January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to a balmy 43. 

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

Up to a balmy 43. 

 

Only 12 degrees warmer up here now.   

 

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM back to sending the heavy snow band way down south tomorrow night

 

 

 

Compare to 12z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM back to sending the heavy snow band way down south tomorrow night

 

 

 

Compare to 12z

 

Makes more sense. The 12z was way north of where previous runs had it.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It'll trend north like usual.  Would love to see flakes mix in in heavier showers but it's not going to happen this year.  Time to start thinking about 20-21.

[Andrew.]

Makes more sense. The 12z was way north of where previous runs had it.

 

It'll probably be somewhere in-between and end up clobbering you

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://models.weatherbell.com/hires/2019010518/portland/hires_snow_portland_49.png

[Andrew.]

It'll trend north like usual.  Would love to see flakes mix in in heavier showers but it's not going to happen this year.  Time to start thinking about 20-21.

 

Heading to my cryogenic chamber, see you guys in 2 years

[Jesse]

I’m not really too bummed by the models. At least things are looking on the wet side with some mountain snows the next 7-10 days. Maybe my standards have really lowered, but after the last year I am pretty much happy with anything besides a ridge/dry weather over us.

[snow_wizard]

Oh it'll come back...and slide east.  Our access to Arctic air continues to dwindle every year.  We might not see much of any PNW low elevation snow events going forward in our lifetimes.

 

Good grief.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It'll probably be somewhere in-between and end up clobbering you

 

That would make my day!

[snow_wizard]

This winter is absolutley puzzling.  We now have an SSW that has propagated at least down the 50mb level and yet no blocking in the models.  The deep solar min also argues for massive blocking and yet nothing.  Many people thought this would be a 1978-79 type winter (or at least that magnitude of blocking) and yet it's a huge bust so far.

[snow_wizard]

Oh crap...the governemnt shutdown is starting to effect many of the forecast tools I like to use.  Already two things I went to check today are down.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oh crap...the governemnt shutdown is starting to effect many of the forecast tools I like to use.  Already two things I went to check today are down.

 

What do you want more? The wall or some weather websites?

[Andrew.]

Ummmmm check out the low placement on the 20z HRRR

 

[BLI snowman]

I’m not really too bummed by the models. At least things are looking on the wet side with some mountain snows the next 7-10 days. Maybe my standards have really lowered, but after the last year I am pretty much happy with anything besides a ridge/dry weather over us.

 

It doesn't really look meaningfully wet going forward. Going to continue to operate at about 75-85% of average, as we did through most of December. Certainly nothing that looks to put a real dent in the recent deficits.

 

A ridge with dry weather would at least feel wintry. It's becoming a real struggle to maintain

[snow_wizard]

What do you want more? The wall or some weather websites?

 

I'm willing to make this sacrifice, but it's a bad time of year for it.

[TT-SEA]

It doesn't really look meaningfully wet going forward. Going to continue to operate at about 75-85% of average, as we did through most of December. Certainly nothing that looks to put a real dent in the recent deficits.

 

A ridge with dry weather would at least feel wintry. It's becoming a real struggle to maintain

 

 

Yeah... it does not look real wet at all.

[snow_wizard]

The atmosphere is just a chopped up mess right now.  There are only a couple of notable anamalous cold areas over the land in the NH...Eastern Europe and somewhat over Siberia.  A lof of the coldest anoms are over the ocean which is not good at all.

 

 

[MossMan]

Nice place. Probably a little above my price range, but I could probably afford something with 5-10 acres and a similar house in that area.

 

Our company has been doing a lot of contract work with the state of Washington, and I've let them know if we every expand into the state I would be interested.

 

I am pretty happy with where I am now though I do not have the time I would like to have to work on the property so that is one of my frustrations. Like today. My wife is coming off back to back doubles, so I have to watch the baby all day. That tends to be the story of my weekends, which is fine, but it seems like nothing ever gets done around here. Especially this time of year, when it is dark by the time I get home from work during the week. Combined with my travel schedule which ends up taking me out of town on average of about 5-7 days a month.

