March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[hawkstwelve]

Trend gif of past four EPS runs. Pretty nice jump on the latest 12z run.

[mlgamer]

18z GFS has 0" of snow for me at 240 hrs after the 12z run had 30.9". That's pretty crazy even for the GFS...lol

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 Wednesday through Friday (Winter Storm System)... Forecast models came into better agreement today regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall next Wednesday through Thursday night. The 12Z run of the GFS is overdoing snowfall and I`m sure people will see those pictures starting to circulate across the Internet. However, it is concerning that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble average are indicating significant moisture with this system given the below freezing temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF average is around 1 inch of QPF, while the 12Z GFS is a bit lower at 0.50-0.75 inches. Most ensemble solutions are currently giving our forecast area at least a few inches of snow and some are outright dumping warning level snow on us. This is still way to far out there to get overly excited, but will certainly need to keep an eye on this next storm system. Most of the snow with this system would be a broad swath of warm air advection snow over the surface cold layer, which usually brings heavier snow to a larger area if the vertical profile remains cold enough. Keep an eye on this one.

[OmahaSnowFan]

See, the GFS already has me back down to 6”.

Meanwhile Aberdeen SD gets 88”.

[Black Hole]

We had the moderate risk here in eastern OK a few days ago and basically nothing happened. We had another moderate over the SE part of the state yesterday. I got about 3/4" of rain at my place but all the severe weather was to the south. I ended up having to work a 12 hour shift which is why severe weather isn't as fun as a nice snow lol. We had a few stations get over 4" of rain putting  a few stations above flood stage. 

Looks quiet for a few days but definitely a pretty wet pattern setting up starting Tuesday. 

[Black Hole]

While it's difficult to say how things will turn out for the small scale stuff, there is no question this is the best chance for some action in the southern Plains in quite some time. It's also very different from much of the weather we've seen all winter, so don't assume the same trends you've seen all winter will necessary apply.

This is perfect the way the Pacific Ridge merges with the SSW induced Greenland High and forces that upper level low south. It takes all the cold with it. This FINALLY puts a big area of cold high pressure east of the Rockies in Canada...which then starts to shove on south. 

I don't know if the storm track will be over me or furthe r north (some ensembles show this), but some of us are going to get a lot of snow and its definitely going to be cold. Probably much colder than models say right now too. Lots of potential here! 

[ATW]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

 

0z EPS...

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

 

I don’t trust any map even up to the event. Models have been atrocious. 

[hawkstwelve]

Big jump on the 00z GEM.

[hawkstwelve]

00z GEFS also with a pretty large jump.

[hawkstwelve]

Not a surprise the 01z NBM is picking up those changes.

Pretty marked improvement among some models tonight. Too bad we are still 4-6 days out. Way too far to mean that much at this point.

[Money]

Euro 

[westMJim]

Half Inch Snowstorm

Yesterday’s snowstorm dropped about a half inch here in MBY. According to the official snow fall report for Grand Rapids the snow fall amount for yesterday was 2.0” for the season Grand Rapids is now up to 88.8” At Lansing the snow fall amount there was a record 6.5” At Muskegon no snow fall was recorded. To the east at Detroit their snow fall amount was a record 6.2” it was a record 4.9” at Flint and also a reported record of 2.5” at Saginaw. Like I said not sure how much fell here at my house but there is only around a half inch on the ground. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/28 there was 0.10” of precipitation that led to that 2.0” of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. The overnight low here was 24 but it has now gone up to 29. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 39/24 the record high of 66 was recorded in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948 and todays record snow fall amount is 8.0” set in 1900.

This past meteorological winter was only the 4th  time in recorded history at Grand Rapids that each of the 3 winter months the mean was 30 or better. The others are the winter of 1920/21, 1931/32 and 2001/02. This pas winter was the warmest at Grand Rapids since the winter of 2011/12 and will be the 3rd  warmest in this century. The warmest winter in this century so far in 2001/02 with a mean of 31.57. In 2011/12 the mean was 31.47 and the mean for this year is 30.87. The all time record warmest winter is the winter of 1931/32 with a mean of 33.9. This past met winter there was 58.8” of snow at Grand Rapids,  31.8” at Lansing and 40.5” at Muskegon Grand Rapids and Lansing were a little below average but Muskegon was much below average. There was 1” or more of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids on just 36 days. 58 is average. At Lansing there was 1’ or more on the ground on only 29 days, 56 is average and at Muskegon the number was 37 days with 58 the average there.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Half Inch Snowstorm

Yesterday’s snowstorm dropped about a half inch here in MBY. According to the official snow fall report for Grand Rapids the snow fall amount for yesterday was 2.0” for the season Grand Rapids is now up to 88.8” At Lansing the snow fall amount there was a record 6.5” At Muskegon no snow fall was recorded. To the east at Detroit their snow fall amount was a record 6.2” it was a record 4.9” at Flint and also a reported record of 2.5” at Saginaw. Like I said not sure how much fell here at my house but there is only around a half inch on the ground. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 34/28 there was 0.10” of precipitation that led to that 2.0” of snow fall. There was no sunshine yesterday. The overnight low here was 24 but it has now gone up to 29. For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 39/24 the record high of 66 was recorded in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948 and todays record snow fall amount is 8.0” set in 1900.

