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March 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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32" on the ground and snowing 2" an hour--- top 5 I've seen for a CWO reporting snow depth ever. 

For those don't know- most airports don't report this --- "SNINCR 2/32"  It's manual- and takes a human-- not automated like 90% of sites.   2 inches last hour with 32" on the  ground.

Amazing.

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]
METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

32" on the ground and snowing 2" an hour--- top 5 I've seen for a CWO reporting snow depth ever. 

For those don't know- most airports don't report this --- "SNINCR 2/32"  It's manual- and takes a human-- not automated like 90% of sites.   2 inches last hour with 32" on the  ground.

Amazing.

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]
METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007

That's just pretty darn awesome. 

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Just got woken up by a thunderstorm. Did not expect.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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March Madness in the wx dept shall continue as we enter the 1st full week of March.  @Madtownwill keep adding to his glacier this Sun/Mon...

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

Then, the attn turns towards the Heartland of this Great Nation....I'll say this, the post 8th period will satisfy a lot of our snow enthusiasts on here and get their "snow fix" out of the way as the snow season slowly goes away.  Winter's Fury will literally bury some of you out west and in the MW.  Is a "Memorable March" in the cards?  It's def shaping up to be an interesting ride next week!

 

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Today may be the warmest day through at least March 20th. Today we should see temps well into the 50's. Normal temps for the 1st week of March are in the mid to upper 40's across the County. We should see some much needed rain come Friday into Friday night with over an inch of rain possible. Through yesterday we are over 2 inches below normal in water equivalent precipitation this year...much of course due to our snow drought. We should see well below normal temperatures return by the middle of next week and may last for at least 10 days with even some snow chances before the end of the month. March has had some of our largest snowstorms in Chester County especially across the more elevated terrain as I will show later in a detail of some memorable late season snowstorms.
 
Records for today: High 75 (1972) / Low 8 (1950) / Precipitation 1.18" (1994) / Snow 10.0" (1914)
image.png.8baf449d68a079d14a84d6a3f6a610c1.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

March Madness in the wx dept shall continue as we enter the 1st full week of March.  @Madtownwill keep adding to his glacier this Sun/Mon...

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

Then, the attn turns towards the Heartland of this Great Nation....I'll say this, the post 8th period will satisfy a lot of our snow enthusiasts on here and get their "snow fix" out of the way as the snow season slowly goes away.  Winter's Fury will literally bury some of you out west and in the MW.  Is a "Memorable March" in the cards?  It's def shaping up to be an interesting ride next week!

 

image.gif

image.png

NWS Hastings already talking snow for next week @Tomwhich is very early for them, they usually always side cautiously in something that far away.  

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

JMA Weeklies have certainly gone All-In on the cold and likely plenty of Snow opportunities.  Ground Hog was definitely on point.

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Week 2...Temp and Precip

Screen Shot 2023-03-02 at 6.01.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-03-02 at 6.01.21 AM.png

 

Week 3-4...Temp and Precip

Screen Shot 2023-03-02 at 6.02.09 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-03-02 at 6.02.18 AM.png

 

Tom, that storm you have been talking about for some time between March 8th and 11th is on the table. Who will cash in on some late season snow???

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Yesterday was a mild 1st day of March with an official H/L of 47/30 at Grand Rapids. There was a reported trace of snow fall and there was a trace of snow/ice on the ground. The sun was out 22% of the time. For today the average H/L is now up to 39/23 so highs of 40 or better are now common. The record high of 60 was set in 1931 and 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1978. The biggest snow fall of 13.6” fell in 2002. Now all eyes will see how the Friday system plays out.

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Well we did it, a t'storm last night burst our dome bubble in Ashland. (we went nearly 2 months without a thunder while others have had them in February..)

For the first of March, I thought the lightning frequency was pretty decent. Flashing every 15-20 seconds.

Friday evening looks even bigger. The Slgt Risk area is not very far from me on the latest SPC maps.

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  • Storm 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, that storm you have been talking about for some time between March 8th and 11th is on the table. Who will cash in on some late season snow???

From your area and points W & N....that's my gut feeling ATM...it could actually end up becoming a bonafide CO Bowling Bal Low... 

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18 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Right now, March temps are predicted to be slightly below normal in KC.  KC hasn't had a month end up with below normal average temps since April 2022, when we ended at -0.8.  Out of the last 24 months, KC has had a whopping 3 months that ended up below normal.  Those three months averaged 1.1 degree below normal -- so even our cold months were just barely cold.  

Not arguing the fact of only 3 months, but, if you go back and look at several of those months, they were actually colder then what the final mean temps were. For example, last March and April were super chilly and down right cold at times. I coach youth baseball and we froze our butts off the first 5-6 tournaments. Played many games in April in the 30's. Did the same in 2021. La Nina winters are usually colder springs....which nobody wants. Also, look at last March and April, even know the mean temp was above average, 15-20 days were actually below average highs for each month.

