September 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

When did we shift from drought hysteria to volcanic hysteria?

Difference being there was actually an historic drought that has had some negative consequences.

 

I also don’t think anyone claimed millions would die of starvation because of a local drought. But you can continue right along with the false equivalency. Seems to be your schtick lately.

[Deweydog]

Difference being there was actually an historic drought that has had some negative consequences.

 

I also don’t think anyone claimed millions would die of starvation because of a local drought. But you can continue right along with the false equivalency. Seems to be your schtick lately.

Edits!!!

[Jesse]

Edits!!!

Thank god for that. Things got dangerously close to you possibly having to make a legit reply!!

[Phil]

It would take more than a couple volcanoes erupting to trigger such an event. Unless it was a massive one like the Yellowstone caldera. Odds are very low.

 

People who like cool summers sure are silly though. Lol!

It’s all relative, though. The warmer climate and CO^2 increase has been hugely beneficial to agriculture/food production, which has allowed the human population to explode.

 

Cool the globe by 1.5C - 2C or more, even briefly, and there could be serious problems in developing nations, depending on where the coldest airmasses end up. Tens of millions of people (possibly hundreds of millions) could die. And the present regime of circulation (which focuses cold air across NE-Canada/NATL) is a risky one to have during a global cooling spell.

[Jesse]

It’s all relative, though. The warmer climate and CO^2 increase has been hugely beneficial to agriculture/food production, which has allowed the human population to explode.

 

Cool the globe by 1.5C - 2C or more, even briefly, and there could be serious problems in developing nations, depending on where the coldest airmasses end up. Tens of millions of people (possibly hundreds of millions) could die.

Good thing we probably won’t stop warming for at least the next few centuries. Unless a one in a million super volcano erupts. In that case my shelves are stocked with contest grading kits to pass the time until grim death arrives.

[Deweydog]

Thank god for that. Things got dangerously close to you possibly having to make a legit reply.

Good lord...

 

It was a joke. The drought concern, at least locally, has turned a bit melodramatic. Hell, if you can't Jim onboard with it that should tell you something. If it were Tim trumping up the macabre aspects of a wet, floody winter you'd be first in line to do a little poky funny fun fun time posting. Don't play so sanctimonious all of the sudden. You HAD been doing better with that.

 

Edit: I thought of something else but now I can't remember what it was. Maybe it was 18z related...

[Phil]

Good thing we probably won’t stop steadily warming for at least the next few centuries. Unless a one in a million super volcano erupts. My shelves are stocked with contest grading kits to pass the time until grim death arrives.

People like us (in well-developed middle latitude countries) would probably be fine. Food would be more expensive, but that’s about it. Canada/Russia might have more issues.

 

But the majority of the human population resides in developing/under-developed countries. The risk for them is much higher.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm not sure that there are any spots in the Puget Sound region as close to the Cascades as Molalla is that average less precip than them in September-October.

 

Places like Buckley, Monroe, Arlington, and Sedro-Woolley all demonstrate that as well. All are wetter in the early fall. It stands to reason that the patterns that benefit places like Molalla on the east side of the valleys in the early fall will be even wetter on average at comparable places to the north. 

 

As usual, I'm not sure what you're even trying to argue. Do you actually disagree that the storm track has a noticeable latitudinal gradient at this point in the year, which was the gist of the Oregon folks' initial contention?

 

He is arguing against PNW climatology 101 type stuff...

[Jesse]

Good lord...

 

It was a joke. The drought concern, at least locally, has turned a bit melodramatic. Hell, if you can't Jim onboard with it that should tell you something. If it were Tim trumping up the macabre aspects of a wet, floody winter you'd be first in line to do a little poky funny fun fun time posting. Don't play so sanctimonious all of the sudden. You HAD been doing better with that.

 

Edit: I thought of something else but now I can't remember what it was. Maybe it was 18z related...

This definitely comes off a little sanctimonious.

 

But yeah Jim has long been a pillar of reason here. Missed the boat on that one.

[TT-SEA]

Good lord...

 

It was a joke. The drought concern, at least locally, has turned a bit melodramatic. Hell, if you can't Jim onboard with it that should tell you something. If it were Tim trumping up the macabre aspects of a wet, floody winter you'd be first in line to do a little poky funny fun fun time posting. Don't play so sanctimonious all of the sudden. You HAD been doing better with that.

 

Edit: I thought of something else but now I can't remember what it was. Maybe it was 18z related...

Jim says its been wet and "ugly" lately.

 

Definitely not worrying about drought.

[Front Ranger]

You're gonna give Tim a run for his money as the vacation posting top dog.

 

That's the idea. 

 

Quiet night on a busy trip.

[Deweydog]

This definitely comes off a little sanctimonious.

 

But yeah Jim has long been a pillar of reason here. Missed the boat on that one.