Yeah I get the lack of time to work on the property...it has been a HUGE help moving my mom in with us. That is another reason why we looked at that place near Big Lake, it had a large separate MIL with the large shop (oh how I wish I had that shop) so when we bought our new place we converted the large open room that was used as their tv/entertainment area into a walled off MIL area with a full bath, kitchenette, and small bedroom and then moved her in. She is our childcare which is sooo convenient! Basically my mom lives rent free and in trade we don’t have to pay for childcare. So far it has been working out very well!

 

Anyway weather wise it’s partly cloudy, no wind, and mild currently.

[Perturbed Member]

Makes more sense. The 12z was way north of where previous runs had it.

 

Yeah it was the outlier but IMO it will probably end up trending a bit north like it almost always does. Don't think it will be nearly as much as the 12z though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I get the lack of time to work on the property...it has been a HUGE help moving my mom in with us. That is another reason why we looked at that place near Big Lake, it had a large separate MIL with the large shop (oh how I wish I had that shop) so when we bought our new place we converted the large open room that was used as their tv/entertainment area into a walled off MIL area with a full bath, kitchenette, and small bedroom and then moved her in. She is our childcare which is sooo convenient! Basically my mom lives rent free and in trade we don’t have to pay for childcare. So far it has been working out very well!

 

Anyway weather wise it’s partly cloudy, no wind, and mild currently.

 

Very cool. Part of the reason we work opposite schedules is so we don't have to pay for childcare. 

[Front Ranger]

Lol, that’s urban af. Those buildings are much larger than anything within at least 7 miles of here, and this is the nation’s capital. And there are essentially no trees in that picture that weren’t planted by humans. I’m sort of cloistered off from the city here, but still.

 

Isn't that because DC has a strict building height restriction?

[Andrew.]

holy crap! Check out the winds in the southern part of the central valley

 

[Front Ranger]

Pt Townsend is nice. Went there for the first time last summer. That park with the old army barracks is pretty cool!

 

Fort Flagler? Went there on an overnight field trip in high school, definitely a cool place.

[MossMan]

Probably a non event north of Seattle and not looking at any gusts higher than 30 north of Portland.

 

On the other hand this is a weird low and the gradients look wind wave friendly, but Cliff Mass doesn’t know weather.

Do you think we might have some surprise winds up here?

[Deweydog]

I’d rather see them sink the $5,000,000,000 earmarked for the wall into GFS upgrades.

[Jesse]

It doesn't really look meaningfully wet going forward. Going to continue to operate at about 75-85% of average, as we did through most of December. Certainly nothing that looks to put a real dent in the recent deficits.

 

A ridge with dry weather would at least feel wintry. It's becoming a real struggle to maintain

Good points. I should be more bummed. Will work on it.

[Timmy]

I’d rather see them sink the $5,000,000,000 earmarked for the wall into GFS upgrades.

we just need to sign a petition to send trump stating that Europe is kicking our Fannies in weather models. I bet he would make it happen.

[Deweydog]

we just need to sign a petition to send trump stating that Europe is kicking our Fannies in weather models. I bet he would make it happen.

Push that ***** out to 720 hours.

[Deweydog]

Get out and soak up those last couple days of 45 degree average highs, boys. Times they’re about to be changin’.

[BLI snowman]

holy crap! Check out the winds in the southern part of the central valley

 

 

Those are 850mb wind speeds. 10m wind speeds are much lower, generally 25-30kts sustained at the peak across the valley. With that, one would probably expect peak gusts in the 45-55mph range. Looks about right.

 

[BLI snowman]

Good points. I should be more bummed. Will work on it.

 

No, you should just call it as you see it. The weather doesn't care what optimistic or pessimistic slant you want to put onto it.

