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March 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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We may see a few wet snow flakes mixed in at the start of the rain early this afternoon and again towards tomorrow morning as the storm pulls away. Otherwise, a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will continue for at least the next couple weeks. Another storm will impact us Sunday night into Monday.
Records for today: High 79.2 (2016) / Low 4 below zero (1984) / Precipitation 1.47" (1952) / Snow 13.3" (1907)
image.png.8ecd9ed4662535947fff6c939861d8f4.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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With the type of snow that fell last night I don’t know how much actually fell, but I took several measurements around the yard. And there is between 5 to 5.5” of snow on the ground here.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 42/30 there was 0.15” of precipitation before midnight that fell as a reported 3” of snow fall. There was 16% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in my yard was 30 and as I stated I have between 5 to 5.5” of snow on the ground. At the current time light snow is fall here with a temperature of 30. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 69 was set way back in 1894 in 2nd place is the 67 recorded in 2021. The record low of +3 was in 1972 The is the 1st time in the year that the low for the day is above zero.  The weekend and the start of next week look to be below average with a chance of some more snow on Sunday night into Monday. It should moderate to near average by mid week.

 

 

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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

GFS still showing some potential one week from today, a rather strong push of cold air and a possible storm...

Another good snow coming for Iowa tomorrow? May sneak into northern MO. KC will be close to some snow tomorrow morning as temps will be near 32 as moisture moves in. 

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22 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Oh man the first year I started looking at models I thought I would be snowboarding into April and it was going to be the most epic March ever, lol.

You missed my point. I don't want more snow. But wouldn't surprise me if it does sadly

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It is conceivable to believe that many ski resorts out west will have snow on the mountains till late in June or even July.  My guess is you'll be seeing Fireworks up in Tahoe and people skiing???   The one ski resort that had my attn all season long has been Park City.  Needless to say, they have had a tremendous amount of snow (461" and counting).    Extending their season by a couple weeks is almost a given.

https://www.parkcitymountain.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/terrain-and-lift-status.aspx

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We came close but no cigar as PHX topped out at 79F due to cloud cover that hung around through midday.  That's the warmest temp it has been so far this year.  I was at Home Depot yesterday and everyone was out in the Garden Center. Spring has FINALLY sprung out here in the valley.  You can hear conversations of people talking about the weather and how delighted everyone is to finally experience warmth!  I haven't been out to Scottsdale yet but maybe today or tomorrow I'll venture out there and see how busy it is from all the visitors.  Spring Training is in full swing and the Nascar is here this weekend.  The Valley is buzzing!

 

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Interesting wording from DTX in this afternoon’s discussion:

“A strong southwesterly warm air advection pattern is then expected
to develop for the end of the week. Uncertainty exists on when
precipitation chances will increase as Southeast Michigan could find
itself favorably in a downstream ridge for a time with plenty of dry
air. Currently the forecast is very broadbrushed with the PoPs and
carries a risk to mischaracterize a narrative ahead of the actual
upper level low.”

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4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Largest flakes I've ever seen!! Some are easily 1.5 to even 2" across!!

 

 

 

 

I've already noticed when flakes are really big than visibility actually increases a bit since they are usually spaced further apart. Anyway, if you look up you can also see the chunks coming at you from quite a ways up.

This system wants to weaken as it moves east like models were showing. Still nothing here as there must be a dry layer aloft. 

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On 3/10/2023 at 6:41 AM, Tom said:

All the years I've been coming to the PHX Valley, I've never seen the Salt River Project release water from the reservoirs.  This is the second largest snowpack in over 30 years!

Mar 10th_PHX Valley Dam Release.png

 

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/srp-releasing-water-from-reservoir-to-make-room-for-anticipated-runoff

 

 

They did this a few times when I was there. I recall after a few monsoon storms this happened. It also happened in the Spring of 2020 after a reasonably wet winter. But you are correct that it means reservoirs are in good shape down there. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Should be a few strong to severe storms, mainly for hail, popping over SE OK this evening. Probably nothing too crazy and almost certainly well south of my place.

Still looking like a pretty strong cold front next week that might be close to a snow tease but ultimately just cold rain with not much of a severe risk. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Some pretty insane snow depth reports coming out of Duluth Airport -- just a few hours ago- 42" of snow on the ground 0655Z. Amazing ---this ties KDLH for all time #3 greatest single day snow depth***  (though official snow depth is taken at 6am local time) -- It's not likely to challenge 3-18/19 1965. (at least not yet) . Some incredible snow depths in that region .

KDLH 120655Z 09017KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN FEW009 BKN013 OVC021 M03/M05 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP138 SNINCR 3/42 P0004 T10331050
KDLH 120555Z 10014G22KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN BKN007 BKN010 OVC014 M04/M05 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP142 SNINCR 2/39 P0006 60026 T10391050 11039 21044 410331061 58020

*** edit that *** now all alone at #3

KDLH 120755Z 10017G24KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN VV014 M03/M05 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP128 SNINCR 1/43 P0003 T10331050

 

and then this--

KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015

image.thumb.png.6181643f5b33c04f4b171ec83a1645b5.png

 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I slept in this morning due to the time change and a late night last night. Anyway there is a covering of snow on the ground this morning. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 39/22 there was no rain or snow fall before midnight and the day started with officially 2” of snow on the ground. Like I stated there was some light snow fall here overnight and the low here was 28 at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 32 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 43/26 the record high of 76 was set in 1990 and the record low of +2 was in 1948 and 1993. The record snow fall of just 3.2” fell in 1923. The week ahead looks to be kind of up and down with snow and rain.

