September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z GEM and GFS both look cool for the foreseeable future. They both show a nice trough dig in a little over a week from now.

 

[TT-SEA]

I can't even imagine how Tim would deal with November/December 1996. He would also have been buried with massive amounts of snow at various points.

Rain every day is rain every day. Happens all the time here.

 

We had like 10 dry days out of 105 days to start 2018. I dealt with it but its depressing... and we escaped to Hawaii and Palm Springs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim constantly laments the precip surplus of the last few years but for a lot of places they really don't compare with 1995-99 (when he was in California). The floodgates opened up almost overnight in late October 1994 and never really closed off for a solid 4-5 years. 1996 was easily our wettest calendar year of the 20th century in NW OR and SW WA.

 

A few local totals from that year.

 

Silverton: 77.21"

Eugene:  72.48"

Salem:     66.96"

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Starting to feel a bit positive about the upcoming winter if we can hang onto the positive neutral ENSO and near neutral PDO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Unfortunately George Taylor was wrong, and then sadly for him he was terminated as state climatologist for his denier status on climate change. The 20 years following the mid-90s were certainly not cooler than the previous 20 years...

[Deweydog]

Starting to feel a bit positive about the upcoming winter if we can hang onto the positive neutral ENSO and near neutral PDO.

A poor man's 2003-04 seems on the table.

[Phil]

I think the talk was that it was related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reversal in the mid 1990s.

The NATL ITCZ/z-cell seasonality reversed its anomaly during the summer of 1994. As you said, the flip was almost instantaneous..it only took a month to transition across the NATL/IO, and then it stayed in that positive mode for the next two decades without relent. Only now does it appear to be flipping back the other way (seemed to take off after that SSW last February).

[BLI snowman]

Jesse's Stuart Smalley costume got absolutely destroyed by the rains of 10-31-94.

 

I heard he was Barney that year.

[BLI snowman]

Starting to feel a bit positive about the upcoming winter if we can hang onto the positive neutral ENSO and near neutral PDO.

 

Positive neutral ENSO has always been pretty good for us. 2003-04 was our last one, and then 1993-94, 1992-93, 1990-91, and 1989-90 before that. More well formed weak El Ninos like 2014-15 and 2004-05 can suck major balls, so it's a fine line.

[Jesse]

I heard he was Barney that year.

I can’t remember what exactly I dressed up as, but I do recall that was the one Halloween we trick or treated in the Vancouver Mall. It was lame.

[TT-SEA]

I can't even imagine how Tim would deal with November/December 1996. He would also have been buried with massive amounts of snow at various points.

 

 

Just looked it up... we had 14 dry days in November/December 1996 here.

 

We had only 12 dry days from January through mid-April this year... a span of 3.5 months.    And snow on numerous occasions including in early April.    

[BLI snowman]

I can’t remember what exactly I dressed up as, but I do recall that was the one Halloween we trick or treated in the Vancouver Mall. It was lame.

 

An older you would have been more appreciative. As I recall it snowed down to about 700' late that night.

[Deweydog]

An older you would have been more appreciative. As I recall it snowed down to about 700' late that night.

It snowed for reals about five weeks later!

[Jesse]

An older you would have been more appreciative. As I recall it snowed down to about 700' late that night.

Yeah, I was only 8 then. Hasn’t quite caught the bug yet. That didn’t start in earnest until the late 90s.

 

December 1998 is much more vivid. Lots of outdoor water freezing experiments!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, I was only 8 then. Hasn’t quite caught the bug yet. That didn’t start in earnest until the late 90s.

 

December 1998 is much more vivid. Lots of outdoor water freezing experiments!

 

That was a fun one.  Small part of the central and south valley had an inch snowfall with temps at like 17F, at least that's what I recall when I saw the rivers frozen as a kid in 8th grade. If only that blast had a more robust surface low to the south...

[BLI snowman]

It snowed for reals about five weeks later!

 

Stealthily chilly November that year too. Haven't had a colder one since.

[Deweydog]

Stealthily chilly November that year too. Haven't had a colder one since.

Had some DANGEROUSLY low snow levels the day after Thanksgiving. My dad and I hit some snow on Neahkanie Mt. that afternoon. Bigger surprise than a post-turkey day case of trichinosis.

[Deweydog]

Euro alert!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Any idea what is going on with the grass here? My GF has 3 of these in her backyard, all with holes in the middle. Grass growing like crazy in a ring with all the grass around it looking normal.

