November 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Looking forward to seeing it later....after the nice rainbow earlier a dark and very gloomy cloud just parked itself over us.

It’s November in the PNW.

[Jesse]

Euro is more promising than the GFS in the 7-10 day range.

 

Also looks like a good setup for some strong east winds down here early next week.

[TT-SEA]

It’s November in the PNW.

 

All the more reason to want to enjoy the sun when possible during the breaks.   Statistically there is sun at times in November in the PNW.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Finally had a freeze. Got down to 30. Now if we could just get that coldest high temp down.

[stuffradio]

Really starting to miss a consistent stormy pattern. Been about 7 months now. And now is our prime time since the odds drop off quite a bit moving into January and February, given ENSO.

Not really, there are El Ninos with wet winters too, they're just usually warm and wet.

[stuffradio]

Cold Christmas?

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like ANOTHER record low at K-Falls this morning. 13 breaking the record of 14 set in 1915. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is quite dry over the next 10 days... even with the ridge breaking down later next week.

 

Most of this happens next Wednesday for the WA and OR:

 

[Front Ranger]

How about 2004. Solar was higher but declining. Fairly uneventful fall with high pressure in the NE pacific if I recall correctly.

 

The fall pattern for North America was way different in 2004.

[Front Ranger]

How about 96 instead.

 

It fits fairly well from a fall pattern and solar perspective.

 

Not so much QBO and ENSO.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

All the more reason to want to enjoy the sun when possible during the breaks.   Statistically there is sun at times in November in the PNW.  

Not everyone enjoys the sun as much as you. I can't stand it this time of year. Always in my eyes.

[TT-SEA]

Not everyone enjoys the sun as much as you. I can't stand it this time of year. Always in my eyes.

 

But it appears that Jim in Federal Way does enjoy it... and it is normal at times even in November here.

[Blizzard777]

It’s November in the PNW.

I don’t mind November dark but this was like Gotham city depressing dark!

[Front Ranger]

True, but 2002/03 was also more recent, so some of the multidecadal changes in the tropical forcing(s) are better expressed in 2002/03 than in ENSO/QBO/solar matches from 50+ years ago. The more I dig deeply into analogs and their verification, the more I realize how important “recency” is. The climate system has changed its structure significantly since the 1950s/1960s. Those years are much more problematic as analogs even when some of the more “well known” boundary conditions match.

 

And of course, this year’s vortex is nowhere near as strong as the behemoth in 1986/87 and 1991/1994 et al. There were reasons for those anomalies, and they don’t exist today. If we repeated the ENSO/QBO of 1994/95 today, for instance, the outcome would be much colder across the US now than it was then, thanks to a weaker vortex/+NAM today.

 

So, I think when choosing analogs in a year like this where they're relatively scarce, I’d weight “recency” higher on the spectrum of importance than I would normally do. So, perhaps a blend of 1986/87, 1987/88, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2006/07, 2014/15, and 2015/16 will provide more homogenous to the eventual outcome of 2018/19 than most of the cold analogs.

 

Yeah, I get that. But there are many previous winters where "old" analogs still have proved useful for me.

 

I just can't buy 1987-88, 2002-03, or 2015-16 as good analogs at all. The others all have more legitimacy in my mind.

[Front Ranger]

Looking forward to seeing it later....after the nice rainbow earlier a dark and very gloomy cloud just parked itself over us.

 

You can see that cloud right now from the Space Needle Cam, where it's sunny. 

[TT-SEA]

Sun is trying to come out here now...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still fogged in here along the river in Salem, though I see the airport has broken out as of the 11am obs. Was cloudy most of the night up at the house and only bottomed out at 38.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t mind November dark but this was like Gotham city depressing dark!

 

 

We had that for 2 hours last Thursday... it was just about night in the middle of the day.    It felt sort of surreal.  

[Jesse]

I don’t mind November dark but this was like Gotham city depressing dark!

Sounds atmospheric and interesting.

[Front Ranger]

Nice progressive pattern on the 12z Euro.

[Phil]

Yeah, I get that. But there are many previous winters where "old" analogs still have proved useful for me.

 

I just can't buy 1987-88, 2002-03, or 2015-16 as good analogs at all. The others all have more legitimacy in my mind.

Which “others” are you referring to? I don’t see any reasonable low frequency similarities to years like 1951/52 (+AMO/-PDO/retracted z-cells/solar maximum). The differences are so immense..much more-so than even 2015/16, ironically.

