March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The above chart ignores any snow that fell before December (and so far in March). For the entire winter Topeka is running at 36.7% of normal to date (5.8/15.8) and would not be over 50% even for that time period (meteorological winter). The point is the disparities for the entire season are actually worse than shown for some areas.

Yup, I see what your saying, I'm sure there are other cities that are far worse than 50% of normal in that highlighted zone.  

[Tom]

Euro Seasonal came in and is pretty much showing what the CFSv2 is suggesting....that battle zone in the Texarkana/S MW region could be en fuego!

 

 

How about April?

 

 

Looks similar to the CanSIPS...

 

[MIKEKC]

Winter looks like its over for KC, never really got going this year. Pattern still looks active, but, we will likely be on the warm side of the systems. With our really wet winter, grass is greening up and even growing on the warmer side of buildings. A great weather pattern this winter, just didn't have the cold to go with it. 

Beautiful 73 degrees yesterday in KC, although the wind was a problem.

More snow to our north over the next few weeks, right where it has been all season. Enjoy! 

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter looks like its over for KC, never really got going this year. Pattern still looks active, but, we will likely be on the warm side of the systems. With our really wet winter, grass is greening up and even growing on the warmer side of buildings. A great weather pattern this winter, just didn't have the cold to go with it. 

Beautiful 73 degrees yesterday in KC, although the wind was a problem.

More snow to our north over the next few weeks, right where it has been all season. Enjoy! 

73F sounds amazing!  St Patty's weekend looks ugly up this way and nasso nice.  I think your area will be very active once the warmth clashes with the troughs coming off the Rockies.  Should be an active Spring for sure.

[Andie]

North Texas will have 2 days of rain Mon & Tue. Low 70’s.  
It’s great to get this much needed rain.

 

[MIKEKC]

My bad, winter may not be over...the GFS has 6-23 inches from east to west across the city St. Patty's Weekend. Tom, it certainly looks stormy next weekend right around the parade. LRC suggests so too

[gimmesnow]

Every year I've been here the models always struggle with the end of winter. For there start of March there's almost always a huge snow storm 5+ days out and there's almost always a turn to cold temps 4+ days out, but it never shows up and it ends up disappointing, just getting pushed back further and further. The models all wuss out when it gets under 4 or 5 days and the local forecasts always keep pushing the cold back further and further as snow totals drop.

[tStacsh]

8 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Every year I've been here the models always struggle with the end of winter. For there start of March there's almost always a huge snow storm 5+ days out and there's almost always a turn to cold temps 4+ days out, but it never shows up and it ends up disappointing, just getting pushed back further and further. The models all wuss out when it gets under 4 or 5 days and the local forecasts always keep pushing the cold back further and further as snow totals drop.

It's also 5-10 degrees warmer than computer model forecast if the sun comes out.  At least in Michigan this time of year.  If it's forecast for 42 and sun, I'll get to about 50.  Just like yesterday.  Much warmer than forecasted.    

[Jayhawker85]

3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

My bad, winter may not be over...the GFS has 6-23 inches from east to west across the city St. Patty's Weekend. Tom, it certainly looks stormy next weekend right around the parade. LRC suggests so too

Isn’t this the same model that had us getting 30 inches this weekend but 2 days later showing rain and 50?

[james1976]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like the west side got hit pretty good... 5-6" totals by @MNTonka

I didn't do another measurement but eyeballing maybe another inch so im thinking 4.5-5" here total. Snow is stuck to everything although it has melted some.

[sumweatherdude]

The Bradford Pear trees are starting to bud/bloom and I have Day Lillies coming up in our flower bed.  10-14 days early.  Maybe it'll snow and maybe it won't.  But winter is basically over around here.  I think I had one daytime snowfall this year that was worth seeing.  I didn't shovel once.  

Looks like the Twin Cities could be going for an all-time winter record this year.  I believe it's 98.6 inches.  

I lived there once upon a time . Sigh . . . 

[gimmesnow]

49 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Isn’t this the same model that had us getting 30 inches this weekend but 2 days later showing rain and 50?

