March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[MIKEKC]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

JMA Weeklies have certainly gone All-In on the cold and likely plenty of Snow opportunities.  Ground Hog was definitely on point.

 

 

Week 2...Temp and Precip

 

Week 3-4...Temp and Precip

 

Tom, that storm you have been talking about for some time between March 8th and 11th is on the table. Who will cash in on some late season snow???

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a mild 1^st day of March with an official H/L of 47/30 at Grand Rapids. There was a reported trace of snow fall and there was a trace of snow/ice on the ground. The sun was out 22% of the time. For today the average H/L is now up to 39/23 so highs of 40 or better are now common. The record high of 60 was set in 1931 and 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1978. The biggest snow fall of 13.6” fell in 2002. Now all eyes will see how the Friday system plays out.

[sumweatherdude]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

JMA Weeklies have certainly gone All-In on the cold and likely plenty of Snow opportunities.  Ground Hog was definitely on point.

 

 

Problem is, this time of year, high temps have to be 20 degrees below normal in KC for us to get snow.  Below normal temps are quickly becoming irrelevant around here when it comes to snow. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Well we did it, a t'storm last night burst our dome bubble in Ashland. (we went nearly 2 months without a thunder while others have had them in February..)

For the first of March, I thought the lightning frequency was pretty decent. Flashing every 15-20 seconds.

Friday evening looks even bigger. The Slgt Risk area is not very far from me on the latest SPC maps.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, MIKEKC said:

Tom, that storm you have been talking about for some time between March 8th and 11th is on the table. Who will cash in on some late season snow???

From your area and points W & N....that's my gut feeling ATM...it could actually end up becoming a bonafide CO Bowling Bal Low... 

[Stormy]

21 hours ago, Tom said:

Gosh, if I hadn’t of baked some chicken the other day, I’d be soo grilling right now out on the deck!  

It's was beautiful here as well and up to 57⁰, although a little breezy in p.m.

[MIKEKC]

18 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Right now, March temps are predicted to be slightly below normal in KC.  KC hasn't had a month end up with below normal average temps since April 2022, when we ended at -0.8.  Out of the last 24 months, KC has had a whopping 3 months that ended up below normal.  Those three months averaged 1.1 degree below normal -- so even our cold months were just barely cold.  

Not arguing the fact of only 3 months, but, if you go back and look at several of those months, they were actually colder then what the final mean temps were. For example, last March and April were super chilly and down right cold at times. I coach youth baseball and we froze our butts off the first 5-6 tournaments. Played many games in April in the 30's. Did the same in 2021. La Nina winters are usually colder springs....which nobody wants. Also, look at last March and April, even know the mean temp was above average, 15-20 days were actually below average highs for each month.

Hoping for different results this March and April, but according to Tom and the data, we are in for more winter like temps come March 8th and after.  

[Timmy Supercell]

The months are more mixed up out here. 3 out of the final 4 months of 2022 had cool departures. Well, September was fairly close to normal at only -0.5, so maybe 2 legitimate cool months but still!

Sep 2022: -0.5
Oct 2022: -3.6
Nov 2022: +1.3
Dec 2022: -1.3

Similarly, April was a cool month as well in the middle of a few marginally warm months, with a -1.7 in Ashland that month. I wouldn't really call any of 2022 a "torch". There wasn't anything last year even close to the level of Dec 2021 or Jan 2023.

[Timmy Supercell]

They upgraded tomorrow's risk areas, and added an Enhanced boundary into central KY.

The Slight also covers me now going into WV.

[chescowxman]

While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event.

As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester.

[chescowxman]

Top 25 March Snowstorms for Western Chester County Pa

[chescowxman]

Top 25 March Snowstorms for Western Chester County Pa

[OttumwaSnomow]

31 minutes ago, chescowxman said:

While March is the month that Spring begins it still brings wintry weather. While we only average about 6" of snow here in Chester County during March, we have had some of the largest storms we have ever experienced during this month. Below is the top 25 storms as recorded at Coatesville. You will note the March 18-20, 1958 storm is at the top of the list at 19" but in reality that figure was one of the lowest snow totals. This had everything to do with the changes in elevation in the County. The observations in Coatesville were taken at an elevation around 350 feet above sea level. Every 100 feet or so in additional elevation made a huge difference in snow totals. The modest increase in elevation reduced the temps just enough to produce a very heavy wet snow accumulation. This was due to temperatures at just about freezing through the entire event.

