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March 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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The amount of dry slots we have had here in Eastern Nebraska is unreal. I went back and counted from my records and we have had 4 dry slots. Now with that being said; this storm is the only one that has produced significant weather for my area. 50 days back was Jan 18th/19th I picked up 6.5" of snow. 100 days back Nov. 28th/29th I picked up rain changing to ice. We shall see what it brings this time around. Lots of time left for this thing to move back. Safe to say we will see some significant snows somewhere in the Central Plains next week. 

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39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best trends on the Euro for places further SSE. Heck, at this rate I may even miss out. Although I wouldn't be surprised if things trended further back south over the next few days with that high pressure in Canada hanging around.

trend-ecmwf_full-2023030412-f144.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.gif

Do I see two separate Low pressure centers?

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Oh Fargo, how art thou???  Gosh, they just keep on getting drilled.  Did they set a record yet for snowfall?  That potent PAC wave that tracked across the Upper MW on the 1st delivered a hefty amount of snow up north.  @MadtownHow did you do?  @Beltrami Island

Screen Shot 2023-03-04 at 6.18.15 AM.png

 

3:1 Upper MW Snowfall.png

Zilch. The only measurable snowfall Ive had since Dec 23 was 5" of super fluff over two days mid jan and a fluffy 2" on presidents day. Pretty frustrating watching southern and central mn getting hammered while I am looking at old crusty sun baked snow from the week of 40s in early Feb. 

 

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My snowcover looks to stick around for awhile as next week features highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s w/ the potential for another winterstorm by weeks end.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best trends on the Euro for places further SSE. Heck, at this rate I may even miss out. Although I wouldn't be surprised if things trended further back south over the next few days with that high pressure in Canada hanging around.

trend-ecmwf_full-2023030412-f144.prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.gif

I just posted a thread for that, it's part of a multi-day and multi-storm event!

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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6 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Yes I think I forgot to post on this side of the forum last night.. Ashland regional airport didn't quite hit severe winds, but it was strong enough to cause a couple bumps around 10pm at my place. I had no internet connection for around 90 minutes. 

Overall I don't think the Enhanced verified but the wind reports sure were scattered. 

It was windy in the apps today for sure. 😬 

 

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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After the Friday’s snowstorm that was mostly to the south and southeast of GR dropping from just a trace of snow at Muskegon to around 7” at Lansing. Yesterday was a very mile day a here in the GR area all the snow melted. The official HL here in GR was 47/26 there was 0.03” of rain fall late last night.  The day started with 2” on the ground at GRR. A half inch here in my yard, a trace at Muskegon and around 7” at Lansing. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY was 29. There is a lot or frost here this morning. For today the average H/L at GR is now up to 40/24 The record high of 68 was set in 1894 and again in 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1948. The record snow fall of 7.4” fell in 1999. There once again looks to be a mixed bag of precipitation in our area for later tonight and into Monday.

 

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Today and tomorrow should be above normal high temperatures with temps reaching the low 50's. Rain maybe mixed with some snow tomorrow night will start a trend toward cooler weather for the rest of the week. Some models hint at a major snowstorm arriving on Friday night into the weekend...but we have seen this movie before and it will likely change by game time.
The records for today: High 76 (1964) / Low 7 (1978) / Precipitation 2.26" (1920) / Snow 9.5" (1902)
image.png.bb05a28b11f564a043786dd0953e8251.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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The last two runs of the op Euro have abandoned the major cold mid-month.  Instead, it takes us back to the California storm train and pacific flow across the country.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some small thundershowers are moving through eastern Iowa this evening.  A nice cell just moved through and dropped some pea size hail.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A cell that just grazed by to the south dopped a bit of rain and hail, with hail that was up to a little larger than peas. Storms that have passed just to northwest were producing lightning about every 15- 20 seconds at one time. 

Oh BTW, hardly worth mentioning, but I did receive 0.02" of rain yesterday forenoon and another 0.02" this evening. 

 

Edited by Sparky
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9 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The last two runs of the op Euro have abandoned the major cold mid-month.  Instead, it takes us back to the California storm train and pacific flow across the country.

That's good to hear since I'm in spring mode anyway. Lots of spring birds around and tulips are popping through the soil so they'll appreciate less cold as well. 

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Our third thunderstorm just dropped more pea size hail.  Pretty decent early March evening.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I read today's WGN Weather Blog and they posted some interesting stats on our Met Winter stats.  The winners and losers are evident.  Our friends up north in C MN take the prize @james1976 @MNTonka @St Paul Stormand the rest of the MN crew!  Doesn't that ribbon of 175% sorta look like a "Check Mark"?  Check please!