The models always struggle very badly this time of year. Just enjoy it as entertainment and if it actually happens be extremely grateful.

[sumweatherdude]

4 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

My bad, winter may not be over...the GFS has 6-23 inches from east to west across the city St. Patty's Weekend. Tom, it certainly looks stormy next weekend right around the parade. LRC suggests so too

For KC, it's over.  There wasn't any cold air all winter (save a few days in December).  Mid-March isn't going to give us the cold we need now.   A couple of weeks ago I thought we'd at least break double digits.  Now, I don't think so.

[Hoosier]

Had some thunder this morning.

[james1976]

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I didn't do another measurement but eyeballing maybe another inch so im thinking 4.5-5" here total. Snow is stuck to everything although it has melted some.

After going out to snowblow and shovel I'm thinking closer to 6". There was a solid 5 on the driveway and that hadn't been touched since the beginning of the event and there was definitely some compaction and melting.

It's been quite the winter up here. Every time we lose some of our snow depth we get it right back.

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago models had a temp well into the 50s today.  This morning the NWS had it down to 48, but even that was too high.  We've been stuck in the low to mid 40s with clouds and a cold wind.

[MNTonka]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like the west side got hit pretty good... 5-6" totals by @MNTonka

I’m on the other side of town (St. Paul) but we had 6” here as well. 

[westMJim]

Yesterday we woke up to around 1” of wet snow on the ground. That snow melted during the day as the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 41/33. The 1” was part of the 0.39” of precipitation that fell yesterday. There was 21 minutes or 3% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature of 29 with clear skies at this time. For today the average H/L is 41/24 the record high of 72 was set in 2000 and the record low of -3 was set in 1986. The record snow fall of 5.2” fell in 1935. The rest of this week looks to be around average for early March. The current seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 89.8” and there is a chance we could add to that later this week. No matter what this will be the snowiest season at Grand Rapids since 2013/14. At Muskegon the seasonal snow fall is at just 47.3” that is -33.2” from average. At Lansing the total so far this season is at 49.1” that is +4.7”

[MIKEKC]

Garbage pattern alert! Geez, not one 60 degree temp in KC for the next 2 weeks, if not longer. YUCK!

[Black Hole]

There was some hope a few days ago, but models have trended away from that hard. Not only will it not snow, it looks like we will stay entirely above freezing with most days in the upper 50s or warmer for highs. So I went out and started my garden with my cool season stuff yesterday. 

A disappointing finish, much like the rest of the winter. Hopefully the active storm track brings some good storm days. 

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday we woke up to around 1” of wet snow on the ground. That snow melted during the day as the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 41/33. The 1” was part of the 0.39” of precipitation that fell yesterday. There was 21 minutes or 3% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature of 29 with clear skies at this time. For today the average H/L is 41/24 the record high of 72 was set in 2000 and the record low of -3 was set in 1986. The record snow fall of 5.2” fell in 1935. The rest of this week looks to be around average for early March. The current seasonal snow fall at Grand Rapids is now at 89.8” and there is a chance we could add to that later this week. No matter what this will be the snowiest season at Grand Rapids since 2013/14. At Muskegon the seasonal snow fall is at just 47.3” that is -33.2” from average. At Lansing the total so far this season is at 49.1” that is +4.7”

almost no lake effect this year for Muskegon.  That's what happens in a warm winter though.  The 2 big lake effect events went well inland towards GR.   I wonder what the biggest difference in snowfall total is  for GR vs Muskegon.   I'd have to imagine this is one of the biggest.  

[Andie]

North Texas started out in the clouds this morning.   60* hazy and low clouds. Very nice for a change.  
Rain coming in in the early hours tomorrow. We’ll take all we can get.  

[Andie]

More rain in the forecast this week.  
Windy. Wind warning flags will be
up on area lakes Thursday.
Don’t forget to lock the doors.

https://video.foxnews.com/v/6322078724112
 

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

   I wonder what the biggest difference in snowfall total is  for GR vs Muskegon.   I'd have to imagine this is one of the biggest. 

