September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

42!

[Geos]

Lots of low clouds out here. 

 

Perfectly clear here. 

[Jesse]

Yesterday on the Skyline Trail at Mount Rainier.  It rained and snowed the night before, with sticking snow above about 6,000' (a dusting).  Skies were mainly clear with temps in the 20s when I woke up.  Peak fall colors look about 2 weeks away.  It was awesome seeing Rainier, Mt. Hood, Adams and St. Helens covered in snow again.

 

You captured all four there too. Very nice.

[TT-SEA]

Perfectly clear here.

Just cleared here now... low clouds still pushed up against Cascades.

[Geos]

Coldest reading I found was in Marysville at 36!

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWAMARYS19&cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

[Jesse]

43 for a low here.

[TT-SEA]

00Z EPS builds in the ridging around day 6 and 7 and is fully on board with a warm west and cold east scenario for the rest of the run...

 

[Blizzard777]

42* here as well

[Jesse]

Been awhile since we’ve seen a lot of map posts around here. The times must be changin again.

[Esquimalt]

NAM places the Friday low so that it virtually completely misses Victoria. Terrible outcome

[TT-SEA]

Been awhile since we’ve seen a lot of map posts around here. The times must be changin again.

 

 

Feels like we might be turning the corner finally.   Maybe.   Don't trust it yet.   

 

I lose interest in posting maps when everything just becomes deep troughing as the time approaches.   I might be more inclined to post deep troughing model solutions starting in about 6 weeks when deep troughing and cold becomes a better option than endless warm rain which is usually the result of anything other than deep troughing.  

[TT-SEA]

Perfectly clear here. 

 

 

Looks like it has now flipped... totally sunny out here and cloudy in the Seattle area.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A few 30s in the Willamette Valley. Nice to see in September for once. 

[Phil]

[Phil]

00Z EPS builds in the ridging around day 6 and 7 and is fully on board with a warm west and cold east scenario for the rest of the run...

 

This pattern change has been delayed a lot recently, though. And the positive tilt of the trough anomaly on the ensembles is often a sign that there might be transience/variability (at least at first).

 

Feels like one of those years where the Bermuda High will fight to the end.

[Phil]

So here is what I can gather from the long range stuff starting to make its rounds

- persistent ridging in the west

- cold seems to make a bee-line for the east consistently

- the best hope for the west when it comes to cold is zonal gone bad

 

Please tell me I am wrong.

You moving back west definitely increases odds of a cold winter here. We’d had multiple frigid winters until the year you arrived, then we had three consecutive warmer than average winters while you lived here.

 

I bet we flip back cold now, lol.

[Jesse]

So here is what I can gather from the long range stuff starting to make its rounds

- persistent ridging in the west

- cold seems to make a bee-line for the east consistently

- the best hope for the west when it comes to cold is zonal gone bad

 

Please tell me I am wrong.

I don’t think it seems that bad.

[TT-SEA]

No longer need rain up here... stretches of dry weather is the only thing that interests me again at this point. Rain just means being inside. Until we get to snow and cold opportunities.

[Phil]

I don’t think it seems that bad.

That’s because it’s not going to be that bad.

[James Jones]

Beautiful clear and chilly morning, got down to about 45. Perfect kind of early fall day looks to be on tap.

[Farmboy]

Looks like a blast of colder air on the way after day 10 on 12z gfs...

[ShawniganLake]

41F again this morning. I did see a couple upper 30’s on southern Vancouver Island

[wx_statman]

At least 37 @ EUG this morning. Earliest since 9/18/1988 down there. 

[Jesse]

That’s because it’s not going to be that bad.

Would be nice if the really amplified ridging stayed offshore. 12z GFS seems to be leaning that way.

 

Whatever the case, right now models don’t seem to be delivering us a ridgy pattern via a large scale retrograde. The ridgiest long range runs have actually been progressive, moving the high offshore heights we have had for awhile inland.

[Jesse]

At least 37 @ EUG this morning. Earliest since 9/18/1988 down there.

Now there’s an analog we can all get behind.

 

Pretty crazy that PDX probably don’t even fall below 50, considering the widespread lows in the upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking like a beautiful day out there with no clouds and the trees changing color. They are gorgeous on this college campus.

[Jesse]

Outlier?

 

[Deweydog]

Typically PDX is one of the colder spots. Weird.

[wx_statman]

Outlier?

 

A75662A5-4D0A-4414-8116-98387D2B45AA.jpeg

 

We never lost the light drift off the warm Columbia waters. #screwed #notjustuhi #notfair

[wx_statman]

At least 37 @ EUG this morning. Earliest since 9/18/1988 down there. 

 

Make that 36. Still 9/18/1988 for the last occurrence, however. 

[ShawniganLake]

Now there’s an analog we can all get behind.

 

Pretty crazy that PDX probably don’t even fall below 50, considering the widespread lows in the upper 30s/low 40s elsewhere.

I remember a couple inches of miraculous Christmas Eve snow that winter. I vaguely remember being pretty excited.

[Jesse]

We never lost the light drift off the warm Columbia waters. #screwed #notjustuhi #notfair

Makes sense. The NNW wind didn’t die there until right before dawn.

 

How warm is the Columbia running right now?

[Deweydog]

The low was actually 50 too. Not 52.

[Winterdog]

36.6 this morning here.  Didn't cloud up at all overnight.  Beautiful day ahead.

[wx_statman]

Makes sense. The NNW wind didn’t die there until right before dawn.

 

How warm is the Columbia running right now?

 

66 at Bonneville Dam. Definitely on the way down from the low 70's in August. But, still plenty of warmth to advect onto our favorite official sensor! 

[Jesse]

Another perfect early fall day.

[BLI snowman]

The low was actually 50 too. Not 52.

 

Chili. 

[BLI snowman]

66 at Bonneville Dam. Definitely on the way down from the low 70's in August. But, still plenty of warmth to advect onto our favorite official sensor! 

 

Would be nice to see it down to 31 or so by mid January.

[Deweydog]

Chili.

Haha! That's food that makes you farty and bloaty.

[wx_statman]

Would be nice to see it down to 31 or so by mid January.

 

I'll take 32. I'm not picky.