 

WGN Midwest_GL's Snowfall Total %.webp

WGN City Snowfall Departures.webp

 

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The above chart ignores any snow that fell before December (and so far in March). For the entire winter Topeka is running at 36.7% of normal to date (5.8/15.8) and would not be over 50% even for that time period (meteorological winter). The point is the disparities for the entire season are actually worse than shown for some areas.

ETA: purple chart posted by @Tom.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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10 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

The above chart ignores any snow that fell before December (and so far in March). For the entire winter Topeka is running at 36.7% of normal to date (5.8/15.8) and would not be over 50% even for that time period (meteorological winter). The point is the disparities for the entire season are actually worse than shown for some areas.

Yup, I see what your saying, I'm sure there are other cities that are far worse than 50% of normal in that highlighted zone.  

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Euro Seasonal came in and is pretty much showing what the CFSv2 is suggesting....that battle zone in the Texarkana/S MW region could be en fuego!

image.png

 

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How about April?

image.png

 

image.png

 

Looks similar to the CanSIPS...

cansips_z500a_namer_2.png

 

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Winter looks like its over for KC, never really got going this year. Pattern still looks active, but, we will likely be on the warm side of the systems. With our really wet winter, grass is greening up and even growing on the warmer side of buildings. A great weather pattern this winter, just didn't have the cold to go with it. 

Beautiful 73 degrees yesterday in KC, although the wind was a problem.

More snow to our north over the next few weeks, right where it has been all season. Enjoy! 

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7 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Winter looks like its over for KC, never really got going this year. Pattern still looks active, but, we will likely be on the warm side of the systems. With our really wet winter, grass is greening up and even growing on the warmer side of buildings. A great weather pattern this winter, just didn't have the cold to go with it. 

Beautiful 73 degrees yesterday in KC, although the wind was a problem.

More snow to our north over the next few weeks, right where it has been all season. Enjoy! 

73F sounds amazing!  St Patty's weekend looks ugly up this way and nasso nice.  I think your area will be very active once the warmth clashes with the troughs coming off the Rockies.  Should be an active Spring for sure.

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North Texas will have 2 days of rain Mon & Tue. Low 70’s.  
It’s great to get this much needed rain.

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Every year I've been here the models always struggle with the end of winter. For there start of March there's almost always a huge snow storm 5+ days out and there's almost always a turn to cold temps 4+ days out, but it never shows up and it ends up disappointing, just getting pushed back further and further. The models all wuss out when it gets under 4 or 5 days and the local forecasts always keep pushing the cold back further and further as snow totals drop.

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8 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Every year I've been here the models always struggle with the end of winter. For there start of March there's almost always a huge snow storm 5+ days out and there's almost always a turn to cold temps 4+ days out, but it never shows up and it ends up disappointing, just getting pushed back further and further. The models all wuss out when it gets under 4 or 5 days and the local forecasts always keep pushing the cold back further and further as snow totals drop.

It's also 5-10 degrees warmer than computer model forecast if the sun comes out.  At least in Michigan this time of year.  If it's forecast for 42 and sun, I'll get to about 50.  Just like yesterday.  Much warmer than forecasted.    

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3 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

gfs_asnow_ncus_65.png

My bad, winter may not be over...the GFS has 6-23 inches from east to west across the city St. Patty's Weekend. Tom, it certainly looks stormy next weekend right around the parade. LRC suggests so too

Isn’t this the same model that had us getting 30 inches this weekend but 2 days later showing rain and 50?

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49 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Isn’t this the same model that had us getting 30 inches this weekend but 2 days later showing rain and 50?

The models always struggle very badly this time of year. Just enjoy it as entertainment and if it actually happens be extremely grateful.

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

I didn't do another measurement but eyeballing maybe another inch so im thinking 4.5-5" here total. Snow is stuck to everything although it has melted some.

After going out to snowblow and shovel I'm thinking closer to 6". There was a solid 5 on the driveway and that hadn't been touched since the beginning of the event and there was definitely some compaction and melting.

It's been quite the winter up here. Every time we lose some of our snow depth we get it right back.

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A few days ago models had a temp well into the 50s today.  This morning the NWS had it down to 48, but even that was too high.  We've been stuck in the low to mid 40s with clouds and a cold wind.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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