 

Much easier for something like 2014/15 or 2002/03 to occur now than something like 1951/52, The mid-20th century background state is dead and gone, for the time being.

[TT-SEA]

Nice progressive pattern on the 12z Euro.

12Z EPS agrees.

[Deweydog]

Ski Bowl still not open.

[Front Ranger]

Which “others” are you referring to? I don’t see any reasonable low frequency similarities to years like 1951/52 (+AMO/-PDO/retracted z-cells/solar maximum). The differences are so immense..much more-so than even 2015/16, ironically.

 

Much easier for something like 2014/15 or 2002/03 to occur now than something like 1951/52, The mid-20th century background state is dead and gone, for the time being.

 

The others were the other winters you mentioned.

 

1951-52 has the following similarities: ENSO, QBO, pattern match. Better overall than 2015-16 or 1987-88, I think.

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[Phil]

The others were the other winters you mentioned.

 

1951-52 has the following similarities: ENSO, QBO, pattern match. Better overall than 2015-16 or 1987-88, I think.

FWIW, the QBO in 1951/52 was likely a exact match to that of 2002/03 (westerly downwell to 50mb). Throw in the solar maximum, opposing warm pool/PDO/AMO, and the globally-contracted Hadley Cells/weak off-equator convection, I don’t see how it’s even physically to obtain a solution like 1951/52.

 

The ENSO/QBO in 1951/52 were both structured quite differently to 2018/19, in a vastly different climate era. So there needs to be something else (something monumental) to repeat a circulation like that this winter.

[MossMan]

Has it been wet lately?

 

I must've missed the all the tim posts recently!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Been well above normal up here so yep I am happy with a break.

[Phil]

FWIW, if you compare the ENSO in S/O/N in 1951 to that of 2002, the latter is much more similar to 2018/19.

 

The 1951/52 niño was east-based (also shifted southward in extent, as-expected given the more southward ITCZ/Hadley Cell network then). That is certainly not the case this year.

 

[Phil]

Compared to 2018. Even more northward shifted this year with a broad/dispersed warm pool also evident.

 

The Atlantic is the only persistent mismatch.

 

[Timmy]

Just 41 so far for a high here today, socked in all the way up here, which isn’t very common in low fog situations. Feels like winter!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Expected to hit 55 today so we would still be above the lowest high so far. Insane that we haven't had a colder high since Oct 5. This new climate state makes me sad.

[Timmy]

Expected to hit 55 today so we would still be above the lowest high so far. Insane that we haven't had a colder high since Oct 5. This new climate state makes me sad.

just 5 years ago it would have had no problem being 54 I’d bet. It’s a sad day for sure!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The FV3-GFS really gets the storm train going in the long range. Maybe it and the EURO are on to something?

[Front Ranger]

FWIW, the QBO in 1951/52 was likely a exact match to that of 2002/03 (westerly downwell to 50mb). Throw in the solar maximum, opposing warm pool/PDO/AMO, and the globally-contracted Hadley Cells/weak off-equator convection, I don’t see how it’s even physically to obtain a solution like 1951/52.

 

The ENSO/QBO in 1951/52 were both structured quite differently to 2018/19, in a vastly different climate era. So there needs to be something else (something monumental) to repeat a circulation like that this winter.

I don't think 1951-52 is a great analog. But there's hardly any even decent ones this year. Slim pickens, as my mom would say.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could handle a 1951-52 type winter. Not great by 50s standards, but would be decent by today's standards.

[Jesse]

just 5 years ago it would have had no problem being 54 I’d bet. It’s a sad day for sure!

These get funnier every time.

[TT-SEA]

We’ll need to look into this!

 

 

Let’s give the soil a break first.

 

 

Miserable.

 

 

Better post 50 in case somebody misses it.

 

 

 

These get funnier every time.

[ShawniganLake]

I could handle a 1951-52 type winter. Not great by 50s standards, but would be decent by today's standards.

I checked out of curiosity, as I normally ignore analogs that old. Pretty solid winter up here. 55” of snow and a December January mean around 33.1F. Top tier stuff for post 1980 climo

[Jesse]

These get funnier every time.

Glad you think so!

[Timmy]

These get funnier every time.

Year round complaining when temps are above where you want them or precip is below where you want it gets funnier every time!