As you can see in the NWS snow total map they produced back in 1958 there was a large zone of 30" to 40" and more of snow across Northwest Chester County and Southeast Berks County. This is due to elevations across much of NW Chesco at between 600ft to as much as 900 feet above sea level. In fact just across the border from here in NW Chester County at Morgantown they recorded the greatest snowfall in the history of Southeast PA with an incredible 50" of snow. The greatest officially reported total in Chester County was the 49" at Devault. Other notable amounts included the 40" at West Grove and the 36" of snow in West Chester.

What a crazy system.  Ive read about that often.   Similar  to the  palm sunday 1942?

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

01z Blend. 

[Niko]

It stays BN until about mid March or so. Yikes. Highs barely get outta the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s.

[clintbeed1993]

6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

01z Blend. 

NWS blend literally just had the entire area in central Nebraska getting 4-6 inches from this current system and look how that went. What a joke. Wouldn't trust any of these models a week out

[Tom]

I heard the Sierra MTN' are running 200% + normal in the moisture dept as we closed out MET Winter.  I'm sure the 5-12 FEET of Snow helped out!  

 

Not only for the Sierra MTN's, but parts of the Wasatch MTN's and CO Rockies are having a record season of Snowfall and this pattern is going to keep on delivering now through April IMHO.  We are prob going to see snow records smashed when all sudden done.  Thank you Mother Nature!

[Tom]

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

 

0z EPS...

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

 

[westMJim]

Well it looks like the word of the day is uncertainty more on that later. The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 40/29 there was a trace of rain fall with no snow reported. For the day there was just 6 minutes of sunshine good for just 1%. The overnight low here in MBY was 26 but now has got up to 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 39/23. Today is the 1st day of the year when it has reached 70 or better with the record high of 72 in 1983 it also reached 71 in 1974. The record low of -9 was set in 1943 and the record snow fall amount of 5.0” was in 2007.  For today it looks like there is a new reason for the term “March Madness” as the snow fall forecast according to this morning’s model runs at Grand Rapids this is from the GR discussion “AT MANY LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SHARP   
GRADIENT OF ACCUMULATION THAT IS SITUATED IMMEDIATELY NORTHWEST OF  
THE HEAVIEST MEDIAN-SNOWFALL AXIS. AT GRAND RAPIDS, FOR EXAMPLE,   
THE EPS 25TH/75TH PERCENTILES (USING 10:1 SLR) ARE APPROXIMATELY   
6"/13", WITH MIN/MAX MEMBERS OF 1"/17". THIS IS FAIRLY REMARKABLE   
FOR SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD.”

[Tom]

For amusement purposes ONLY...Nature want to go backwards??  What is this....a JAN snowfall map???  #MemorableMarch

Euro Weeklies...

 

 

[MIKEKC]

20 minutes ago, Tom said:

For amusement purposes ONLY...Nature want to go backwards??  What is this....a JAN snowfall map???  #MemorableMarch

Euro Weeklies...

 

 

 

Could it be, the best chance of accumulating snow all winter in KC is yet to come??????

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

 

0z EPS...

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

 

Just get us 1 good storm buddy even if it doesn't stay around it would still be nice.

[gimmesnow]

What the hell is going on at accuweather? They were calling for 2-4 when I went to bed when none of the models supported it. When we had that rain storm, they called for 3-6 up in Portage before the rain too and it never happened, models weren't supporting it either. I'm not complaining about not getting the snow, last weeks' snowboard trip was one of the best time snowboarding in Wisconsin I ever had. But I find it so odd they keep completely blowing their "wintercast" so hard.

EDIT: also lol

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

For amusement purposes ONLY...Nature want to go backwards??  What is this....a JAN snowfall map???  #MemorableMarch

Euro Weeklies...

 

 

 

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

 

Could it be, the best chance of accumulating snow all winter in KC is yet to come??????