I'm gonna make fun of people either way. Everyone knows that.

 

And ouch, sorry Jim.

[Front Ranger]

He is arguing against PNW climatology 101 type stuff...

 

Nah. Just because something is repeated doesn't make it true. I do my own research if I'm curious about something and don't accept everything at face value.

 

Sorry for looking into it and posting stats? 

[Phil]

The fact is, the human population has been spoiled by a climate that has been gradually warming/moistening for several centuries now. Mother Nature has been “on our team” for the majority of the last 300 years, in a sense. The climate has been relatively stable, from a spatial standpoint, since the middle of the 20th century.

 

This warming (which began well before the Industrial Revolution) was triggered by something. And it was quite significant, given the required perturbation of the energy budget to produce such changes. Should that trigger reverse or cease to be (as these things tend to do), we could have some serious problems on our hands, even when accounting for cumulative radiative forcings from GHGes since 1950. Throw in a large volcanic eruption or two, and our hubris re: future climate changes will look pretty stupid.

[Farmboy]

It would take more than a couple volcanoes erupting to trigger such an event. Unless it was a massive one like the Yellowstone caldera. Odds are very low.

 

People who like cool summers sure are silly though. Lol!

 

Glad to hear you're finally getting it!

[Deweydog]

The fact is, the human population has been spoiled by a climate that has been gradually warming/moistening for several centuries now. Mother Nature has been “on our team” for the majority of the last 300 years, in a sense. The climate has been relatively stable, from a spatial standpoint, since the middle of the 20th century.

 

This warming (which began well before the Industrial Revolution) was triggered by something. And it was quite significant, given the required perturbation of the energy budget to produce such changes. Should that trigger reverse or cease to be (as these things tend to do), we could have some serious problems on our hands, even when accounting for cumulative radiative forcings fron GHGes since 1950. Throw in a large volcanic eruption or two, and our hubris re: future climate changes will look pretty stupid.

With any luck we'll just keep warming like a mofo. Sounds like anything else would be tragic.

[Phil]

Nice.

 

OLM hit 35, which looks like one of the colder temps this early since 1992. Not even close to a record, though...we're talking about a station that has hit 27 on 9/13!

FWIW, 1992 is the last time the NH 500mb -40C isotherm manifested this early in the season (earliest occurrence in recorded history this year. The cold and snow cover extent across the WHEM high latitudes has been pretty incredible this month.

[James Jones]

Good lord...

 

It was a joke. The drought concern, at least locally, has turned a bit melodramatic. Hell, if you can't Jim onboard with it that should tell you something. If it were Tim trumping up the macabre aspects of a wet, floody winter you'd be first in line to do a little poky funny fun fun time posting. Don't play so sanctimonious all of the sudden. You HAD been doing better with that.

 

Edit: I thought of something else but now I can't remember what it was. Maybe it was 18z related...

 

I think more than anything it says that Jim sees everything through the lens of what it could mean for cold and snow come winter. He's an entertaining and knowledgeable guy for sure but his desire for cold weather clouds his objectivity, it seems like he's been implying that a flip to long term cold anomalies is right around the corner for as long as I've been reading this forum. No matter what the conditions look like he can find some combination of indices and historical pattern progressions that look favorable.

[Phil]

With any luck we'll just keep warming like a mofo. Sounds like anything else would be tragic.

What is the purpose of this post? Useless.

 

Ideally, it would be best to maintain the current temperature or slowly warm another fraction of a degree.

[Deweydog]

What is the purpose of this post? Useless.

 

Ideally, it would be best to maintain the current temperature or slowly warm another fraction of a degree.

It was a sensationalist response to a somewhat sensationalist post. What seems most likely is what you just said. Slow warming, barring some sort of cataclysmic intervention.

 

We're also due for a massive earthquake/tsunami combo here...

[Jesse]

I'm gonna make fun of people either way. Everyone knows that.

 

And ouch, sorry Jim.

Meh, you’ve been swinging pretty hard in one direction lately. Although to be fair, I have noticed that you often tend to target whatever “side” is complaining most vocally about the meteorological status quo. Unless of course it is a status quo you yourself dislike, such as a long, wet spring.

 

I love Jim. I think he is mostly dismissive of the drought situation because it hasn’t been quite as bad up there, and he probably sees the extreme dryness as a sign of something awesome this winter.

[Deweydog]

I think more than anything it says that Jim sees everything through the lens of what it could mean for cold and snow come winter. He's an entertaining and knowledgeable guy for sure but his desire for cold weather clouds his objectivity, it seems like he's been implying that a flip to long term cold anomalies is right around the corner for as long as I've been reading this forum. No matter what the conditions look like he can find some combination of indices and historical pattern progressions that look favorable.

