March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring?  Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action!  #beachtime

As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature.  This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month.  The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing.  It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 

 

0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO...

 

 

06z GFS...

 

This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month.  March Madness in the weather dept!

[Tom]

0z GEFS...

 

 

[Tom]

May I kindly ask, Where the heck were you in the Winter???  Monster -EPO in the works and should make it SNOW for a lot of peeps in the Heartland post 8th...

 

 

[Clinton]

6z GFS with a heck of a storm from my place up towards @ATW @Niko and @jaster220.  

6z GEFS looks great.  We may need a thread if the 12z models agree.

6z Euro Mean also coming around.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS with a heck of a storm from my place up towards @ATW @Niko and @jaster220.  

6z GEFS looks great.  We may need a thread if the 12z models agree.

6z Euro Mean also coming around.

This would be nice. The trend has not been our friend but I’ve lived in Missouri long enough to see some back loaded thumps. 

[jaster220]

@Tom @Clinton

Not only does long-term SEMI climo get snowier for March, this region has gone years without even an average March. All that to say that we're overdue. If you see my other post in February thread, I'm really ready more for spring than winter. Nonetheless, I don't get to choose ofc. This GEFS scenario has all the looks of a classic hit here. Maybe even an ORD to DTW special finally.

[Hoosier]

Storm next week sure looks interesting for somebody.

[Clinton]

12z GFS keeps the storm track close to the same, CMC and ICON are further south.

12z GEFS looks encouraging.

[Iceresistance]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year???  As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring?  Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action!  #beachtime

As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature.  This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month.  The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing.  It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook.  Let's discuss...

0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 

 

0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO...

 

 

06z GFS...

 

This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month.  March Madness in the weather dept!

What is wrong with the GFS image? It's messing my mind up!

[gimmesnow]

Man what's been up with these last few winters? December, January, and February have constantly been "everything's about to line up! just wait it's going to be epic!"  and then at the end of February and in March it all starts to line up. Way too late for any of it to matter.

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS keeps the storm track close to the same, CMC and ICON are further south.

Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so).

[Tom]

12z EPS just took a massive leap towards the GEFS…time to whip up a storm thread!  I’m out so anyone else that wants to go right ahead.

[Clinton]

58 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so).

Yes I just hope it's cold enough this time!

[Money]

Wagons north 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

12z EPS just took a massive leap towards the GEFS…time to whip up a storm thread!  I’m out so anyone else that wants to go right ahead.

@TomStarted one...ready to Rock N Roll.....

[KTPmidMO]

26 minutes ago, Niko said:

@TomStarted one...ready to Rock N Roll.....

Where did you start it? I'm not seeing it for some reason.

[Sparky]

Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, KTPmidMO said:

Where did you start it? I'm not seeing it for some reason.

It needs to be pinned by staff

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Sparky said:

Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 

Oh man Sparky, the entire State of Texas supports you on this!  We’re sick of it!

Edit:    Almost 11 pm and 71*. 
Forecast is 81* tomorrow.  Is this crazy or what?  
Oh, and fog.  

 

[Tom]

Woke up to the sound of a massive bolt of lighting that struck right at 3:45am....it literally shook me outta bed! Ahh, the sights and sounds of Spring are here...well, at least for today as we head up to hear 60F as the main low tracks nearly overhead around Noon.

[Tom]

Hmmm, some changes in the -PNA are showing up which will alleviate that pesky SER as we near the 8th-11th period where I anticipate a large scale storm to develop across the Heartland of our Great Nation.

 

0z EPS snow mean is fully onboard that its gonna continue to SNOW where those who have been missed...let's see, bc this pattern setting up is prob the most favorable and last time of the season to try and enjoy a snowfall for a few days before it melts away.

[Andie]

Talk about contrast. 

Texas Panhandle - This week, the region has been blanketed in a thick layer of dust kicked up by powerful winds that reached as high of 69 miles per hour. 

Then North Texas receives a thunderstorm and heavy rain and lightning last night. Something for everyone.  
We’ll reach 75 today and a low of 47. 
 

 

[Tom]

The Euro Weeklies from last night...let's just say, March will be an exciting month of weather for the central CONUS and the Heartland of the Nation.  Coast-to-Coast action along with MUCH satisfaction in the weather dept! 

It all begins as we open up the month tomorrow as a powerful trough "Rounds the Bend" of the west coast and into the SW region...

 

0z EPS....post 8th is when Winter Returns for the Central Plains/MW....you can give thanks to the stout -NAO/-EPO in tandem working together and Blocking up the wx pattern.  Buckle Up!

 

 

[Andie]

Round Two!   March will live up to the Lion entering the South and Southeast.  
Severe storms will strike E. Texas this week with a high of 83 today
Wednesday will see a 30%, then 70% chance of rain with Thursday giving us severe storms.  
The storms will likely intensify as they push east.  And the South will face threat of tornadoes again.  
Battening down this week!

Edit: It could get ugly. 
I’m expecting Twisters
 

[mlgamer]

As we move into March, Topeka is sitting at it's 3rd least snowiest winter over the past 25 years. Of course, that could change before the end of the season.

Five least snowiest winters in Topeka over the last 25 years:

• 11-12: 3.1"
• 15-16: 4.9"
• 22-23: 5.8"
• 16-17: 6.6"
• 17-18: 8.1"

(Also note that this list of five includes three consecutive winters: 15-16, 16-17, 17-18)

[james1976]

Scored another WWA for tonight-tomorrow. 3-5" expected 

[tStacsh]

Stupid Groundhog was right.  