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29 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I slept in this morning due to the time change and a late night last night. Anyway there is a covering of snow on the ground this morning. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 39/22 there was no rain or snow fall before midnight and the day started with officially 2” of snow on the ground. Like I stated there was some light snow fall here overnight and the low here was 28 at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 32 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 43/26 the record high of 76 was set in 1990 and the record low of +2 was in 1948 and 1993. The record snow fall of just 3.2” fell in 1923. The week ahead looks to be kind of up and down with snow and rain.

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

1.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

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27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

1.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

NWS Hastings and now my weather apps mentioning a potential winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday. We are on Spring Break this week so I can experience it at home if it verifies. Will always take more moisture in any form. 

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On 3/8/2023 at 10:43 AM, chescowxman said:
If any comfort for team snow...we are not alone in our snow drought here in 2022/23. Below are other Northeast Corridor locations and their current vs. (average) snow to date
Chester County PA 2.7" (31.0") / Allentown 6.3" (28.2") / Philadelphia 0.3" (20.5") / NYC Central Park 2.3" (26.1") /LGA NY 3.3" (25.7") / JFK NY 2.0" (22.4") / Newark NJ 2.3" (27.2") / Bridgeport CT 4.9" (27.9") / Boston 11.9" (41.4") / Providence RI 11.5" (31.7")

It has been a crazy winter the whole entire i-95 corridor this year. I am from NYC and family and friends there have been telling me that all time records have been broken from this snow-drought. Just amazing.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Ended up with a decent number of hail producing storms in southeast OK last night but all is quiet today with just some clouds and a chilly north breeze.

Gradual warm up through Thursday until the next storm hits. It should be a decent rain maker but still does not look like a big severe threat to me. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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EPS says winter isn't done with a snow chance in 8-9 days or so. Climatology still says this is possible but quite unlikely, and that's probably what I would say at this point too. But with everything greening up it's probably time to move on from this crappy winter anyway. Hoping for a busy severe season! 

image.png

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

1.png

 

0z EPS...

image.gif

East Coast catching up.

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15 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Some pretty insane snow depth reports coming out of Duluth Airport -- just a few hours ago- 42" of snow on the ground 0655Z. Amazing ---this ties KDLH for all time #3 greatest single day snow depth***  (though official snow depth is taken at 6am local time) -- It's not likely to challenge 3-18/19 1965. (at least not yet) . Some incredible snow depths in that region .

KDLH 120655Z 09017KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN FEW009 BKN013 OVC021 M03/M05 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP138 SNINCR 3/42 P0004 T10331050
KDLH 120555Z 10014G22KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN BKN007 BKN010 OVC014 M04/M05 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP142 SNINCR 2/39 P0006 60026 T10391050 11039 21044 410331061 58020

*** edit that *** now all alone at #3

KDLH 120755Z 10017G24KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN VV014 M03/M05 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP128 SNINCR 1/43 P0003 T10331050

 

and then this--

KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015

image.thumb.png.6181643f5b33c04f4b171ec83a1645b5.png

 

 

Duluth has SMASHED this record-

55" (and likely more since this ob)

KDLH 121655Z COR 06014G26KT 1/4SM R09/2400V4500FT -SN FZFG BKN009 OVC015 M03/M06 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 06032/1634 SLP126 SNINCR 1/55 P0003 T10331056

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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^^ something seems amiss as this says 38" snow depth at 7am this morning. Must be two different reporting locations --

still- that 38" is likely well into the 40's by now.

image.thumb.png.ba0d649b4c7a8ef3f8afba862a0d54ac.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Duluth / Arrowhead of MN is going to have snow in shady spots in the woods and N facing slopes well into June this year. I have seen left over snow (mini glaciers) on shaded rock faces on small bodies of water as lake as June 5th. This year will probably beat that if I could get back to the same spots.

Duluth was at 116" for the season before today. Have to be over 120" now,

Record is 135.6" in 1995-1996.  That could be broken with next event and still last half of March and all of April left.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The overnight snow continues this AM and there is just under 3” of new snow on the ground here in MBY. With yesterdays official snow fall amount at Grand Rapids the seasonal snow fall is up to 102.4” and there will be more after the overnight snow fall is added. The official H/L yesterday at GR was 32/26 there was 0.06” of precipitation of that 0.9” was snow fall. There was just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 43/26 the record high is 75 set in 1990 and the record low of +3 was set in 2014. The record snow fall amount of 3.6” fell in 1998. Last year the H/L was 40/15.

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Quite the wintry morning here in KC, minus any snow cover. 25 degrees, north wind and cloudy. YUCK!

What's the storm going to do later this week...anyone? KC could have thunderstorms with temps 65-70, followed by rain to a mix and maybe a coating of snow by Friday morning with temps falling to 22-24 degrees. 

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8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not only #11 in total snowfall but also in consecutive days with snow cover.

 

Golly, you've had a good ride this past winter and it doesn't want to let go!  I'm sure your ready to see warmer temps and start tracking severe wx.

 

Meantime, we have ourselves another Beast to track for St Patty's Day...start a thread?

image.png

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A storm will form along the coast and strengthen as it moves northeast. We should see rain showers today mixing with snow at times late tonight and into the day tomorrow. Some spots may pick up a small slushy accumulation.
Records for today: High 80 (1990) / Low 1 below zero {1896} / Precipitation 2.51" (1993) / Snow 15.2" (1993)
image.png.1b14ee6abcc74e90a58ffd5602880c02.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The 1" of snow that fell here a couple evenings ago melted yesterday, despite the fact we never got out of the upper 20s.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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KDSM up to 31.5" for the season. Last year was 31.3". Normal through today is 33.3"

She looked bleak a week ago to make avg snowfall. Not so much anymore.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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