March 2023 Observations and Discussion

[chescowxman]

If any comfort for team snow...we are not alone in our snow drought here in 2022/23. Below are other Northeast Corridor locations and their current vs. (average) snow to date

Chester County PA 2.7" (31.0") / Allentown 6.3" (28.2") / Philadelphia 0.3" (20.5") / NYC Central Park 2.3" (26.1") /LGA NY 3.3" (25.7") / JFK NY 2.0" (22.4") / Newark NJ 2.3" (27.2") / Bridgeport CT 4.9" (27.9") / Boston 11.9" (41.4") / Providence RI 11.5" (31.7")

[hawkstwelve]

We have officially crossed the 40 degree mark for our average high temp. Unfortunately, it looks like we will have some trouble hitting that average high as we remain below normal at least through early next week.

It's currently a flat 32 degrees with a slight breeze. We had some flurries earlier this morning but the lower levels have dried up a bit under the stratus layer. Pretty quiet day today before we look at 2-5 inches of snow moving in later tonight and tomorrow.

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS showing upper 70s in the extended.

Yes please.

[Andie]

Mets kinda missed the mark.  
We’re sitting at 43.  
A humid 65%
Wind at 12. 
Rain NNE of DFW but it will slide into Oklahoma.  Eck.  

[westMJim]

Good morning. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 44/24 there was no rain/snow fall. And there was 90% of possible sunshine. The overnight low and current temperature here in MBY is 32 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is now up to 42/25 the record high of 68 was set in 2000 and the record low of -7 was set in 1996 the record snow fall amount of 8.2” fell in 1998. Today should be cloudy with a cool NE wind and high near 40. Snow looks to move in later today and overnight and might drop up to 6” of snow. So it looks like Grand Rapids will be moving closer to that 100” mark for snow fall for the season.

[chescowxman]

Yesterday was our 1st below normal day of the month....but far from our last. It looks like a sustained stretch of below normal temperatures are on tap for one of few times this non-winter season here in Chester County. It looks like yet another wintry mix arriving later tomorrow PM with maybe a slushy small accumulation especially in NW Chesco in elevations over 600 ft ASL. The real accumulation will be about 20 miles north of here in Lehigh County. More wintry mix is possible on Sunday night but again just a slushy small accumulation.

Records for today: High 78.4 (2016) / Low 4 degrees (1984)/ Precipitation 1.86" (1919) / Snow 6.0" (1976)

[Tom]

We had a wonderful day out here in the PHX valley and topped out in the low 70's.  Lot's of Spring breakers and Snow birds in town as it seems like everyone has come out of hybernation!  While I was at the pool yesterday catching up with all the locals (even the regular snow birds), all of them were complaining how bad and ugly this Winter has been here in Arizona.  Its a catch 22 bc you want to nature deliver moisture and abundance but then you have to deal with the rain and colder weather.  As the saying goes, your patience will be rewarded.  Well, that appears to be what is coming down the road as we enter the official time of astronomical Spring (3/20).  Let's take a look...

The JMA weeklies are suggesting that good ol' SW ridge to pop and potentially Lock for a good while out here as we move into April.  Unfortunately, for a lot of you out in the Heartland of the Nation, it doesn't look to nice.  Where was this in Winter?

 

 

 

Euro Weeklies are singing a similar tune, but there is somewhat of a decent signal that it warms up by the time we flip the calendar into April for parts of the MW/GL's.  

 

500mb pattern from 3/20 into late April...

 

[Tom]

Took some cool vids and pics as we took off from ORD…

   

 

As we approached the SW, the mountains of NM and AZ were caked with a lot of snow.  Over the past 15+ years of flying down here, I’ve never seen this much snow and at such low elevations.

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

[Black Hole]

Our next severe storm risk will be Saturday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough erodes some mid level CIN. Some pretty good MUCAPE develops, perhaps 1000-1500 J/kg. We should be able to see some marginally severe hail develop in this setup. 

[Black Hole]

1 minute ago, MIKEKC said:

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

This run does show some sleet down here, but I am not expecting it to actually happen. More likely it'll turn into another CA atmospheric river in a few days lol. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

Doh, I totally thought this weekend was St Patty's day bc in Chicago they are dyeing the river green this Saturday.  My bad!

[MIKEKC]

Some decent signs for some late season cold...

[sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, MIKEKC said:

Finish with a bang here in KC???