Jim hasn't been too big on long term stuff since "regime change" was the forum catch phrase of choice back in the 2005-2008ish range. That said, his seasonal forecasting methods are pretty shaky no doubt.

 

Jim just opined that he's not all that concerned about our preceding dry months. Seems pretty rational given the fact it can and likely will turn around in a hurry this time of year. If exceptionally dry conditions continue into next spring, then I think some hardcore anxiety could be the way to go.

[Phil]

It was a sensationalist response to a somewhat sensationalist post. What seems most likely is what you just said. Slow warming, barring some sort of cataclysmic intervention.

 

We're also due for a massive earthquake/tsunami combo here...

Nothing sensational about it. I’m just conveying the reality of the situation. This slowly warming, mild-mannered climate we’ve come to know and love has historically been the fickle exception, not the rule. And no amount of cognitive dissonance and intellectual hand waving is going to change that unfortunate reality.

[Deweydog]

Nothing sensational about it. I’m just conveying the reality of the situation. This slowly warming, mild-mannered climate we’ve come to know and love has historically been the exception, not the rule. And no amount of cognitive dissonance is going to change that.

It's just kind of a no thing, I guess. Obviously if we see some sudden shift toward an ice age or some climate-cooling planetary calamity occurs it's gonna bring about some chaos. Especially considering the current chaos mongers are all oriented toward warmer and/or drier.

[El_Nina]

Got down to 39 this morning.

[Jesse]

71/43 here with morning clouds and afternoon sun. Nice day.

[Kayla]

69/36 here today with no activity of the super volcano erupting in my backyard. 

[Jesse]

69/36 here today with no activity of the super volcano erupting in my backyard.

Bozeman’s explosive urban sprawl is probably a much larger threat to the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem than the supervolcano, at least in the near term.

[Kayla]

Bozeman’s explosive urban sprawl is probably a much larger threat to the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem than the supervolcano, at least in the near term.

 

Ughhh I sure hope not. Will be interesting to see if the migration patterns change at all this fall.

[Jesse]

Ughhh I sure hope not. Will be interesting to see if the migration patterns change at all this fall.

I follow a page on Facebook called Mountain Journal and they have had some good articles on it recently. There has been a push to leave wildlife corridors open but it’s been a tough battle with the recent surge of human population in the Gallatin Valley.

[Kayla]

I follow a page on Facebook called Mountain Journal and they have had some good articles on it recently. There has been a push to leave wildlife corridors open but it’s been a tough battle with the recent surge of human population in the Gallatin Valley.

 

Yeah open space is really big here and the GVLT (Gallatin Valley Land Trust) has really led the charge in maintaining that. We live literally right between two migration routes that I really hope never gets developed in my lifetime. 

[Jesse]

Yeah open space is really big here and the GVLT (Gallatin Valley Land Trust) has really led the charge in maintaining that. We live literally right between two migration routes that I really hope never gets developed in my lifetime.

That’s awesome. Migration for elk or other animals too?

 

Private organizations like that can really make a positive impact. I have volunteered with the Columbia Land Trust, locally. They do great things as well, in terms of preserving important habitat and open space.

[Geos]

The low of 35 in Olympia this morning was the earliest low of that degree since 1992! Shelton at 35 also hasn't seen a low that cold this early since 1999.

 

Made it to 64 here today with mostly sunny skies. 

[Geos]

18z GFS trimmed the rain back even further from here on south.

 

 

CMC was a bit wetter.

 

 

I'm ready for a good ol' autumn wind storm. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I keep hearing 1992-93 thrown around a bunch lately.  I'll take that action as an analog.

[Kayla]

That’s awesome. Migration for elk or other animals too?

 

Private organizations like that can really make a positive impact. I have volunteered with the Columbia Land Trust, locally. They do great things as well, in terms of preserving important habitat and open space.

 

Yeah mainly elk but some moose as well.

 

That's great! We're really fortunate to have such a great organization with widespread community support advocating for preserving our open space.

[MossMan]

Pulled the jetski out of the water for the season. Guaranteed to be nice through October now! Keeping the boat in for a little longer however so I’m not giving up all hope yet!

[TT-SEA]

Good job Randy... we all need to do what is necessary to bring back nice weather.   Books reservations... pull out jet skis... etc.    Whatever it takes!  

[Jesse]

Good job Randy... we all need to do what is necessary to bring back nice weather. Books reservations... pull out jet skis... etc. Whatever it takes!

Haha! It’s only been cool and rainy at times for like 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

Haha! It’s only been cool and rainy at times for like 10 days.

 

10 consecutive days!   Highlighting one of the annoying aspects of our climate.     

 

A streak of 10 days or more has happened just 3 times in history in Washington DC... once in 1873.    The all-time record was set in May 2016 with 13 days.    13 days?