Hoping for different results this March and April, but according to Tom and the data, we are in for more winter like temps come March 8th and after.  

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The months are more mixed up out here. 3 out of the final 4 months of 2022 had cool departures. Well, September was fairly close to normal at only -0.5, so maybe 2 legitimate cool months but still!

Sep 2022: -0.5
Oct 2022: -3.6
Nov 2022: +1.3
Dec 2022: -1.3

Similarly, April was a cool month as well in the middle of a few marginally warm months, with a -1.7 in Ashland that month. I wouldn't really call any of 2022 a "torch". There wasn't anything last year even close to the level of Dec 2021 or Jan 2023.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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They upgraded tomorrow's risk areas, and added an Enhanced boundary into central KY.

The Slight also covers me now going into WV.

20230302-2dayoutlk.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 26
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 5/15, 5/21, 5/22, 5/26, 5/27, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event.
As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester. image.thumb.png.da002aac77b9c7649b6e32e9a993f02e.png
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All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Top 25 March Snowstorms for Western Chester County Pa

image.png.8098c546731e93cac65b7f36ae271ff5.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Top 25 March Snowstorms for Western Chester County Pa

image.png.8098c546731e93cac65b7f36ae271ff5.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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31 minutes ago, chescowxman said:
While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event.
As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester. image.thumb.png.da002aac77b9c7649b6e32e9a993f02e.png

What a crazy system.  Ive read about that often.   Similar  to the  palm sunday 1942?

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It stays BN until about mid March or so. Yikes. Highs barely get outta the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I heard the Sierra MTN' are running 200% + normal in the moisture dept as we closed out MET Winter.  I'm sure the 5-12 FEET of Snow helped out!  

Screen Shot 2023-03-03 at 6.02.20 AM.png

 

Not only for the Sierra MTN's, but parts of the Wasatch MTN's and CO Rockies are having a record season of Snowfall and this pattern is going to keep on delivering now through April IMHO.  We are prob going to see snow records smashed when all sudden done.  Thank you Mother Nature!

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Well it looks like the word of the day is uncertainty more on that later. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 40/29 there was a trace of rain fall with no snow reported. For the day there was just 6 minutes of sunshine good for just 1%. The overnight low here in MBY was 26 but now has got up to 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 39/23. Today is the 1st day of the year when it has reached 70 or better with the record high of 72 in 1983 it also reached 71 in 1974. The record low of -9 was set in 1943 and the record snow fall amount of 5.0” was in 2007.  For today it looks like there is a new reason for the term “March Madness” as the snow fall forecast according to this morning’s model runs at Grand Rapids this is from the GR discussion “AT MANY LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SHARP   
GRADIENT OF ACCUMULATION THAT IS SITUATED IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST OF  
THE HEAVIEST MEDIAN-SNOWFALL AXIS. AT GRAND RAPIDS, FOR EXAMPLE,   
THE EPS 25TH/75TH PERCENTILES (USING 10:1 SLR) ARE APPROXIMATELY   
6"/13", WITH MIN/MAX MEMBERS OF 1"/17". THIS IS FAIRLY REMARKABLE   
FOR SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.”

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20 minutes ago, Tom said:

For amusement purposes ONLY...Nature want to go backwards??  What is this....a JAN snowfall map???  #MemorableMarch

Euro Weeklies...

 

image.png

image.png

 

image.png

 

Could it be, the best chance of accumulating snow all winter in KC is yet to come??????

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

1.png

 

0z EPS...

1.gif

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

2.gif

 

Just get us 1 good storm buddy even if it doesn't stay around it would still be nice.

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What the hell is going on at accuweather? They were calling for 2-4 when I went to bed when none of the models supported it. When we had that rain storm, they called for 3-6 up in Portage before the rain too and it never happened, models weren't supporting it either. I'm not complaining about not getting the snow, last weeks' snowboard trip was one of the best time snowboarding in Wisconsin I ever had. But I find it so odd they keep completely blowing their "wintercast" so hard.


EDIT: also lol

gfs_asnow24_us_39.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

For amusement purposes ONLY...Nature want to go backwards??  What is this....a JAN snowfall map???  #MemorableMarch

Euro Weeklies...

 

image.png

image.png

 

image.png

 

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

 

Could it be, the best chance of accumulating snow all winter in KC is yet to come??????

I've been out of the game the game this week, trying to get back at it from elbow surgery.  This looks like a well timed dip in the AO and NAO for next weeks storm.

1677823200-FZ2NsZObnV0grb2.png

1677823200-YcJyr1Nl5vcgrb2.png

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

I've been out of the game the game this week, trying to get back at it from elbow surgery.  This looks like a well timed dip in the AO and NAO for next weeks storm.

1677823200-FZ2NsZObnV0grb2.png

1677823200-YcJyr1Nl5vcgrb2.png

Hope you recover completely before you gotta shovel some snow!  Haha, j/k...hope you get hit with at least one good one before the system season is out.

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