November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

Light rain and 46 currently. Everyone ready to go back to work tomorrow and multitask with model riding?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I love hubris. Roasted red pepper is the best flavor.

 

I knew you would appreciate the unsolicited rant.

[BLI snowman]

Wait, those areas did experience a nasty windstorm in April of 2017. So the weather-excitement drought has been since April of 2017, not March.

 

The Portland area actually hasn't had any exciting weather event since January 21, 1943, a date where we had a fairly okay snowfall. 

 

Hopefully the streak ends this winter but it looks like Minot is going to steal our cold again so that's lame.

[MossMan]

Wasn't really that nasty. We tied everything down and didn't have any gusts strong enough to blow even the patio furniture around.

So that wasn’t your patio furniture that blew into Matt’s yard?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Light rain and 46 currently. Everyone ready to go back to work tomorrow and multitask with model riding?

 

Your telling me. Actually catching up on some work this evening so already getting into the flow of the week. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So that wasn’t your patio furniture that blew into Matt’s yard?

 

A lot of action happened on that patio swing.

[Requiem]

The Portland area actually hasn't had any exciting weather event since January 21, 1943, a date where we had a fairly okay snowfall. 

 

Hopefully the streak ends this winter but it looks like Minot is going to steal our cold again so that's lame.

 

Excuse me, that's just incorrect. Please review the records, Portland hasn't had any exciting weather since 1880, when we had that minor bluster in January. No event has managed to break our streak in the years since, but maybe this will be the year.

[Timmy Supercell]

Hail the size baseballs in August 10 1961 in Klamath Falls, think it smashed some windows.

Ever since that evening not the darndest ever thing in this here chicken town.

[Blizzard777]

At this point it just feels like the cold will always slide east in this new climate.

We will never fit in

[Deweydog]

It's November 25th.

[Bryant]

It's November 25th.

Less than 6 hours from being the 26th! Seems like winter is pretty much over by these comments on here

[Deweydog]

Less than 6 hours from being the 26th! Seems like winter is pretty much over by these comments on here

Front loaded winters mean front loaded anxiety.

[Esquimalt]

Hail the size baseballs in August 10 1961 in Klamath Falls, think it smashed some windows.

Ever since that evening not the darndest ever thing in this here chicken town.

August 10th is my birthday, that would have been one awesome way to celebrate!

[van city]

[Deweydog]

In all honesty it's been all quiet on the western front since 7-10-08.

[Front Ranger]

I knew you would appreciate the unsolicited rant.

 

Is there any other kind? 

[Deweydog]

Is there any other kind?

Grave danger?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20181125_184342.jpg

 

Wow! The 2nd map looks like a continuation of November, with a bit colder weather out here, likely due to inversions.

[Kayla]

PV is also looking likely to weaken a lot heading into next week. Could be what the models are catching onto heading into week two.

[Front Ranger]

PV is also looking likely to weaken a lot heading into next week. Could be what the models are catching onto heading into week two.

 

The AO has already been tanked most this month. Any fears of a roided up PV have been overblown.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

PV is also looking likely to weaken a lot heading into next week. Could be what the models are catching onto heading into week two.

 

Correct, and it appears it will be dumping the Arctic air to the east.

[Phil]

The AO has already been tanked most this month. Any fears of a roided up PV have been overblown.

A ‘roided-up PV affects the system state in multiple ways.

 

This includes the MJO/tropics and efficiency/longevity of wavecycles/blocking highs. These all play roles in PNW weather/climate tendencies.

[MossMan]

Correct, and it appears it will be dumping the Arctic air to the east.

Leaving us in...?

[Kayla]

The AO has already been tanked most this month. Any fears of a roided up PV have been overblown.

 

Yeah...and it looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

[Front Ranger]

A ‘roided-up PV affects the system state in multiple ways.

 

This includes the MJO/tropics and efficiency/longevity of wavecycles/blocking highs. These all play roles in PNW weather/climate tendencies.

 

The blocking highs have been pretty good at delivering cold to the CONUS so far! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Leaving us in...?

 

Fake cold doldrums.

[Kayla]

Correct, and it appears it will be dumping the Arctic air to the east.

 

For now...

[Kayla]

The blocking highs have been pretty good at delivering cold to the CONUS so far! 

 

EPO also looks to tank as we head into December. Blocky fall meet blocky winter!

[Phil]

In Flatiron’s world it’s EPO or bust. Nothing else matters. The PV (aka: the cold air production system) is somehow irrelevant.

 

Forget about the fact it’s the wave-1 structure itself that acts as the -EPO conduit.

[MossMan]

Fake cold doldrums.

I think we will be entering a period of great potential, exciting times ahead!!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In Flatiron’s world it’s EPO or bust. Nothing else matters. The PV (aka: the cold air production system) is somehow irrelevant.

 

Forget about the fact it’s the wave-1 structure itself that acts as the -EPO conduit.

 

Here we go...

 

I think we will be entering a period of great potential, exciting times ahead!!

 

I sure as hell hope so!!

[Phil]

I suppose -EPO blocks randomly pop up out of nowhere for no reason at all. They’re definitely not produced via external modulation of waves’ phase speeds.

[Phil]

Here we go...

I’m sure he can take a joke.

[MossMan]

I suppose -EPO blocks randomly pop up out of nowhere for no reason at all. They’re definitely not produced via external modulation of waves’ phase speeds.

So Phil...thoughts on if we will see snow flying at sea level in the Puget Sound area sometime over the next 3 weeks?

[Kayla]

I'm liking the chances for below to well below average temps next month and the CFS agrees so you guys can probably just stop looking at the models now.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/34gaans.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm liking the chances for below to well below average temps next month and the CFS agrees so you guys probably just stop looking at the models now.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/34gaans.png

 

Wow that is like November except the eastern seaboard is a bit warmer than average as opposed to the west coast in November. 

[Phil]

So Phil...thoughts on if we will see snow flying at sea level in the Puget Sound area sometime over the next 3 weeks?

I think it’s more likely than not, so long as the cycle of breaking waves (upstream blocking) doesn’t get torpedoed too soon by the PV/EAMT reversal, before the retrograde is complete.

[Phil]

I'm liking the chances for below to well below average temps next month and the CFS agrees so you guys can probably just stop looking at the models now.

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/34gaans.png

FWIW, I highly doubt the SE ends up warm in December.

 

Maybe some northern locales flip warm at some point once the jet goes bonkers?

[Kayla]

FWIW, I highly doubt the SE ends up warm in December.

 

Maybe the NE and/or Northern Plains flip warm. But I’m not even sure about that.

 

No one saw all this record November eastern cold/snow coming. I think it's fair to say all bets are off right now.

[Phil]

No one saw all this record November eastern cold/snow coming. I think it's fair to say all bets are off right now.

The CFS certainly didn’t.

 

I actually thought November would start cold but trend warm in the East with time. It hasn’t exactly worked out that way, though.