 

So far this winter season Grand Rapids has had 89.8” of snow fall while Muskegon has only had 47.3” for a difference of 42.5”. Is this the biggest difference for Grand Rapids between the two locations?  Well no in the winter season of 2001/02 Grand Rapids had 105.2” while over at Muskegon they reported only 51.2” for a difference of 54.0” in Grand Rapids in Grand Rapids favor. While there may be others another winter season when GR had more snow than Muskegon was in the winter of 1928/29 when Grand Rapids had 55.4” and Muskegon had only 27.0” for a difference of 28.5 in Grand Rapids favor.  On the other side of the coin in the winter of 1993/94 Muskegon recorded 132.5” while Grand Rapids had 76.5” for a difference of +56.0” in Muskegon favor. In the winter of 1963/64 Muskegon had 142.8” to Grand Rapids 70.5” for a difference of 72.4” in Muskegon favor. In 1981/82 Muskegon had 173.9” to Grand Rapids 74.5” for a difference of 99.4”

[MIKEKC]

WOW! The GFS and GEM have full blown winter from Iowa up to Chicago into Michigan for the next 2-3 weeks. Cold temps and multiple snow chances. Hell, the data looks way better here in March then it ever did in Dec/Jan/Feb. 

 

 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

WOW! The GFS and GEM have full blown winter from Iowa up to Chicago into Michigan for the next 2-3 weeks. Cold temps and multiple snow chances. Hell, the data looks way better here in March then it ever did in Dec/Jan/Feb. 

 

 

That’s kinda why I booked a flight and ventured off to the desert SW!  Temps out here are largely going to be AN with highs approaching 80F for St Patty’s Day and low 80’s next week.  Soooo much looking forward to the warmth.  Enjoy the snow back home!
   

 

 

 

[sumweatherdude]

Thought this was interesting.  Multi year snow drought in the east.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Northern Nebraska is having a winter for the ages.  More snow coming.  

 

[james1976]

47 minutes ago, Tom said:

That’s kinda why I booked a flight and ventured off to the desert SW!  Temps out here are largely going to be AN with highs approaching 80F for St Patty’s Day and low 80’s next week.  Soooo much looking forward to the warmth.  Enjoy the snow back home!
  IMG_2864.MOV 12.5 MB · 2 downloads  

 

IMG_2863.MOV 5.03 MB · 2 downloads  

 

Wow you didn't get to experience much of a winter. How long you staying in the SW?

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

 

So far this winter season Grand Rapids has had 89.8” of snow fall while Muskegon has only had 47.3” for a difference of 42.5”. Is this the biggest difference for Grand Rapids between the two locations?  Well no in the winter season of 2001/02 Grand Rapids had 105.2” while over at Muskegon they reported only 51.2” for a difference of 54.0” in Grand Rapids in Grand Rapids favor. While there may be others another winter season when GR had more snow than Muskegon was in the winter of 1928/29 when Grand Rapids had 55.4” and Muskegon had only 27.0” for a difference of 28.5 in Grand Rapids favor.  On the other side of the coin in the winter of 1993/94 Muskegon recorded 132.5” while Grand Rapids had 76.5” for a difference of +56.0” in Muskegon favor. In the winter of 1963/64 Muskegon had 142.8” to Grand Rapids 70.5” for a difference of 72.4” in Muskegon favor. In 1981/82 Muskegon had 173.9” to Grand Rapids 74.5” for a difference of 99.4”

Thanks for the info,  Good stuff.  The influence of Lake Michigan and wind directions is staggering.  

[Tom]

55 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Wow you didn't get to experience much of a winter. How long you staying in the SW?

Till it warms up and stays warm...prob in May sometime.  It all depends bc I might be bouncing around out here for a couple months at least.  Our winter sucked except for the timely Christmas snow and cold outbreak.  Oh, and we had 10 days in a row towards the end of JAN with at least 1" of Snow OTG.  Depressing!  I'm seriously considering doing an AirBnB in the mountains next winter.

