December 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[BLI snowman]

I could have sworn either February 2015 or 2016 got close too, more recently. Those were also very warm Febs, back to back.

 

The warmest temps in the metro area were 66-67 in 2016 and 64-65 in 2015.

 

The last time that PDX even topped 65 in February was 2/23/1995. Shortly after our blizzard friend departed.

[Phil]

Are you talking about the ridging? In that case I agree wholeheartedly.

Yeah, if it’s warm ridging. Anything that involves subtropical air and elevated humidity bothers me.

 

That said, I’d love to experience a cold, foggy inversion pattern like you guys get, but sadly the sun is too strong for that here.

[TT-SEA]

Would you prefer water year to date? My guess is no, because it still doesn't show what you are claiming. 

 

This is literally the entire period you just referenced.

 

WaterPNormWA.png

 

 

The WRCC maps definitely lean towards drier than reality.    

 

Likely because they are built on data from the WRCC stations and many of those end up with missing days.     That is just the reality.   

 

Actual measured rainfall in the Snoqualmie Valley is very close to the long-term average since September.   

 

Even with missing days... the Snoqualmie Falls WRCC station had over 16 inches of rain from September - November period and normal is 17 inches.    And the reality is probably 17 inches compared to normal of 17 inches.   

[Front Ranger]

The WRCC maps definitely lean towards drier than reality.    

 

Likely because they are built on data from the WRCC stations and many of those end up with missing days.     That is just the reality.   

 

Because actual measured rainfall in the Snoqualmie Valley is very close to the long-term average since September.   

 

Even with missing days... the Snoqualmie Falls station had over 16 inches of rain from September - November period and normal is 17 inches.    

 

Interesting theory. Strangely enough, almost all long term reliable stations with historical records for that same location that we can compare actual averages to seem to support the maps pretty well.

 

And over the last 4 years or so, I don't recall this theory coming up much at all, at least when the maps showed most the area wetter than normal (quite common!).

[TT-SEA]

And the whole point was... if I am controlling the weather than I would not make so Oregon has all the dry weather and its normal up here.    I would flip it around and make it much drier than normal here.  

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Snoqualmie Falls had 6.24" against an 8.58" average and is only missing two days, the 6th and 7th. And I don't think they had 2.5"+ over those two days. There wasn't much going on. Seems like a dry November there.

 

These are not the facts Tim is talking about.

[BLI snowman]

I think I get what you’re saying. Stuck in no mans land between a cool, crisp inversion pattern and a dynamic, stormy pattern. I’d probably hate that, too.

 

At least there will be Alaskan blocking in January. Much less of this pseudo-zonal GOA vortex crap.

 

That's El Nino in a nutshell here. The GOA vortex and/or Rex Block patterns in those years will spell some of the dullest weather imaginable around here. Inversions are quite preferable. 

[GHweatherChris]

#triggered, again.....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So how about that Euro?

 

Looking...

 

[TT-SEA]

Interesting theory. Strangely enough, almost all long term reliable stations with historical records for that same location that we can compare actual averages to seem to support the maps pretty well.

 

And over the last 4 years or so, I don't recall this theory coming up much at all, at least when the maps showed most the area wetter than normal (quite common!).

 

Wetter than normal would not be exaggerated by missing days.    If the maps show wetter than normal... than you can assume it was really wetter than normal when considering there are likely missing days.

 

And for my area... its been basically normal.   Use just the Snoqualmie Falls WRCC station if you want.   I posted daily data from another station with NO missing days... and its been almost perfectly normal based on that since September.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I would also kill for a January 2013 redux. The most sub-freezing highs in January at SLE since 1979. 

[Phil]

At this point I would also kill for a January 2013 redux.

That’s a legitimate possibility this year.

[Front Ranger]

You've used Palmer before. Why not use that historically reliable data now?

 

This station, which Tim used to reference as the closest reliable long term station to his location, has been below normal for precip every single month since April.

 

Running about 18" below normal for the year. Missing no data.

[Requiem]

Looks like Seattle could get a good blow on Friday, gusts 45-60 perhaps. 

[Jesse]

Looking...

 

 

Next frame is better.

[TT-SEA]

These are not the facts Tim is talking about.

I did not know you could identify the missing days.   That is helpful.   There was about .50 on those days at the other station.

 

So add that to November and you come up with roughly 16.70 inches for September - November.    Normal is 17.13 inches.

 

So even using WRCC... basically normal since September.   Its been basically normal here this fall and early winter.    

 

Normal in terms of total precipitation and normal in terms of number of dry days.     Tell me where I am wrong when talking about my area?  

[Phil]

This station, which Tim used to reference as the closest reliable long term station to his location, has been below normal for precip every single month since April.

 

Running about 18" below normal for the year.

Knock me over with a feather.

 

When the pendulum inevitably swings the other way, he’s gonna nope the f**k outta there like a bolt of lightning.