Could there be a winter storm brewing for St. Patrick's Day in the heartland? 

Lol.  

[Andie]

La Niña is officially over!
Hopefully the drought is on its way out!   

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

[Sparky]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Took some cool vids and pics as we took off from ORD…

IMG_2854.MOV 7.05 MB · 1 download

  IMG_2853.MOV 4 MB · 1 download  

 

As we approached the SW, the mountains of NM and AZ were caked with a lot of snow.  Over the past 15+ years of flying down here, I’ve never seen this much snow and at such low elevations.

 

 

IMG_2856.MOV 10.33 MB · 0 downloads IMG_2858.MOV 6.63 MB · 1 download

IMG_2860.MOV 5.5 MB · 0 downloads IMG_2863.MOV 5.03 MB · 0 downloads

Thanks for the photos/videos. You must be like me because I love having a window seat to see and record the beauty of the landscape, nature, and weather from above. 

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Thanks for the photos/videos. You must be like me because I love having a window seat to see and record the beauty of the landscape, nature, and weather from above. 

Always!  Plus, you sorta get a bigger area to sit in and can lean against the window.  

[mlgamer]

Winter 22-23 Fun Facts for Topeka!

• Greatest snowfall: 1.5" (Dec 22)
• Last snowfall 1" or greater: 1.1" (Jan 24/25)
• Total snow since January 26: 0.6"

(See my sig line for more gory details...)

 

[jaster220]

LOL. GFS at h384 has a 982 SLP bombing Detroit with hvy snow. This is really getting stupid now. All the missing March snow for many years coming all at once. Seriously tho 

[Grizzcoat]

Next Sat AM--- OUCH--

[gimmesnow]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. GFS at h384 has a 982 SLP bombing Detroit with hvy snow. This is really getting stupid now. All the missing March snow for many years coming all at once. Seriously tho 

Oh man the first year I started looking at models I thought I would be snowboarding into April and it was going to be the most epic March ever, lol.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Grizzcoat]

Duluth is truly in different world when it comes to consecutive days of snow depth etc. Instead of 1" -- let's use 20" --(most people reading this have NEVER seen a 20" snow depth ONE TIME)  totally nuts. They make a run at top 2 for sure. Amazing

4 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

 

[chescowxman]

We may see a few wet snow flakes mixed in at the start of the rain early this afternoon and again towards tomorrow morning as the storm pulls away. Otherwise, a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will continue for at least the next couple weeks. Another storm will impact us Sunday night into Monday.

Records for today: High 79.2 (2016) / Low 4 below zero (1984) / Precipitation 1.47" (1952) / Snow 13.3" (1907)

[Tom]

8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Next Sat AM--- OUCH--

Happy St Patty's weekend!  Brrr!

[Tom]

All the years I've been coming to the PHX Valley, I've never seen the Salt River Project release water from the reservoirs.  This is the second largest snowpack in over 30 years!

 

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/srp-releasing-water-from-reservoir-to-make-room-for-anticipated-runoff

 

 

[westMJim]

With the type of snow that fell last night I don’t know how much actually fell, but I took several measurements around the yard. And there is between 5 to 5.5” of snow on the ground here.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids for yesterday was 42/30 there was 0.15” of precipitation before midnight that fell as a reported 3” of snow fall. There was 16% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in my yard was 30 and as I stated I have between 5 to 5.5” of snow on the ground. At the current time light snow is fall here with a temperature of 30. For today the average H/L is 42/25 the record high of 69 was set way back in 1894 in 2^nd place is the 67 recorded in 2021. The record low of +3 was in 1972 The is the 1^st time in the year that the low for the day is above zero.  The weekend and the start of next week look to be below average with a chance of some more snow on Sunday night into Monday. It should moderate to near average by mid week.

 

 

[MIKEKC]

GFS still showing some potential one week from today, a rather strong push of cold air and a possible storm...

Another good snow coming for Iowa tomorrow? May sneak into northern MO. KC will be close to some snow tomorrow morning as temps will be near 32 as moisture moves in. 

[james1976]

As much as I love snow I'm ready for warmer temps and t-storms!

[MIKEKC]

If we can keep this a storm in about 6-7 days, it appears it will have much colder air to work with in the heartland. 

[jaster220]

22 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Oh man the first year I started looking at models I thought I would be snowboarding into April and it was going to be the most epic March ever, lol.