[gimmesnow]

Lake is almost thawed here, just a big chunk of ice floating in the bay.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, tStacsh said:

almost no lake effect this year for Muskegon.  That's what happens in a warm winter though.  The 2 big lake effect events went well inland towards GR.   I wonder what the biggest difference in snowfall total is for GR vs Muskegon.   I'd have to imagine this is one of the biggest.  

Stepped out this morning to a completely white landscape and bright sunshine. The combo was splendid. Very surprised at the fresh 1/2 inch and mostly frozen puddles. 2nd morning in a row with some fresh snow/mix. March now solidly above the normal for entire month (132%) and will be the only month w/AN snow here (unless April??? NO!! - stop that!!). And it looks like March wants to keep roaring too. 

Anyways, the snow coverage value has been a negative number here this winter, but north facing properties are still mostly snow covered in the front and bare in the rear, lol. Plow piles/banks are ridiculously stout with the water content we got last Friday, so we should have those for this week's events. On a side note, my LES total for the winter is way higher this season (15.9% vs just 0.1% last year), and the highest percent in the last 3 seasons by far. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Lake is almost thawed here, just a big chunk of ice floating in the bay.

What are you waiting for, lol

[chescowxman]

A rare for this incredibly warm winter season will be the upcoming stretch of below normal weather that is on tap for much of the area. This will also include a couple of chances of accumulating snow. The first chance is Friday night into Saturday AM and again around Monday. Of note through yesterday we are now a whopping 28.3" below normal in seasonal snowfall. To date we have seen only 2.7" of snow

Records for today: High 80 degrees (2000) / Low 7 degrees (1920) / Precipitation 2.96" (1995) / Snow 7.2" (1984)

[westMJim]

We now have 7 days of March in the record books. The first week of March has been a mild and at some locations snowy one. The mean so far at Grand Rapids is 36.3 that is +4.9 above average. The warmest so far this month at GR is 51 on the 5th and the coldest so far will be today with 24. There has been 0.54” of precipitation of that 3.0” of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean so far is 38.1 and that is a departure of +6.3. There has been 3.0” of precipitation and just 0.3” of snow fall. The high there so far is 50 on the 5th and 7th Today is also the coldest low so far this month with a low of 27.  And at Lansing the mean there is the same as GR at 36.3 but the departure there is +5.5. There has been 0.78” of precipitation and 7.5” of snow fall. The highest so far this month is 52 on the 1st and the lowest so far will be today with 24.

At Grand Rapids the official H/L yesterday was 44/27 there was a trace of snow fall reported that must have fallen before sunrise. There was 100% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 22 and at the current time it is 23 and clear. For today the average H/L is 41/25 the record high of 78 was set in 2000 and the record low of -13 was set in 1943. The largest snow fall of 4.3” fell in 1931. There are at least 2 more chances of snow in the next week

[gimmesnow]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

What are you waiting for, lol

Gotta put a new starter and gear in my stand up Superjet before I can ride. All I have to ride in cold water is a stand up jet ski, even with a 6mm two piece diving suit, boots, and gloves it's pretty cold out there when the air and water are in the 40s. I always try and make the distance between snowboarding season and jet ski season as short as possible. Last day for local riding is the 19th. My record between snowboard and jet ski is snowboard monday then jet ski friday. This year the record will fall. It's easy to complain about how bad this winter was and never being able to use my snowmobile, not even on the lake since it never froze enough to be safe, but a March like this is the best when you go from possible snow storm in the last week or two of boarding to the lake just waiting for you to jet ski.

Gonna siphon the gas out of my snowmobile and throw it in a ski. I'm actually pretty excited about this, a rapid change with weather between seasons hasn't happened the last few years. Last year the lake was so frozen because it was so cold so often but we had no snow cover.

[sumweatherdude]

19 hours ago, Tom said:

Till it warms up and stays warm...prob in May sometime.  It all depends bc I might be bouncing around out here for a couple months at least.  Our winter sucked except for the timely Christmas snow and cold outbreak.  Oh, and we had 10 days in a row towards the end of JAN with at least 1" of Snow OTG.  Depressing!  I'm seriously considering doing an AirBnB in the mountains next winter.