[Front Ranger]

I did not know you could identify the missing days.   That is helpful.   There was about .50 on those days at the other station.

 

So add that to November and you come up with roughly 16.70 inches for September - November.    Normal is 17.13 inches.

 

So even using WRCC... basically normal since September.   Its been basically normal here this fall and early winter.    

 

Normal in terms of total precipitation and normal in terms of number of dry days.     Tell me where I am wrong when talking about my area?  

 

You just moved the goalposts from Oct-present to Sep-Nov.

 

And why have you decided to totally ignore Palmer all of the sudden? C'mon, Tim...this is why people don't take you seriously. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Getting a good old fashion Victoria rainstorm this evening.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Next frame is better.

 

Yeah definitely could be worse.

[Phil]

I’m getting deja vu of my deja vu all over again.

 

This same convo literally replays itself over and over again on here. Like a skipping record.

[Requiem]

Getting a good old fashion Victoria rainstorm this evening.

 

Enjoy, looks like you might be getting one on Friday too.

[TT-SEA]

You just moved the goalposts from Oct-present to Sep-Nov.

 

And why have you decided to totally ignore Palmer all of the sudden? C'mon, Tim...this is why people don't take you seriously. 

 

 

 

OMG.    I said fall and early winter!    Come on Jared.    I am not trying to pull anything here.   I said its been around normal.   IT HAS.  

 

And I have no idea about Palmer but there is a mountain between me and Palmer... and I can see Snoqualmie from my front window.   Maybe Palmer is shadowed more in NW flow which has been more persistent than usual this year.

[MossMan]

Just let the dogs out one last time before bed, still windy and a little light rain as well. Power is still on.

[Jesse]

Euro definitely taking a different path than the GFS beyond day 7.

[TT-SEA]

I’m getting deja vu of my deja vu all over again.

 

This same convo literally replays itself over and over again on here. Like a skipping record.

 

 

No doubt!

 

I made a joke implying that if I was actually controlling the weather then I am not doing a good job because it been essentially normal in my area this fall.   But no... Jared has to tell me how wrong I am.     I am not wrong.    

 

Snoqualmie Falls for Sept - November:

 

Actual - 16.70 inches

Normal - 17.13 inches

 

December is at 3.54 inches... normal is 8.61 inches.  

 

Pretty close to normal.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Enjoy, looks like you might be getting one on Friday too.

 

Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going.

[Requiem]

Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going.

 

I'm craving a windstorm right now. Been a while since one's hit Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through day 9.5 (day 10  is not out yet).    This is a nice improvement over the 12Z run.

 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some potential fun on Friday afternoon. It depends on how far north the low ends up going.

 

Definitely more wind than previous runs on Friday...

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah definitely could be worse.

 

It's better than the GFS, at least.

 

Could easily see things turning dramatically better in the models within 24-48 hours. Trust them even less than normal right now.

[MikeInEverett]

Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this  It's laughable at this point.

[Jesse]

Euro still looks wetter than the GFS too.

[TT-SEA]

Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this  It's laughable at this point.

 

Yep!    

[TT-SEA]

Euro still looks wetter than the GFS too.

 

Definitely.  

 

Total precip through day 9.5 (day 10 total map has not updated but its dry on days 9 and 10 anyways):

 

[Front Ranger]

OMG.    I said fall and early winter!    Come on Jared.    I am not trying to pull anything here.   I said its been around normal.   IT HAS.  

 

And I have no idea about Palmer but there is a mountain between me and Palmer... and I can see Snoqualmie from my front window.   Maybe Palmer is shadowed more in NW flow which has been more persistent than usual this year.

 

All I know is, you literally referenced Oct-present at first, then switched to Sep-Nov. If that's not changing goal posts, I don't know what is.

 

And you used to have no issues using Palmer as a long term comparison for your area, mountain or no. 

 

I don't think you're a bad guy at all, Tim, and you know I stick up for you when I think you're being treated unfairly. But in cases like this, you're clearly cherry-picking data to support a narrative. We all do it to a certain extent, but you've really taken it to a new level here.

 

If you were consistent, like using the same long term station for comparisons or using the same maps (not just until they are inconvenient to the narrative) or the same time periods, then I would cut you more slack. 

[TT-SEA]

If the ECMWF verifies... it would get most of BC and WA to normal or above normal precip for December.   

 

I am really just happy to see the snowfall totals increasing again after several runs going the wrong direction.  

[Front Ranger]

Someone makes a joke about Tim controlling the weather and it turns into this  It's laughable at this point.

 

He deserves to be treated fairly.

[Requiem]

Can someone post a EURO gust map of Tuesday?

[luminen]

I'm done with this climate.

 

35" of rain since September plus nearly 10" in the next 9 days forecast to fall. You can only take so much rain in this moss-infested place.