Tom Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year??? As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring? Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action! #beachtime As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature. This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month. The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing. It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook. Let's discuss... 0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO... 06z GFS... This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month. March Madness in the weather dept! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 0z GEFS... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 May I kindly ask, Where the heck were you in the Winter??? Monster -EPO in the works and should make it SNOW for a lot of peeps in the Heartland post 8th... 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 6z GFS with a heck of a storm from my place up towards @ATW @Niko and @jaster220. 6z GEFS looks great. We may need a thread if the 12z models agree. 6z Euro Mean also coming around. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATW Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 6z GFS with a heck of a storm from my place up towards @ATW @Niko and @jaster220. 6z GEFS looks great. We may need a thread if the 12z models agree. 6z Euro Mean also coming around. This would be nice. The trend has not been our friend but I’ve lived in Missouri long enough to see some back loaded thumps. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 @Tom @Clinton Not only does long-term SEMI climo get snowier for March, this region has gone years without even an average March. All that to say that we're overdue. If you see my other post in February thread, I'm really ready more for spring than winter. Nonetheless, I don't get to choose ofc. This GEFS scenario has all the looks of a classic hit here. Maybe even an ORD to DTW special finally. 3 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Storm next week sure looks interesting for somebody. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z GFS keeps the storm track close to the same, CMC and ICON are further south. 12z GEFS looks encouraging. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 5 hours ago, Tom said: Is March rolling in like a Lion or Lamb this year??? As we close out Met Winter in a few days, how will nature treat us as we enter Met Spring? Let me give you a quick clue...#delayedspring....head to Florida and the Southeast for Spring Break action! #beachtime As has been the case in recent years, the same ugly and chilly pattern appears to be taking over as the effects of the SSW event and High Latitude Blocking will allow the seasonal slowing of the jet stream to mature. This will undoubtedly produce some fascinating weather this month. The battle of the seasons will be heightened across the S Plains and into the Southeast but in the Heartland of the Nation, I see some bonafide Spring Winter Storms brewing. It appears MAR is trying to open like a Lion as the models are starting to dial up another TX Panhandle Hook. Let's discuss... 0z EPS starting to trend a bit more interesting... @MIKEKC @Clinton 0z GEFS continues to lead the pack...in fact, the 0z GFS op is dialing a major storm for the S MW up into the Lower Lakes... @Niko @jaster220 and the Detroit crew are in a good spot IMHO... 06z GFS... This board is going to remain busy this month and the storm parade is not letting up as we progress through mid month. March Madness in the weather dept! What is wrong with the GFS image? It's messing my mind up! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Man what's been up with these last few winters? December, January, and February have constantly been "everything's about to line up! just wait it's going to be epic!" and then at the end of February and in March it all starts to line up. Way too late for any of it to matter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z GFS keeps the storm track close to the same, CMC and ICON are further south. Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so). 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 12z EPS just took a massive leap towards the GEFS…time to whip up a storm thread! I’m out so anyone else that wants to go right ahead. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 58 minutes ago, mlgamer said: Clinton, I'm thinking this is the Nov 26th system using the LRC...right? If so, it makes sense this would just miss me to the southeast and put you in a fairly good place. GFS/Euro 500mb forecast maps match up pretty well with Nov26/27 (roughly 97/98 days or so). Yes I just hope it's cold enough this time! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 Wagons north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Tom said: 12z EPS just took a massive leap towards the GEFS…time to whip up a storm thread! I’m out so anyone else that wants to go right ahead. @TomStarted one...ready to Rock N Roll..... 1 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted February 26, 2023 Report Share Posted February 26, 2023 26 minutes ago, Niko said: @TomStarted one...ready to Rock N Roll..... Where did you start it? I'm not seeing it for some reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, KTPmidMO said: Where did you start it? I'm not seeing it for some reason. It needs to be pinned by staff 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 3 hours ago, Sparky said: Some are saying that la Nina should end this spring, which I would welcome as it seems summer droughts are more likely here during la Nina. I'm tired of droughts in the summer or anytime for that matter, and I'm hoping this summer will have more storms. Oh man Sparky, the entire State of Texas supports you on this! We’re sick of it! Edit: Almost 11 pm and 71*. Forecast is 81* tomorrow. Is this crazy or what? Oh, and fog. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Woke up to the sound of a massive bolt of lighting that struck right at 3:45am....it literally shook me outta bed! Ahh, the sights and sounds of Spring are here...well, at least for today as we head up to hear 60F as the main low tracks nearly overhead around Noon. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 27, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Hmmm, some changes in the -PNA are showing up which will alleviate that pesky SER as we near the 8th-11th period where I anticipate a large scale storm to develop across the Heartland of our Great Nation. 0z EPS snow mean is fully onboard that its gonna continue to SNOW where those who have been missed...let's see, bc this pattern setting up is prob the most favorable and last time of the season to try and enjoy a snowfall for a few days before it melts away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 27, 2023 Report Share Posted February 27, 2023 Talk about contrast. Texas Panhandle - This week, the region has been blanketed in a thick layer of dust kicked up by powerful winds that reached as high of 69 miles per hour. Then North Texas receives a thunderstorm and heavy rain and lightning last night. Something for everyone. We’ll reach 75 today and a low of 47. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 28, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 The Euro Weeklies from last night...let's just say, March will be an exciting month of weather for the central CONUS and the Heartland of the Nation. Coast-to-Coast action along with MUCH satisfaction in the weather dept! It all begins as we open up the month tomorrow as a powerful trough "Rounds the Bend" of the west coast and into the SW region... 0z EPS....post 8th is when Winter Returns for the Central Plains/MW....you can give thanks to the stout -NAO/-EPO in tandem working together and Blocking up the wx pattern. Buckle Up! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Round Two! March will live up to the Lion entering the South and Southeast. Severe storms will strike E. Texas this week with a high of 83 today Wednesday will see a 30%, then 70% chance of rain with Thursday giving us severe storms. The storms will likely intensify as they push east. And the South will face threat of tornadoes again. Battening down this week! Edit: It could get ugly. I’m expecting Twisters 1 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 As we move into March, Topeka is sitting at it's 3rd least snowiest winter over the past 25 years. Of course, that could change before the end of the season. Five least snowiest winters in Topeka over the last 25 years: 11-12: 3.1" 15-16: 4.9" 22-23: 5.8" 16-17: 6.6" 17-18: 8.1" (Also note that this list of five includes three consecutive winters: 15-16, 16-17, 17-18) 1 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Scored another WWA for tonight-tomorrow. 3-5" expected 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Stupid Groundhog was right. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 That stupid ground hog is better than any weather model 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: However, there have been ensemble consistent trends for several days (honest longer), that cooler weather will settle into the area about mid-next week. Temperatures in day 7 will show signs of slipping, but the colder air looks most likely to move in just outside this 7-day forecast period. Below normal temperatures will likely last at least a couple of weeks per long-term ensembles, meaning the middle of March will have a more winter feel than spring feel. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 28, 2023 Report Share Posted February 28, 2023 Our max today is 84*. Just came in from outside and it's very dry air for us at 12%, wind at 8mph.Wednesday will be uneventful 30% chance of rain, maybe 6* cooler. However Thursday is the big dog. Cooler air High 77* But wind will pick up to 25 as the little dog runs for East Texas. Big dog will catch up and the clash will result in some hail, high winds, possibility of tornadoes further east imo, but we aren't exempt. I feel bad for those east of Texas as the moist southern air will clash with what I'm feeling out there right now. Dry, somewhat suffocating air. Way too early for this combo of dry air, heat, and a cold front. Never a good sign down here. On a positive note. The wild plums are blooming. It's officially Spring! 4 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 3-5" tomorrow.....keep er moving eh 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 0z EPS...Ol' Man Winter ain't giving up just yet..."Choo-Choo" Storm parade...post 8th is when many on here south of MN/SD will see it Snowing...welcoming daylight savings on the 12th in a Nasso Spring-like way... @Black Hole @OKwx2k4@Iceresistance Could you guys in Okie land have one last hoorah??? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 A 114 mph microburst struck Memphis, Tx. during the dust storm this week. I can’t imagine how that felt. I’ve been in a small one, but this must have been a blast furnace. Memphis is located in the SW corner of the Panhandle. 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Welcome to meteorological spring. A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 42 minutes ago, westMJim said: Welcome to meteorological spring. A brief recap of meteorological winter. This past winter was a very mild one with a mean of 30.9 that was above the average mean of 37.3. The highest temperature during this past meteorological winter was 54 on December 29,30 and February 14. The lowest temperature of +2 was on January 31st. There was a total of 58.1” of snow fall during meteorological winter. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 43/33 there was a trace of snow fall. The sun was out 44% of the time and there was a trace of snow on the ground. The over nigh low was a mild one with a low of 34 and there was around 0.02” of rain fall. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967 and the record snow fall amount of 7.4” fell in 2015 Looking like another delayed spring for a few weeks at least. At least below normal means low to mid 30's now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Heading up into the upper 50's this afternoon and there is bountiful sunshine out there this morning. I could really get used to this! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee_CHI Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 As a Cali native, this is absolutely amazing to see! I forgot it was possible for this area to be green and snow covered, so pretty! Additionally, I was woken up around 1 am to the loudest clap(s) of thunder ever. All the car alarms were going off on my street, and I was able to get this next strike on video! I literally can’t wait for severe wx season, hoping I get some good pics this year with my new camera! IMG_6049.MOV 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Exceptional drought now for Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 1, 2023 Author Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Gosh, if I hadn’t of baked some chicken the other day, I’d be soo grilling right now out on the deck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 1, 2023 Report Share Posted March 1, 2023 Duluth now challenging all time snow depth for the date. 29" at noon and still snowing hard. The 36" on at 12Z on the 2nd may be challenged. KDLH 011855Z 07016G25KT 1/4SM R09/2800V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 SLP111 P0002 T10611083 KDLH 011844Z 07018G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT -SN BLSN VV010 M06/M08 A2979 RMK AO2 PK WND 07029/1807 P0002 T10561083 KDLH 011755Z 06016G23KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT SN BLSN VV008 M06/M08 A2980 RMK AO2 PK WND 07028/1737 SLP114 SNINCR 1/29 P0005 60025 T10561078 11044 21061 53002 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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