I've been out of the game the game this week, trying to get back at it from elbow surgery.  This looks like a well timed dip in the AO and NAO for next weeks storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS going wild with the storm in the Central Plains later next week.  

[GDR]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS going wild with the storm in the Central Plains later next week.  

Nebraska gets crushed!

[sumweatherdude]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

 

0z EPS...

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

 

Haha.  I was looking just now.  I'm very torn.  I'm supposed to drive with my family to Breckenridge on either 3/11 or 3/12 depending on weather.  Our first hotel night is 3/12.  This would kind of be a disaster for us.  I'm worried we'd have to leave early, and then I'd miss the snow.  Or we'd leave late and miss a day of skiing.  Ugh . . . 

 

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just for fun, check out the 12Z GFS snowfall map for Nebraska and the Central Plains next week.  It has me at close to 50". 

[mlgamer]

[CentralNebWeather]

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

It will verify, we just have to believe.  

[GDR]

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

I've been out of the game the game this week, trying to get back at it from elbow surgery.  This looks like a well timed dip in the AO and NAO for next weeks storm.

Hope you recover completely before you gotta shovel some snow!  Haha, j/k...hope you get hit with at least one good one before the system season is out.

[Tom]

57 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Haha.  I was looking just now.  I'm very torn.  I'm supposed to drive with my family to Breckenridge on either 3/11 or 3/12 depending on weather.  Our first hotel night is 3/12.  This would kind of be a disaster for us.  I'm worried we'd have to leave early, and then I'd miss the snow.  Or we'd leave late and miss a day of skiing.  Ugh . . . 

 

 

 

I heard Breckenridge has had amazing winter.  Man, I feel ya bud, but either way you look at it, you'll see snow no matter what!  

[sumweatherdude]

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

I heard Breckenridge has had amazing winter.  Man, I feel ya bud, but either way you look at it, you'll see snow no matter what!  

Yup.  That's what my wife said too.  If we miss it in KC, I hope I'll see snow actually falling in CO.  The falling snow is the best part.  And honestly, if something like last night's Euro happens, that'd be perfect.  Still a lot of time to get the details right.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Clown maps are back!! Well I don’t know if they’ve ever really left

$20 bucks says Omaha doesn’t get more than 4” this month.

Any takers?

[Clinton]

41 minutes ago, sumweatherdude said:

Yup.  That's what my wife said too.  If we miss it in KC, I hope I'll see snow actually falling in CO.  The falling snow is the best part.  And honestly, if something like last night's Euro happens, that'd be perfect.  Still a lot of time to get the details right.

GEFS likes this storm.  I'm jealous that your going to Colorado I would vote leave early.  The Rockies during a snow storm are majestic!

[gabel23]

Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

[MIKEKC]

The 50-day cycle with this year's LRC would suggest that the data is right with a very active pattern starting next Wednesday and lasting a few weeks in the nation's midsection. IF you back to the second half of Jan. around 50days from Next Wednesday, you will see all the days we had storms. 

So, yes, it's going to be active next week, how far will the cold bleed and how strong will the disturbances/storms be?? The most recent runs of the EURO and GFS do suggest quite the cold pattern setting up mid next week. Should be some good set-ups for snow.

 

We'll know by March 25th who finished strong in the snow department. 

[CentralNebWeather]

17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

The amount of snowstorms/blizzards during the boys state basketball tournament over the years is lengthy.  Remember several where we drove in snowstorms or left early going or coming back to beat a storm.  I'm going down with my son after school on Thursday to watch the SemiFinals on Friday at Pinnacle Bank Arena. I'll be watching the weather very closely.  

[gabel23]

Pretty good write up by OAX today about the potential snow next week. 

The ensemble guidance is an interesting mix of confident and
unconfident regarding the potential for a significant winter
storm during the second half of next week. When you delve into the
guidance from the GEFS and EPS, the signal for a potentially
significant precipitation event in the Plains has remained
consistent. Model runs from both ensemble systems have been
advertising a precipitation event since February 27th.
Unfortunately both ensemble systems are really on the struggle bus
when it comes to the timing. These same timing disparities have
been evident in the deterministic runs of the ECMWF and GFS for
what they are worth at this time range. Hopefully these timing
issues will be resolved over the weekend as the trough out West
develops and becomes better resolved in the model initial
condition fields. With these factors in mind, forecaster
confidence in a widespread precipitation event in the Plains
during the second have of next week is on the higher end, while
confidence in the timing of that precipitation is low. For now our
forecast favors the model mean, and leans towards snow in eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa between next Thursday and Saturday.
Monitor the forecast closely going forward if your plans are
weather sensitive later next week.