[ShawniganLake]

Any idea what is going on with the grass here? My GF has 3 of these in her backyard, all with holes in the middle. Grass growing like crazy in a ring with all the grass around it looking normal.

Does she have underground sprinklers?

[Deweydog]

Any idea what is going on with the grass here? My GF has 3 of these in her backyard, all with holes in the middle. Grass growing like crazy in a ring with all the grass around it looking normal.

Sprinkler head.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sprinkler head.

 

This isn't where the sprinkler head is, the grass has never grown like that around any of the sprinkler heads to my knowledge.

[Jesse]

Sprinkler head.

 

What is the name of the Deep Purple cover band you played bass for in Highschool, Alex.

[Deweydog]

This isn't where the sprinkler head is, the grass has never grown like that around any of the sprinkler heads to my knowledge.

Looks just like a sprinkler head which has ended up below grade. Gonna have to go subterranean and investigate!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks just like a sprinkler head which has ended up below grade. Gonna have to go subterranean and investigate!

Once these stitches heal up I have a lot of work to do in the yard. Gotta spread out a lot of bark dust before the winter amongst numerous other tasks.

[snow_wizard]

The 00z GEM and GFS both look cool for the foreseeable future. They both show a nice trough dig in a little over a week from now.

 

 

Really nice looking pattern.  Liking the GOA ridging and the big ridge over the Eastern US.  I really like our chances for a couple of big cold snaps in the Oct through Dec period.

[snow_wizard]

Looking like we have a pretty good cluster of ensemble members going for a chilly solution early next week.  Bring it on!

 

Already down to 49 here tonight.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really nice looking pattern. Liking the GOA ridging and the big ridge over the Eastern US. I really like our chances for a couple of big cold snaps in the Oct through Dec period.

I feel like a troughy September leads to elevated chances of the goodies later on. Esp from Nov-the first couple weeks of Jan

[snow_wizard]

I feel like a troughy September leads to elevated chances of the goodies later on. Esp from Nov-the first couple weeks of Jan

 

Years where September crashes after a hot August are often good for a big December cold wave.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like there was a report of a funnel in the Seattle area with a decent cell showing off a rotational hook. I’m glad we ignored that for soggy discussion and how Washington is turkey a horrible place for wine.

Saw that on the news last night... looked like the real deal.

[Front Ranger]

Warm and sticky in Barcelona.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cool morning in the Willamette Valley with lows in the low-mid 40s. PDX sitting at an hourly reading of 50 so we'll see if they hit the 40s. 41 up here and mostly clear. 

[TT-SEA]

Today should be the first day since September 6th with no rain here. Over 5 inches on the month now... normal for the entire month is just under 4.5 inches.

[Blizzard777]

1.84 inches of rain for the month my location

 

Got down to 46 here and currently 49 with some blue skies poking through

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.94" on the month here. Average is just under 3", so its possible we hit average if next weekend trends wetter. We've had measurable precip on 5 days so far I believe. Down here this has pretty much been the perfect September. The first half of this week looks really nice with mostly dry coolish weather. 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I was only 8 then. Hasn’t quite caught the bug yet. That didn’t start in earnest until the late 90s.

 

December 1998 is much more vivid. Lots of outdoor water freezing experiments!

 

Yeah, me and a friend literally created a skating rink in a parking lot with that. Totally made up for the lack of snow.

[TT-SEA]

0.94" on the month here. Average is just under 3", so its possible we hit average if next weekend trends wetter. We've had measurable precip on 5 days so far I believe. Down here this has pretty much been the perfect September. The first half of this week looks really nice with mostly dry coolish weather. 

 

 

We both have roughly the same annual rainfall average... and yet I have had more than 5 times as much rain as you this month.   

 

Sounds like its been very different up here huh?

[Geos]

Today should be the first day since September 6th with no rain here. Over 5 inches on the month now... normal for the entire month is just under 4.5 inches.

 

Wow, you're drenched out there. Only 1.28" here. Really dewy this morning and kind of cloudy. Low 48.

[TT-SEA]

Wow, you're drenched out there. Only 1.28" here. Really dewy this morning and kind of cloudy. Low 48.

 

 

Yeah... the Seattle area has been shadowed pretty good this month.

 

But even Federal way has received twice as much rain as Andrew this month... and that area probably averages less than half of Andrew's annual average.