This past meteorological winter was only the 4th  time in recorded history at Grand Rapids that each of the 3 winter months the mean was 30 or better. The others are the winter of 1920/21, 1931/32 and 2001/02. This pas winter was the warmest at Grand Rapids since the winter of 2011/12 and will be the 3rd  warmest in this century. The warmest winter in this century so far in 2001/02 with a mean of 31.57. In 2011/12 the mean was 31.47 and the mean for this year is 30.87. The all time record warmest winter is the winter of 1931/32 with a mean of 33.9. This past met winter there was 58.8” of snow at Grand Rapids,  31.8” at Lansing and 40.5” at Muskegon Grand Rapids and Lansing were a little below average but Muskegon was much below average. There was 1” or more of snow on the ground at Grand Rapids on just 36 days. 58 is average. At Lansing there was 1’ or more on the ground on only 29 days, 56 is average and at Muskegon the number was 37 days with 58 the average there.

Love the title "Half Inch Snowstorm"...boy, the "hav's and have nots" with this storm made a lot of ppl go crazy!  BTW, how is your recovery?  Fully yet?  Thanks for posting all the data that you do every single day.

[Tom]

Oh Fargo, how art thou???  Gosh, they just keep on getting drilled.  Did they set a record yet for snowfall?  That potent PAC wave that tracked across the Upper MW on the 1st delivered a hefty amount of snow up north.  @MadtownHow did you do?  @Beltrami Island

 

[Tom]

Nice and DEEP Upper MW Glacier....I'm really both intrigued and fascinated how this pattern has been soo dang relentless since NOV of last year.  How long till it melt is the question???  hmmm

 

Yet another round of Mod/Heavy snow is lining up for you guys up north... @james1976 @Madtown

[Tom]

0z EPS continues to advertise the "look" of a powerful Bowling Ball...Could this become a Classic?  It appears that the signals continue to grow stronger as many of the variables are lining up just right to produce a Long Lasting, SLOW moving Coast-to-Coast March Winter Storm.

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

2023 is off to a very wet start.  After last year I don't think anyone will complain.

 

NWS Kansas City

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

 

Yesterday, Kansas City picked up 0.60" of rain bringing us to 5.40" on the year which is good enough for the 9th wettest year on record through 3/3. A brief light shower will be possible this morning but otherwise we are not expecting to add to this total until Tuesday night.

[gimmesnow]

20 hours ago, GDR said:

I know this is a silly run but the way that finger of no snow reaches exactly to cascade mountain actually kind of makes me mad.

[gimmesnow]

20 hours ago, GDR said:

I know this is a silly run but the way that finger of no snow reaches exactly to cascade mountain actually kind of makes me mad.

[Phil]

Got stuck under a mountain wave for ~ 30 minutes this AM and had multiple ~ 60mph gusts during that window. Has quieted substantially since then.

Weather station read 52mph but it’s obstructed by trees.

[Phil]

Nearing hurricane force in the Appalachians.

 

[Tom]

@Timmy Supercell Did you get hit with strong winds yesterday from non-storms?  I saw Eddyville recorded 82mph wind gusts yesterday!  

[Andie]

On 3/1/2023 at 12:30 PM, Tom said:

Gosh, if I hadn’t of baked some chicken the other day, I’d be soo grilling right now out on the deck!  

Oh heck Tom. We grill in the snow in Texas.   Keep the Bar B goin!

[CentralNebWeather]

Very surprising that NWS Hastings would put this out already, knowing how they are known to wait as long as possible to start advertising a storm. 

 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Timmy Supercell Did you get hit with strong winds yesterday from non-storms?  I saw Eddyville recorded 82mph wind gusts yesterday!  

Yes I think I forgot to post on this side of the forum last night.. Ashland regional airport didn't quite hit severe winds, but it was strong enough to cause a couple bumps around 10pm at my place. I had no internet connection for around 90 minutes. 

Overall I don't think the Enhanced verified but the wind reports sure were scattered. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

No wonder the GFS is trending away from any big snow here next week and cutting the system now.

SER blossoming AGAIN.

[westMJim]

The new snow that fell yesterday is now mostly gone. There is still some in the shade and the old snow/ice areas are still there. There is still that left over snow/ice in the woods here but outside of the woods there is mostly bare ground. At the current time it is 43 here with nice sunshine.

[westMJim]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

BTW, how is your recovery?  Fully yet?

I am mostly "recovered" I have done a few walks and with the sun out will do one today. I still have what is now a slight cough that comes and goes but is much better than it was. My wife on the other while she feel better still has a cough that is worse at night.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I am mostly "recovered" I have done a few walks and with the sun out will do one today. I still have what is now a slight cough that comes and goes but is much better than it was. My wife on the other while she feel better still has a cough that is worse at night.