I applied for a job in the Twin Cities in part because I'm so sick of not having winters.  Had my second round of interviews yesterday.  I think it's still a long shot.  There will be a lot of qualified candidates who are already local.  But if I get the offer, I may very well take it.  

[chescowxman]

If any comfort for team snow...we are not alone in our snow drought here in 2022/23. Below are other Northeast Corridor locations and their current vs. (average) snow to date

Chester County PA 2.7" (31.0") / Allentown 6.3" (28.2") / Philadelphia 0.3" (20.5") / NYC Central Park 2.3" (26.1") /LGA NY 3.3" (25.7") / JFK NY 2.0" (22.4") / Newark NJ 2.3" (27.2") / Bridgeport CT 4.9" (27.9") / Boston 11.9" (41.4") / Providence RI 11.5" (31.7")

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS showing upper 70s in the extended.

Yes please.

[Andie]

Mets kinda missed the mark.  
We’re sitting at 43.  
A humid 65%
Wind at 12. 
Rain NNE of DFW but it will slide into Oklahoma.  Eck.  

[westMJim]

Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 44/24 there was no rain/snow fall. And there was 90% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is now up to 42/25 the record high of 68 was set in 2000 and the record low of -7 was set in 1996 the record snow fall amount of 8.2” fell in 1998. Today should be cloudy with a cool NE wind and high near 40. Snow looks to move in later today and overnight and might drop up to 6” of snow. So it looks like Grand Rapids will be moving closer to that 100” mark for snow fall for the season.

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was our 1st below normal day of the month....but far from our last. It looks like a sustained stretch of below normal temperatures are on tap for one of few times this non-winter season here in Chester County. It looks like yet another wintry mix arriving later tomorrow PM with maybe a slushy small accumulation especially in NW Chesco in elevations over 600 ft ASL. The real accumulation will be about 20 miles north of here in Lehigh County. More wintry mix is possible on Sunday night but again just a slushy small accumulation.

Records for today: High 78.4 (2016) / Low 4 degrees (1984)/ Precipitation 1.86" (1919) / Snow 6.0" (1976)

[Tom]

We had a wonderful day out here in the PHX valley and topped out in the low 70's.  Lot's of Spring breakers and Snow birds in town as it seems like everyone has come out of hybernation!  While I was at the pool yesterday catching up with all the locals (even the regular snow birds), all of them were complaining how bad and ugly this Winter has been here in Arizona.  Its a catch 22 bc you want to nature deliver moisture and abundance but then you have to deal with the rain and colder weather.  As the saying goes, your patience will be rewarded.  Well, that appears to be what is coming down the road as we enter the official time of astronomical Spring (3/20).  Let's take a look...

The JMA weeklies are suggesting that good ol' SW ridge to pop and potentially Lock for a good while out here as we move into April.  Unfortunately, for a lot of you out in the Heartland of the Nation, it doesn't look to nice.  Where was this in Winter?

 

 

 

Euro Weeklies are singing a similar tune, but there is somewhat of a decent signal that it warms up by the time we flip the calendar into April for parts of the MW/GL's.  

 

500mb pattern from 3/20 into late April...

 

[Tom]

Took some cool vids and pics as we took off from ORD…

   

 

As we approached the SW, the mountains of NM and AZ were caked with a lot of snow.  Over the past 15+ years of flying down here, I’ve never seen this much snow and at such low elevations.

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

[Black Hole]

Our next severe storm risk will be Saturday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough erodes some mid level CIN. Some pretty good MUCAPE develops, perhaps 1000-1500 J/kg. We should be able to see some marginally severe hail develop in this setup. 

[Black Hole]

1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

This run does show some sleet down here, but I am not expecting it to actually happen. More likely it'll turn into another CA atmospheric river in a few days lol. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

Doh, I totally thought this weekend was St Patty's day bc in Chicago they are dyeing the river green this Saturday.  My bad!

[MIKEKC]

Some decent signs for some late season cold...