Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 A composite blend of the major models at this range is really looking good for IA posters. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Man, someone is gonna get buried. Dont forget about the wind with this thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Either way you look at it, that is going to be one hellova defo band setting up across the Plains/MW for those lucky enough to be underneath it. The 00z Euro Control trying to give some love farther SE... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Interesting trends overnight for those of us in N IL as there are more EPS members showing snow across the area and now bring the 2" line into the area. Overall, still looking good for nearly all of IA and centering the jack zone from DSM thru DVN. However, I will say, the snow shield is getting notably smaller and not as widespread it was showing a couple days ago. This makes sense since we are seeing the op runs with a more potent/dynamic/compact system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I think at this range the models are really struggling with temps; both surface and aloft. Forecast High temp for DSM area is around 50-52F on Saturday. It's pretty difficult to get an appreciable snow event in C.IA with highs in the lows 50's 12 hours out,, even in Jan. So these S models - I don't buy. I think the jack zone will run very neat the HWY-20 to HWY 30 corridor in C.IA-- if not further N . Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 From the DVN: “Sunday remains the main question in the long term as models have all trended to a solution that makes the area wet. While models have similar locations of the track of the system, the small differences in terms of 40 to 60 miles makes a world of difference as far as impacts from this system. The 00Z GEFS solutions vary widely and lead to low confidence in the operational solutions. That said, these types of systems are usually slower and will likely feature a low track that is further west and north of where it currently is. If this were to occur, the entire area would see rain. If the track shifts east 40 to 50 miles we could be in for quite the winter weather event. With these differences confidence in overall solutions and expected impacts is low. Those traveling Sunday especially across the region should pay attention to future forecasts.” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I think at this range the models are really struggling with temps; both surface and aloft. Forecast High temp for DSM area is around 50-52F on Saturday. It's pretty difficult to get an appreciable snow event in C.IA with highs in the lows 50's 12 hours out,, even in Jan. So these S models - I don't buy. I think the jack zone will run very neat the HWY-20 to HWY 30 corridor in C.IA-- if not further N . I agree with you that, at this stage in the game, the models will struggle with temps aloft and at the surface. My thoughts from yesterday stand and I would tend to see cooler trends if they continue to advertise a dynamic storm system. We are a long ways away to see the models figure out these finer details. Additionally, that lead wave over the weekend in the N GL's is also playing an important role as it will create the trailing CF, whereby, systems love to track along. I think your area is golden at this point. The Euro is fairly accurate inside 5 days so to see it continue to paint the jack zone in C IA and into E IA, I like your chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 From the DVN: “Sunday remains the main question in the long term as models have all trended to a solution that makes the area wet. While models have similar locations of the track of the system, the small differences in terms of 40 to 60 miles makes a world of difference as far as impacts from this system. The 00Z GEFS solutions vary widely and lead to low confidence in the operational solutions. That said, these types of systems are usually slower and will likely feature a low track that is further west and north of where it currently is. If this were to occur, the entire area would see rain. If the track shifts east 40 to 50 miles we could be in for quite the winter weather event. With these differences confidence in overall solutions and expected impacts is low. Those traveling Sunday especially across the region should pay attention to future forecasts.” seems they are with DMX and reading between the lines that they discount the Southern guidance. Again- I think C.IA to N.IA wins out. I think even the Twin Cities areas cannot be ruled out for heavy snow. If you really pinprick the recent trends and do the math- S.MN into C.WS may win out. I've been at this professionally a lot longer then my joining date shows on this forum - if I were in the Twin Cities area etc. -- no way I throw in the towel. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I'm pretty close to the jackzone right now but it's a few days out yet so that makes me a bit nervous. Fun system. If its snow I hope its daytime so I can fully enjoy it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 MPX sticking with southern solutions:There is considerable spread in ensemble guidance with the track of thissystem. A few bring a swath of heavy snow across Minnesota intonorthern Wisconsin, several others take it south across Nebraska,Iowa, into southern and central Wisconsin, and others keep thetrough positively tilted with little surface cyclone reflection.A large gyre across Canada will probably keep this wave on a moresoutherly track acting as a spoke to the larger circulation,unless there`s additional phasing with another short wave just tothe north that isn`t being modeled. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 06z GEFS members. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Local Mets. really backing off on the storm potential here. ( I think they really rely a lot on the Euro and with it moving more southeast they pretty much are saying a non event here). There have been a lot of changes the last 3 days, let's see the next couple. As Tom has stated, if you don't get anything from this storm, there are many more opportunities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 At this point we need the storm to actually make landfall and see what the NAM does with it. Been fun watching this storm either way. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 06z GEFS members.I will take member 8 to go, please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowballfight80 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 OAX weather discussion:A second stronger shortwave is expected to arrive in the regionlate Saturday into Sunday, bringing with it windier, colder, andpotentially snowier weather. The general trend in the models (forthe track of the upper trough and surface low) remains largelyunchanged from this time yesterday, and continues to favor a swathof accumulating snow through the central plains. For this reason,rain, turning to snow Saturday night into early Sunday, remainsthe going forecast for our region. Changes in the forecasttrack/strength of the system remain possible. Anyone with travelplans in the central Plains Sunday should monitor the forecastclosely. Forecast confidence in a significant snow storm overeastern Nebraska/western Iowa Saturday night and Sunday remainsmoderate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 If you live in Nebraska.....there isnt always next time...lol. storms and setups like these dont come around often. Fun to track and im mildly excited! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Per NOAA: LONG TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAYLong range guidance continues to indicate a very active pattern forthe long term period. The GFS and ECMWF are in generally goodagreement with southeast Michigan being in between amplifyingnorthern stream and southern stream energy, with the result being aperiod of light to moderate showers during the day Saturday.Temperature profiles will remain above freezing to result in rain asthe ptype. As this first system exits by Sunday, only a briefreprieve looks to be in store as additional Pacific energy ejectingout of the Rockies results in potentially deep low pressuredeveloping in the mid-Mississippi Valley by Sunday evening. Stillplenty of time to watch this system unfold as it impacts the regionfor early next week, with the exact synoptic evolution and trackhaving significant implications on ptype. Pieces still need to get ironed out per models. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Icon is way south... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ICON model just changed drastically lol. Even south of the euro. Says what storm? Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Meanwhile the 12z NAM has the precip shield way north in the Dakotas. Model differences may increase even more before they converge on a solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I will take member 8 to go, please.I’d take about half of those solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Check out the difference in the northern stream system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Meanwhile the 12z NAM has the precip shield way north in the Dakotas. Model differences may increase even more before they converge on a solution.I feel as if the NAM starts off with the northern solutions every single time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 I feel as if the NAM starts off with the northern solutions every single time. That has always seemed to be the bias with the NAM, but it has fared pretty well so far this winter season. I'm going to keep riding the Euro until it burns me a few more times. It's been a little off so far this month, but overall still has the best track record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Gfs also going south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 ICON The ICON very much resembles the Oct version of this system. My hope is with the jet stream being stronger and some blocking being present that this system will slow down and be a bit stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Way way south. Congrats N MO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Gfs coming in south also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Yeah my parents and family from MO and IL covered in that nice heavy band in the icon. Sigh snow hates me. I lived in DC from 98 to 02 only one noreaster when I lived there. Three the year before and the year after I moved they had one that dumped 20 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looks like chi town is real close nice hit for northern Missouri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Tom is the winner of the 12z GFS sweepstakes. Congrats Tom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Sigh....thought last night things were agreeing a bit more lol. This looks more like a clipper. Northern jet too strong in a way doesnt allow it to dig over KC Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 This run of the GFS looks like an improvement. Pretty impressed with the consistency given how far out it is. Makes me think we could still be in for a surprise...Going to pat myself on the back here. Knew there was going to be some kind of change at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Extremely low ratios on the GFS using Kuchera. 10:1 map is significantly higher with snow totals, so I'm guessing this run is showing only 6-8:1 ratios. Looks a lot like the ICON, now even further south than the Euro. GFS has really been all over on this storm so once again I'll be waiting for the Euro to see if it shifts at all. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018112112/126/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Looks like the GEM is trying to tie the Friday system in with the late weekend storm. Because why not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Well that changed drastically from past few runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Nothing wound up. Looks like a plain old wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Canadian also shifted south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 21, 2018 Report Share Posted November 21, 2018 Wouldn't be surprised if Euro goes even more south. Prolly be another St Louis bomb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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