[Tom]

2 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Well the Euro would pretty much crush everyone along I-80 from Nebraska to Ohio. I've seen this before; all major models showing something big and then as we get closer to the event it's a dud. Next weekend couldn't be any more worse for us in Nebraska; we have our boys state B-Ball tournament in Lincoln. I guess I'll get excited about a snowstorm for us when we are 12 hours out. 

This was a Signature storm and I'm sure it will be a Big time producer given the blocking and slow movement.  I see all the global ensembles are starting to come on board and even increasing the size of this system.  Cold Air will be prevalent and also the moisture.  It's all going to come down on track.  #MemorableMarch'23

12z EPS...

 

[Tom]

12z Euro Control.

 

[Stormy]

On 2/26/2023 at 7:34 PM, Sparky said:

Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 

Here's something I stumbled into again today which does show Iowa La Nina summers quite a bit warmer and dryer than average. You can set parameters for your state, town, time of year, etc, etc. 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=95&network=IACLIMATE&station=IA0000&month=6&months=3&lag=-1&h=none&year=2022&cmap=RdYlGn&_r=43&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[mlgamer]

18z GFS has 0" of snow for me at 240 hrs after the 12z run had 30.9". That's pretty crazy even for the GFS...lol

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

 Wednesday through Friday (Winter Storm System)... Forecast models came into better agreement today regarding the potential for accumulating snowfall next Wednesday through Thursday night. The 12Z run of the GFS is overdoing snowfall and I`m sure people will see those pictures starting to circulate across the Internet. However, it is concerning that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble average are indicating significant moisture with this system given the below freezing temperatures. The 12Z ECMWF average is around 1 inch of QPF, while the 12Z GFS is a bit lower at 0.50-0.75 inches. Most ensemble solutions are currently giving our forecast area at least a few inches of snow and some are outright dumping warning level snow on us. This is still way to far out there to get overly excited, but will certainly need to keep an eye on this next storm system. Most of the snow with this system would be a broad swath of warm air advection snow over the surface cold layer, which usually brings heavier snow to a larger area if the vertical profile remains cold enough. Keep an eye on this one.

[OmahaSnowFan]

See, the GFS already has me back down to 6”.

Meanwhile Aberdeen SD gets 88”.

[Black Hole]

We had the moderate risk here in eastern OK a few days ago and basically nothing happened. We had another moderate over the SE part of the state yesterday. I got about 3/4" of rain at my place but all the severe weather was to the south. I ended up having to work a 12 hour shift which is why severe weather isn't as fun as a nice snow lol. We had a few stations get over 4" of rain putting  a few stations above flood stage. 

Looks quiet for a few days but definitely a pretty wet pattern setting up starting Tuesday. 

[Black Hole]

While it's difficult to say how things will turn out for the small scale stuff, there is no question this is the best chance for some action in the southern Plains in quite some time. It's also very different from much of the weather we've seen all winter, so don't assume the same trends you've seen all winter will necessary apply.

This is perfect the way the Pacific Ridge merges with the SSW induced Greenland High and forces that upper level low south. It takes all the cold with it. This FINALLY puts a big area of cold high pressure east of the Rockies in Canada...which then starts to shove on south. 

I don't know if the storm track will be over me or furthe r north (some ensembles show this), but some of us are going to get a lot of snow and its definitely going to be cold. Probably much colder than models say right now too. Lots of potential here! 

[ATW]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

The post 8th storm is starting to show some signs of turning into to a possible slow moving Big Dog.  Just for fun...Best weenie map of the season...

 

0z EPS...

 

Don't put those shovels away @sumweatherdude @MIKEKC and even MAYBE our peeps down in Okie Land....Memorable March!

 

I don’t trust any map even up to the event. Models have been atrocious.