You missed my point. I don't want more snow. But wouldn't surprise me if it does sadly

[Tom]

The Beat goes on...how much Winter does this March have in store?  Well, there appears to be a good signal for a Spring Solstice storm to develop over the Heartland.  Spring snow for some?  

[Tom]

It is conceivable to believe that many ski resorts out west will have snow on the mountains till late in June or even July.  My guess is you'll be seeing Fireworks up in Tahoe and people skiing???   The one ski resort that had my attn all season long has been Park City.  Needless to say, they have had a tremendous amount of snow (461" and counting).    Extending their season by a couple weeks is almost a given.

https://www.parkcitymountain.com/the-mountain/mountain-conditions/terrain-and-lift-status.aspx

[Tom]

We came close but no cigar as PHX topped out at 79F due to cloud cover that hung around through midday.  That's the warmest temp it has been so far this year.  I was at Home Depot yesterday and everyone was out in the Garden Center. Spring has FINALLY sprung out here in the valley.  You can hear conversations of people talking about the weather and how delighted everyone is to finally experience warmth!  I haven't been out to Scottsdale yet but maybe today or tomorrow I'll venture out there and see how busy it is from all the visitors.  Spring Training is in full swing and the Nascar is here this weekend.  The Valley is buzzing!

 

[hawkstwelve]

Not too shabby. 

[Grizzcoat]

Literally the size of half dollars!!

[Grizzcoat]

Largest flakes I've ever seen!! Some are easily 1.5 to even 2" across!!

 

 

 

[Icewoz]

Interesting wording from DTX in this afternoon’s discussion:

“A strong southwesterly warm air advection pattern is then expected
to develop for the end of the week. Uncertainty exists on when
precipitation chances will increase as Southeast Michigan could find
itself favorably in a downstream ridge for a time with plenty of dry
air. Currently the forecast is very broadbrushed with the PoPs and
carries a risk to mischaracterize a narrative ahead of the actual
upper level low.”

[Sparky]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Largest flakes I've ever seen!! Some are easily 1.5 to even 2" across!!

 

 

 

 

I've already noticed when flakes are really big than visibility actually increases a bit since they are usually spaced further apart. Anyway, if you look up you can also see the chunks coming at you from quite a ways up.

This system wants to weaken as it moves east like models were showing. Still nothing here as there must be a dry layer aloft. 

[Black Hole]

On 3/10/2023 at 6:41 AM, Tom said:

All the years I've been coming to the PHX Valley, I've never seen the Salt River Project release water from the reservoirs.  This is the second largest snowpack in over 30 years!

 

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/srp-releasing-water-from-reservoir-to-make-room-for-anticipated-runoff

 

 

They did this a few times when I was there. I recall after a few monsoon storms this happened. It also happened in the Spring of 2020 after a reasonably wet winter. But you are correct that it means reservoirs are in good shape down there. 

[Black Hole]

Should be a few strong to severe storms, mainly for hail, popping over SE OK this evening. Probably nothing too crazy and almost certainly well south of my place.

Still looking like a pretty strong cold front next week that might be close to a snow tease but ultimately just cold rain with not much of a severe risk. 

[Grizzcoat]

Some pretty insane snow depth reports coming out of Duluth Airport -- just a few hours ago- 42" of snow on the ground 0655Z. Amazing ---this ties KDLH for all time #3 greatest single day snow depth***  (though official snow depth is taken at 6am local time) -- It's not likely to challenge 3-18/19 1965. (at least not yet) . Some incredible snow depths in that region .

KDLH 120655Z 09017KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN FEW009 BKN013 OVC021 M03/M05 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP138 SNINCR 3/42 P0004 T10331050
KDLH 120555Z 10014G22KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN BKN007 BKN010 OVC014 M04/M05 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP142 SNINCR 2/39 P0006 60026 T10391050 11039 21044 410331061 58020

*** edit that *** now all alone at #3

KDLH 120755Z 10017G24KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN VV014 M03/M05 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP128 SNINCR 1/43 P0003 T10331050

 

and then this--

KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015

 

 

[westMJim]

I slept in this morning due to the time change and a late night last night. Anyway there is a covering of snow on the ground this morning. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 39/22 there was no rain or snow fall before midnight and the day started with officially 2” of snow on the ground. Like I stated there was some light snow fall here overnight and the low here was 28 at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 32 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 43/26 the record high of 76 was set in 1990 and the record low of +2 was in 1948 and 1993. The record snow fall of just 3.2” fell in 1923. The week ahead looks to be kind of up and down with snow and rain.