[GDR]

That stupid ground hog is better than any weather model

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

However, there have been ensemble consistent trends for several
days (honest longer), that cooler weather will settle into the
area about mid-next week. Temperatures in day 7 will show signs
of slipping, but the colder air looks most likely to move in just
outside this 7-day forecast period. Below normal temperatures will
likely last at least a couple of weeks per long-term ensembles,
meaning the middle of March will have a more winter feel than
spring feel.

[Andie]

Our max today is 84*.  Just came in from outside and it's very dry air for us at 12%, wind at 8mph.Wednesday will be uneventful  30% chance of rain, maybe 6* cooler. 

However Thursday is the big dog.  Cooler air High 77* But wind will pick up to 25 as the little dog runs for East Texas. Big dog will catch up and the clash will result in some hail, high winds, possibility of tornadoes further east imo, but we aren't exempt.  I feel bad for those east of Texas as the moist southern air will clash with what I'm feeling out there right now.  Dry, somewhat suffocating air.  Way too early for this combo of dry air, heat, and a cold front.  Never a good sign down here.

On a positive note. The wild plums are blooming.  It's officially Spring!

 

[Madtown]

3-5" tomorrow.....keep er moving eh

[Tom]

0z EPS...Ol' Man Winter ain't giving up just yet..."Choo-Choo" Storm parade...post 8th is when many on here south of MN/SD will see it Snowing...welcoming daylight savings on the 12th in a Nasso Spring-like way... @Black Hole  @OKwx2k4@Iceresistance Could you guys in Okie land have one last hoorah???

 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Andie]

A 114 mph microburst struck Memphis, Tx. during the dust storm this week. I can’t imagine how that felt. I’ve been in a small one, but this must have been a blast furnace.  
Memphis is located in the SW corner of the Panhandle.  

[westMJim]

  Welcome to meteorological spring.   A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter.

For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015

[tStacsh]

42 minutes ago, westMJim said:

  Welcome to meteorological spring.   A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter.

For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015

Looking like another delayed spring for a few weeks at least.  At least below normal means low to mid 30's now.  

[hawkstwelve]

We've had some of the strongest winds we've ever had here (outside of some severe thunderstorms last spring) this morning. All due to this compact low that is currently situated over NE SD.

[Tom]

Heading up into the upper 50's this afternoon and there is bountiful sunshine out there this morning.  I could really get used to this!  

[Jaycee_CHI]

As a Cali native, this is absolutely amazing to see! I forgot it was possible for this area to be green and snow covered, so pretty!

 

 

Additionally, I was woken up around 1 am to the loudest clap(s) of thunder ever. All the car alarms were going off on my street, and I was able to get this next strike on video! I literally can’t wait for severe wx season, hoping I get some good pics this year with my new camera!  

 

 

 

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Exceptional drought now for Omaha. 

[Tom]

Gosh, if I hadn’t of baked some chicken the other day, I’d be soo grilling right now out on the deck!  

[Grizzcoat]

Duluth now challenging all time snow depth for the date.  29" at noon and still snowing hard. The 36" on at 12Z on the 2nd may be challenged.

KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083
KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083
KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002

 

[Grizzcoat]

32" on the ground and snowing 2" an hour--- top 5 I've seen for a CWO reporting snow depth ever. 

For those don't know- most airports don't report this --- "SNINCR 2/32"  It's manual- and takes a human-- not automated like 90% of sites.   2 inches last hour with 32" on the  ground.

Amazing.

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]

METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007

[sumweatherdude]

Right now, March temps are predicted to be slightly below normal in KC.  KC hasn't had a month end up with below normal average temps since April 2022, when we ended at -0.8.  Out of the last 24 months, KC has had a whopping 3 months that ended up below normal.  Those three months averaged 1.1 degree below normal -- so even our cold months were just barely cold.  

[OKwx2k4]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

32" on the ground and snowing 2" an hour--- top 5 I've seen for a CWO reporting snow depth ever. 

For those don't know- most airports don't report this --- "SNINCR 2/32"  It's manual- and takes a human-- not automated like 90% of sites.   2 inches last hour with 32" on the  ground.

Amazing.

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]

METAR: KDLH 012055Z 06014KT 1/4SM R09/3500V4500FT -SN BLSN VV012 M07/M09 A2982 RMK AO2 PK WND 04026/2003 SLP123 SNINCR 2/32 P0002 60006 T10671094 53007

That's just pretty darn awesome. 

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

That's just pretty darn awesome. 

It has been one heck of a run the past 10 days up this way!

[Phil]

Just got woken up by a thunderstorm. Did not expect.

[Tom]

Boy, the Sierra's have had a tremendous run this past week...my goodness, who would like to have experienced staying up in a Cabin and embracing this amount of snow???  144" 6-day total...Wowza!

 

[Tom]

March Madness in the wx dept shall continue as we enter the 1st full week of March.  @Madtownwill keep adding to his glacier this Sun/Mon...

 

Then, the attn turns towards the Heartland of this Great Nation....I'll say this, the post 8th period will satisfy a lot of our snow enthusiasts on here and get their "snow fix" out of the way as the snow season slowly goes away.  Winter's Fury will literally bury some of you out west and in the MW.  Is a "Memorable March" in the cards?  It's def shaping up to be an interesting ride next week!

 

[Tom]

JMA Weeklies have certainly gone All-In on the cold and likely plenty of Snow opportunities.  Ground Hog was definitely on point.

 

 

Week 2...Temp and Precip

 

Week 3-4...Temp and Precip