farmboy]

Wow. What a scholarly and scientific article there.

 

I don't know if another 1816 would cause widespread food shortages in first world countries (I'm sure it would cause a lot of problems in poorer countries though) but that article is nothing but pure conjecture.

 

I highly doubt that genetically engineered crops have advanced to the degree that they're able to thrive in the types of conditions that existed in 1816.

[TT-SEA]

It would take more than a couple volcanoes erupting to trigger such an event. Unless it was a massive one like the Yellowstone caldera. Odds are very low.

 

People who like cool summers sure are silly though. Lol!

 

Another Tambora would do it.   It will happen... just a question of when.

 

And people who want it to be cold and wet in the summer are sort of silly.    Particularly in our climate.   

[James Jones]

It would be a major problem for crops and food production.   And that would have ripple effects across the globe.  

 

That's just a touch different than the claim that "hundreds of millions of people would die!!!!!!".

 

You initially said that you read an 1816 would be worse if it happened today and posted a totally worthless article to support that. I mean, I've also read the earth is flat...

 

Again, I don't know what the effects would be, but if I made a strong claim like that I would at least try to back it up with some actual evidence.

[Deweydog]

When did we shift from drought hysteria to volcanic hysteria?

[TT-SEA]

That's just a touch different than the claim that "hundreds of millions of people would die!!!!!!".

 

You initially said that you read an 1816 would be worse if it happened today and posted a totally worthless article to support that. I mean, I've also read the earth is flat...

 

Again, I don't know what the effects would be, but if I made a strong claim like that I would at least try to back it up with some actual evidence.

 

I know it would be more than just annoying if crops fail across the globe.   Don't want to find out what would really happen.     

[wx_statman]

Nice.

 

OLM hit 35, which looks like one of the colder temps this early since 1992. Not even close to a record, though...we're talking about a station that has hit 27 on 9/13!

 

It is known as the Station of the Gods, after all.