[Phil]

This winter is absolutley puzzling. We now have an SSW that has propagated at least down the 50mb level and yet no blocking in the models. The deep solar min also argues for massive blocking and yet nothing. Many people thought this would be a 1978-79 type winter (or at least that magnitude of blocking) and yet it's a huge bust so far.

Keep in mind two things.

 

1) This SSW (like many others) was not single massive knockout punch via upward WAFz forcing from the troposphere (like last year). It was modest WAFz forcing that was amplified within the stratosphere itself (by the timing of waves and the antecedent boundary conditions). So essentially, the PV self-destructed. It will therefore rely more on the top-down propagation, slowly flipping the NAM/AO and accelerating the mass circulation to feed back on the tropical forcing and middle latitude waveguide. This process often takes 3-4 weeks when carried out this way, and the SSW took place over New Years. So..yeah, patience is required for us blocking fans.

 

2) The low solar = blocking stuff isn’t linear. There are a multitude of time lags and additional forcings that must be considered. Recall the last solar minimum didn’t really leave a low frequency imprint on the upper levels and NAM until 2008/09, and that was after SC23 had ended and SC24 had begun (not to mention the long tail on SC23). The big blocking might not get going until next winter and the winter afterwards. And next winter looks like a hefty niño anyway, barring something unusual.

 

FWIW, that strong cold season vortex over NE-Canada in recent years has weakened notably this winter, which is a good sign as the boreal winter NAO has historically been an precursory indicator of the future NPAC/NAO mode(s) on a low frequency basis. So there’s a good reason to believe we’ll be leaving that pattern behind sooner rather than later, even if it isn’t a clean break.

[ShawniganLake]

Forecast for southern Vancouver Island is calling for 55mph gusts tomorrow. Seems to be on the high end of what I would expect with this.

[Jesse]

No, you should just call it as you see it. The weather doesn't care what optimistic or pessimistic slant you want to put onto it.

I was. Never had too high of hopes for the winter, and am pretty sick of ridging after 20ridgeteen. Will try to enjoy the near average precip and actual weather systems at times before the annual warm season perma ridge sets in at some point in April.

[Phil]

Isn't that because DC has a strict building height restriction?

Yeah, though I’m not sure if that’s the case here in Montgomery County. There are some more urban areas up-county and in Fairfax/Loudoun, but the majority of this area is woodland with scattered 1-2 story buildings interspersed throughout it. Very densely populated but doesn’t look that way at all, especially towards Glen Echo where it’s all thick trees, old infrastructure, and skinny, windy, hilly single lane streets.

[Front Ranger]

Keep in mind two things.

 

1) This SSW (like many others) was not single massive knockout punch via upward WAFz forcing from the troposphere (like last year). It was modest WAFz forcing that was amplified within the stratosphere itself (by the timing of waves and the antecedent boundary conditions). So essentially, the PV self-destructed. It will therefore rely more on the top-down propagation, slowly flipping the NAM/AO and accelerating the mass circulation to feed back on the tropical forcing and middle latitude waveguide. This process often takes 3-4 weeks when carried out this way, and the SSW took place over New Years. So..yeah, patience is required for us blocking fans.

 

2) The low solar = blocking stuff isn’t linear. There are a multitude of time lags and additional forcings that must be considered. Recall the last solar minimum didn’t really leave a low frequency imprint on the upper levels and NAM until 2008/09, and that was after SC23 had ended and SC24 had begun (not to mention the long tail on SC23). The big blocking might not get going until next winter and the winter afterwards. And next winter looks like a hefty niño anyway, barring something unusual.

 

FWIW, that strong cold season vortex over NE-Canada in recent years has weakened notably this winter, which is a good sign as the boreal winter NAO has historically been an precursory indicator of the future NPAC/NAO mode(s) on a low frequency basis. So there’s a good reason to believe we’ll be leaving that pattern behind sooner rather than later, even if it isn’t a clean break.

 

That sucker didn't keep the PNW from having a good winter in 2016-17.

[Deweydog]

Sky is getting BRIGHT!