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I slept in this morning due to the time change and a late night last night. Anyway there is a covering of snow on the ground this morning. For yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 39/22 there was no rain or snow fall before midnight and the day started with officially 2” of snow on the ground. Like I stated there was some light snow fall here overnight and the low here was 28 at the current time there is some light snow falling and it is 32 here. For today the average H/L is now up to 43/26 the record high of 76 was set in 1990 and the record low of +2 was in 1948 and 1993. The record snow fall of just 3.2” fell in 1923. The week ahead looks to be kind of up and down with snow and rain.

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

 

0z EPS...

[CentralNebWeather]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

 

0z EPS...

NWS Hastings and now my weather apps mentioning a potential winter storm Wednesday night into Thursday. We are on Spring Break this week so I can experience it at home if it verifies. Will always take more moisture in any form. 

[Niko]

On 3/8/2023 at 10:43 AM, chescowxman said:

If any comfort for team snow...we are not alone in our snow drought here in 2022/23. Below are other Northeast Corridor locations and their current vs. (average) snow to date

Chester County PA 2.7" (31.0") / Allentown 6.3" (28.2") / Philadelphia 0.3" (20.5") / NYC Central Park 2.3" (26.1") /LGA NY 3.3" (25.7") / JFK NY 2.0" (22.4") / Newark NJ 2.3" (27.2") / Bridgeport CT 4.9" (27.9") / Boston 11.9" (41.4") / Providence RI 11.5" (31.7")

It has been a crazy winter the whole entire i-95 corridor this year. I am from NYC and family and friends there have been telling me that all time records have been broken from this snow-drought. Just amazing.

[Black Hole]

Ended up with a decent number of hail producing storms in southeast OK last night but all is quiet today with just some clouds and a chilly north breeze.

Gradual warm up through Thursday until the next storm hits. It should be a decent rain maker but still does not look like a big severe threat to me. 

[Black Hole]

EPS says winter isn't done with a snow chance in 8-9 days or so. Climatology still says this is possible but quite unlikely, and that's probably what I would say at this point too. But with everything greening up it's probably time to move on from this crappy winter anyway. Hoping for a busy severe season! 

[Mr Marine Layer]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Same here!  Came home sorta late last night from Old Town Scottsdale and slept in till around 5:30am.  The time doesn't change here in Arizona which is one of a few states & US territories that don't change the time all year long.

Is there a St Patty's Day Blizzard looming???  The continuation of what is becoming a "Memorable March" of sorts. Depending on where you live across this board, esp those where the HIT's keep coming, I think there will be records smashed for this month in the snow dept.

@Grizzcoat, in my humble opinion, Duluth is on the verge to smash snow depth records this month....this storm has "eyes" for a Classic Upper MW Blitz.

 

 

0z EPS...

East Coast catching up.

[Grizzcoat]

15 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Some pretty insane snow depth reports coming out of Duluth Airport -- just a few hours ago- 42" of snow on the ground 0655Z. Amazing ---this ties KDLH for all time #3 greatest single day snow depth***  (though official snow depth is taken at 6am local time) -- It's not likely to challenge 3-18/19 1965. (at least not yet) . Some incredible snow depths in that region .

KDLH 120655Z 09017KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN FEW009 BKN013 OVC021 M03/M05 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP138 SNINCR 3/42 P0004 T10331050
KDLH 120555Z 10014G22KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN BKN007 BKN010 OVC014 M04/M05 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP142 SNINCR 2/39 P0006 60026 T10391050 11039 21044 410331061 58020

*** edit that *** now all alone at #3

KDLH 120755Z 10017G24KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN VV014 M03/M05 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP128 SNINCR 1/43 P0003 T10331050

 

and then this--

KDLH 120855Z 09015KT 1/2SM R09/P6000FT -SN BLSN OVC010 M03/M05 A2982 RMK AO2 SLP122 SNINCR 1/45 P0003 60010 T10331050 58015

 

 

Duluth has SMASHED this record-

55" (and likely more since this ob)

KDLH 121655Z COR 06014G26KT 1/4SM R09/2400V4500FT -SN FZFG BKN009 OVC015 M03/M06 A2983 RMK AO2 PK WND 06032/1634 SLP126 SNINCR 1/55 P0003 T10331056