I Hope that both of you recover quickly…thanks for the update.

[mlgamer]

17 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

No wonder the GFS is trending away from any big snow here next week and cutting the system now.

SER blossoming AGAIN.

Yep. Models have already locked onto what we have seen all winter. Just more of the same.

[westMJim]

With a seasonal snow fall total now at 88.8" the question is now can Grand Rapids reach 100" this winter season. The next 3 weeks will tell. Daytime snow events will become harder to have now. But we sure can still get nighttime snow events yet and that can be the case up to the 1st half of April.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[winterfreak]

Stick a fork in it. A copy and paste of every other storm this winter.

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro looking snowy for the Northern Plains.

[OmahaSnowFan]

6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro looking snowy for the Northern Plains.

There goes the Euro north too.

[hawkstwelve]

Not the best trends on the Euro for places further SSE. Heck, at this rate I may even miss out. Although I wouldn't be surprised if things trended further back south over the next few days with that high pressure in Canada hanging around.

[gabel23]

The amount of dry slots we have had here in Eastern Nebraska is unreal. I went back and counted from my records and we have had 4 dry slots. Now with that being said; this storm is the only one that has produced significant weather for my area. 50 days back was Jan 18th/19th I picked up 6.5" of snow. 100 days back Nov. 28th/29th I picked up rain changing to ice. We shall see what it brings this time around. Lots of time left for this thing to move back. Safe to say we will see some significant snows somewhere in the Central Plains next week. 

[uticasnow]

39 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best trends on the Euro for places further SSE. Heck, at this rate I may even miss out. Although I wouldn't be surprised if things trended further back south over the next few days with that high pressure in Canada hanging around.

Do I see two separate Low pressure centers?

[Beltrami Island]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Oh Fargo, how art thou???  Gosh, they just keep on getting drilled.  Did they set a record yet for snowfall?  That potent PAC wave that tracked across the Upper MW on the 1st delivered a hefty amount of snow up north.  @MadtownHow did you do?  @Beltrami Island

 

Zilch. The only measurable snowfall Ive had since Dec 23 was 5" of super fluff over two days mid jan and a fluffy 2" on presidents day. Pretty frustrating watching southern and central mn getting hammered while I am looking at old crusty sun baked snow from the week of 40s in early Feb. 

 

[Niko]

My snowcover looks to stick around for awhile as next week features highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s w/ the potential for another winterstorm by weeks end.

[uticasnow]

17 minutes ago, Niko said:

My snowcover looks to stick around for awhile as next week features highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s w/ the potential for another winterstorm by weeks end.

Alot of the snow is melting away today....

[Iceresistance]

I don't like this

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Iceresistance]

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Not the best trends on the Euro for places further SSE. Heck, at this rate I may even miss out. Although I wouldn't be surprised if things trended further back south over the next few days with that high pressure in Canada hanging around.

I just posted a thread for that, it's part of a multi-day and multi-storm event!

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Yes I think I forgot to post on this side of the forum last night.. Ashland regional airport didn't quite hit severe winds, but it was strong enough to cause a couple bumps around 10pm at my place. I had no internet connection for around 90 minutes. 

Overall I don't think the Enhanced verified but the wind reports sure were scattered. 

It was windy in the apps today for sure.  

 

[westMJim]

After the Friday’s snowstorm that was mostly to the south and southeast of GR dropping from just a trace of snow at Muskegon to around 7” at Lansing. Yesterday was a very mile day a here in the GR area all the snow melted. The official HL here in GR was 47/26 there was 0.03” of rain fall late last night.  The day started with 2” on the ground at GRR. A half inch here in my yard, a trace at Muskegon and around 7” at Lansing. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY was 29. There is a lot or frost here this morning. For today the average H/L at GR is now up to 40/24 The record high of 68 was set in 1894 and again in 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1948. The record snow fall of 7.4” fell in 1999. There once again looks to be a mixed bag of precipitation in our area for later tonight and into Monday.

 

[Clinton]

Great day to get some vitamin D.  I should make a run into the lower 70s today but a bit breezy.

 

[chescowxman]

Today and tomorrow should be above normal high temperatures with temps reaching the low 50's. Rain maybe mixed with some snow tomorrow night will start a trend toward cooler weather for the rest of the week. Some models hint at a major snowstorm arriving on Friday night into the weekend...but we have seen this movie before and it will likely change by game time.

The records for today: High 76 (1964) / Low 7 (1978) / Precipitation 2.26" (1920) / Snow 9.5" (1902)

[james1976]

I'm in a WWA for 1-3" of snow. Not sure that validates an advisory especially for MN. Maybe it's the 30mph wind gusts.

[james1976]

I was in IA last couple days and it was in the upper 40s and no snow OTG. Got me really thinking spring. I come back up to MN last night and the snow cover is still quite deep and now looking like more on the way over the next week.